tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-55895211920633982212024-03-08T07:34:44.300-05:00The Tampa Bay Downs HandicapperThe one and only full service subscriber site dedicated exclusively to handicapping at Tampa Bay Downs.
Email: thetbdhandicapper@gmail.comJohn J Barilehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02240001070899763886noreply@blogger.comBlogger219125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5589521192063398221.post-50276282422229351432009-12-22T06:22:00.001-05:002009-12-22T06:24:00.235-05:00Visit my new Tampa handicapping website.The Tampa Bay Downs Handicapper<br /><a href="http://www.thetbdhandicapper.com/">www.thetbdhandicapper.com</a>John J Barilehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02240001070899763886noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5589521192063398221.post-64487013480104275372009-05-03T17:00:00.009-04:002009-05-08T10:01:34.978-04:00Tampa Bay Downs Results - 05/03/092008-2009 & 2007-2008<br />Prime Wager Results 80-250 (32%) +11.80 (80-34-35) (60% ITM)<br /><br />2008-2009 Seasonal Recap:<br />307 Structured Winning Wagers<br />(1 of every 3 races after Scratches)<br /><br />106 Winners (Average Payoff $6.00)<br />142 Exactas (Average Payoff $29.90)<br />55 Trifectas (Average Payoff $135.80)<br />4 Daily Doubles (Average Payoff $18.10)<br /><br />On Sunday, my prime wager in the 11th, Storm Thief, was out of the money, and my soft wager in the 3rd, Fortunate Trail won and paid $3.00.<br /><br />Among my contenders only selections:<br /><br />My 2nd race $6 saver exacta returned $23.60,<br />My 3rd race $16 trifecta box returned $14.60,<br />I had the winner of the 5th, Make My Day, $5.00, and<br />I had the winner of the 10th, That's My Man, $6.40<br /><br />So it goes...<br /><br />As we close the door on another season, I want to take this opportunity to thank everyone for their support of the website, the email, the phone calls, etc... There is nothing more valuable to a handicapper than the ability to listen carefully to someone else's opinion. Have a great summer and fall and I'll see you in December with my redesigned, tricked out, better than ever website. Subscribers will be sent the 2009-2010 Handicapping Package, including the revised Trainer Profiles as soon as they are completed.<br /><br />Good luck and good racing!<br /><br />Johnny B.John J Barilehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02240001070899763886noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5589521192063398221.post-48249254316419543252009-05-02T16:53:00.022-04:002009-05-03T18:04:20.065-04:00Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 05/03/092008-2009<br />Prime Wager Results.15-38 (40%) -$7.20 (15-4-8) (71% ITM)<br />Soft Wager Results....21-70 (30%) -$20.20 (21-16-9) (66% ITM)<br /><br />Seasonal Recap:<br />302 Structured Winning Wagers<br />(1 of every 3 races after Scratches)<br /><br />103 Winners (Average Payoff $6.00)<br />141 Exactas (Average Payoff $30.00)<br />54 Trifectas (Average Payoff $138.30)<br />4 Daily Doubles (Average Payoff $18.10)<br /><br />2007-2008<br />Prime Wager Results 65-211(30.8%) +$20.00 (65-30-27) (57.8% ITM)<br /><br />On Saturday, my prime wager in the 3rd, Three On A Match, won and paid $9.40 and my prime wager in the 5th, Doctor Carina settled for third.<br /><br />Among my contenders only selections:<br /><br />My 3rd race $6 exacta key returned $25.00,<br />I had the winner of the 6th, Celebration Dance, $8.40,<br />My 8th race $4 saver exacta returned $8.40,<br />My 10th race $4 saver exacta returned $56.40<br /><br />So it goes...<br /><br />There is only 1 more race day of free selections before The Tampa Bay Downs Handicapper becomes a subscription only site. Avoid the annual subscription price increase (to $99 after May 3rd) and subscribe today for $25.<br /><br />Sunday’s selections at <a href="http://www.thetbdhandicapper.com/">http://www.thetbdhandicapper.com/</a> :<br /><br />1st Contenders Only (D) – Roman Scorpian (2) just missed in debut and %E is ideal for the stretchout to 8.18F. Had the best fig in the field (by my numbers) and goes for Horacio Barbaran who wins 17% with maiden claimers. Bailey’s Pepper (3) has %E that is near the upper limit for today’s distance but is still in the zone. Sheds 15 lbs. with Schorr up and Faith had two winners and four ITM in three days this week. Early Again (9) raced forwardly at the route on off tracks in last two and has virtues that are inconspicuous. Big Cash (10) has blown his cover after almost stealing one at today’s distance at 24-1 in last. Scace will be trying again today. Rice has Frazil (7) ML 9-2 but she has not won a Sprint-to-Route in L4T. Win (2), Saver Exactas 3,9,10/2 and Trifectas 2,10/1,7/2,3,9,10<br /><br />2nd – Contenders Only (C) – Sweetasnails (6) goes for Chad Stewart and he wins 18% with Turf-to-Dirt runners and 18% (55%ITM) with dropdowns. Switch to #2 leading jockey Ronnie Allen Jr. adds value. Sweetasnails was ITM in first three starts and if she isn’t discouraged she’ll be right there. Win (6), Saver Exactas 1,7,12/6 and Trifectas 6,12/1,7,8,9,11/6,12<br /><br />3rd – A soft wager – Fortunate Trail (8) is in rare form and is strictly the one to beat. Was above par in last three. Ziadie wins 35% (52%ITM) rightback. Leading Owner Richard Averill has 37% winners this season. Hot apprentice Faith Schorr brings him home at 106 lbs. Win (8), Saver Exactas 3,4,5/8 and Trifecta Box 3,4,5,8.<br /><br />4th – Contenders Only (B) – Palace Cat (3) was gaining and just missed in Tampa grass debut and stretches out today. Was close to or above par in all four grass starts. Last fig was best among today’s field. Lerman had six turf winners in previous two seasons and is winless this year. It’s now or never. Mac Speed (4) was caught in last after chasing a slow early pace. Win (3), Saver Exactas 2,4,7/3 and Trifectas 3,4/1,2,7,10/3,4<br /><br />5th – Contenders Only (C) – Make My Day (8) had best early fractions two and three back and was shown the pecking order of things in last. Drops today and should recover from bruised ego. HVG jumps from Espirit de Mar (7) to stay with Make My Day. Williams wins 17% (58% ITM) with L1-3s and 20% (40% ITM) with dropdowns. Win (8), Saver Exactas 9,10,12/8 and Trifectas 8,9,12/1,7,10/8,9,12<br /><br />6th – Contenders Only (B) – Only four of O’Connell’s 56 winners in L3T were fastback types and none came back in <9 days. Jackies’s Causeway (9) has never come back fast in her 12 starts. I think K’OC is mistaken to try to squeeze another race out of Jackie’s Causeway before the meeting ends, so Jackie’s Causeway, ML 9-5, is my false favorite of the day. Mini Goal (2) goes for Robert Raymond and he had eight stretchout winners in L3T. Try Your Best (4) comes back fast for Bruce Alexander and he wins 26% with fastbacks. Stormy Drew (6) doesn’t look like much but she has some solid final fractions and may be there late. Win (2), Saver Exactas 4,6/2 and Trifectas 2/All/4,6<br /><br />7th – Contenders Only (C) – Dirtkicker (8) was up for the place with a par fig in last and Gatis wins 23% (46% ITM) with stretchouts. Mike Allen has the return call and the Gatis/Allen team has 2 wins and 2 seconds in 7 starts. I’m Wealthy (3) stretches out after closing nicely in last. Drops 7 lbs. in switch to hot apprentice Michele Dehn. Devilish Mecke (9) goes for Tampa veteran Emanuel Tortora (3-6 this season) and Mecke will shake off Nightmare Alley (4) early on. Win (8), Saver Exactas 3,9/8 and Trifectas 3,8/5,6,7,9/3,8,9<br /><br />8th – Contenders Only (B) – SS Seraphim (3) is simply moving through her conditions and won at today’s distance in last. Athens Two O Four (5) goes for Delacour and she had 10 layoff winners in L2T and wins 26% rightback. Will have to bring it to another level to win here. Dovita (7) has won two and had a sub-12 final fraction in last, but expectations are not high that struggling trainer Ray Tamargo Jr. will get it done here. Win (3), Saver Exactas 5,7/3 and 3,5,7/1,4/3,5,7<br /><br />9th – Contenders Only (B) – Megaconfusion (3) has good early speed and takes a drop for Freddie Hyatt who goes to Ronnie Allen Jr. to bring her home. Pearl’s Unbridled (1) improved in 2nd start at Tampa and had the best dirt fig in the field in last. Switch to Millwood is not encouraging though. Win (3), Saver Exacta 1/3 and Trifectas 1,6,9/3/1,6,8,9<br /><br />10th – Contenders Only (A) – That’s My Man (1) was at or above par, early and late, in two of last three and benefits from the inside post position here. Newcomer Jillian Andreasen goes to #2 leading rider Ronnie Allen Jr. Dead Red (10) surprised most as the sixth choice in the wagering last time out, just missing, with a 99 (today’s par is 86). Must overcome PP10 which is only 1-13 (7%) in Turf Sprints this season. Win (1), Saver Exactas 5,8,10/1 and 1/4 and Trifectas 1/5,8,9,10/5,8,9,10<br /><br />11th – A prime wager – Storm Thief (6) takes a big drop (from a par 73 to a par 65) and Mr, Allen won 38% with Layoff + Dropdown angle in L2T. Races at this level for the first time in his career. Allen’s looking to make him eligible for the $5000 starter allowance condition and hopes that no one is watching on the last day of a long season. I expect he’ll be claimed. Thief has been ITM in 7-9 at Tampa and has a clean record and looks like a winner among these. Very Arrogant (10) just hung in last, switches to Centeno, won five races as a 4YO and is ITM 50% of the time. Represents the main threat here. I said I was off Sir Swervalot (3) the moment he dropped to this level and he’s been the beaten favorite in all four since. Don’t let him take your action today! Win (6), Saver Exactas 2,10/6 and Trifectas 6,10/2,3,5/2,3,5<br /><br />Good luck and good racing!<br /><br />Johnny B.John J Barilehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02240001070899763886noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5589521192063398221.post-52010676018522322622009-04-28T20:33:00.011-04:002009-05-01T19:29:46.467-04:00Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 05/02/092008-2009<br />Prime Wager Results.14-36 (39%) -$12.60 (14-4-7) (70% ITM)<br />Soft Wager Results....21-70 (30%) -$20.20 (21-16-9) (66% ITM)<br /><br />2008-2009 Seasonal Recap: 297 Structured Winning Wagers<br />(1 out of 3 races after Scratches)<br /><br />101 Winners (Average Payoff $6.00)<br />138 Exactas (Average Payoff $30.10)<br />54 Trifectas (Average Payoff $138.30)<br />4 Daily Doubles (Average Payoff $18.10)<br /><br />2007-2008<br />Prime Wager Results 65-211(30.8%) +$20.00 (65-30-27) (57.8% ITM)<br /><br />On Tuesday, my three soft wagers ran 1st, 2nd and 3rd.<br /><br />Among my contenders only selections:<br />My 1st race $6 saver exacta returned $26.20,<br />My 2nd race $4 saver exacta returned $136.00, and<br />My 8th race $2 saver exacta returned $14.40<br /><br />So it goes...<br /><br />There are only 2 more race days of free selections before The Tampa Bay Downs Handicapper becomes a subscription only site. Avoid the annual subscription price increase (to $99 after May 3rd) and subscribe today for $25.<br /><br />Saturday’s selections at <a href="http://www.thetbdhandicapper.com/">http://www.thetbdhandicapper.com/</a> :<br /><br />1st – Contenders Only (C) – Petit Roman (2) had %E of 51.13% on off track in debut at 6F and that is very close to today’s ideal %E for 8.5F which is 51.05%. HVG has the return call and he was ITM seven times in last three race days, as many of the leaders are moving on. I know he’ll be looking to clean up this last weekend. Bullseye Boy (9) was closest to par in last two. Unspacely (8) has %E that is outside the upper parameter for today’s distance. Win (2), Saver Exacta 9/2 and Trifectas 2,9/1,10,12/1,2,9,10,12<br /><br />2nd – Contenders Only (B) – Catch a Peek (2) has been ITM in last three with Centeno up and O’Connell/Centeno team is 68% ITM this season. Catch a Peek won two of last ten, the best record among these. Deus Vult (5) had the best fig in the field in last and goes for Lynn Scace who wins 22% with fastbacks and 24% with stretchouts. Deserves another chance in second try at the N1Y level. Photo Image (11) is the wildcard here. Ness won two last year with Photo Image after claiming her for Sukharan for $25,000. She was trounced as the beaten favorite in last after racing well all winter. Ness has his best winning angle %’s going here, but this a negative drop to me. I just can’t put her on top. Win (2), Saver Exactas 5,11/2 and Trifectas 2/5,6,7,8,11,12/5,11<br /><br />3rd – A prime wager – Three On a Match (3) comes back fast after having the best fig in the field in last. Also had two of the best final fractions in the field after racing into fast early paces in last two (including the last that went on a Turf course with a -12 variant). Griffin had two fastback wins in L2T. Butler is a solid 10% turf rider. Win (3), Exactas 3/1,4,5 and Trifectas 3/1,4,5/2,8,9<br /><br />4th – Contenders Only (C) – Deep Silence (3) was blocked for a time in the stretch, swung wide for racing room and was up for 2nd in a photo in last. Comes back fast for Hayford who will be trying again today. Mr. Georges Dreams (6) has figs that are good enough to put these away and has HVG in the irons today. Win (3), Saver Exacta 6/3 and Trifectas 3,6/2,5,7,8,10/3,6<br /><br />5th – A prime wager – Doctor Carina (1) was shuffled back for racing room in the backstretch and on the far turn, was 8th entering, got thru in the stretch and finished very strongly but was too late in last. Final fraction in that one was an untouchable 11.68. Centeno has the return call. Pink Tights (7) was covered up entering, swung wide for racing room in the stretch and was flying late to be up for 2nd in last. Tights is the main threat here. O’Connell has 9-2 ML SS Royal Endeavor (2) but she won only 9% coming rightback in L3T and only 11% with L1-3’s. Win (1), Exacta Box 1,7 and Trifectas 1/All/7 and 1/2,7/2,7<br /><br />6th – Contenders Only (C) – Celebration Dance (7) just missed in first race at this level and is 8-10 ITM at Tampa now and has eight 2nds in 20 starts. Scace and Mike Allen team up for the win here. Too Much Zip (4) has powerful Ness angles going (Route-to-Sprint 50% and Fastback 32%) and Zip had solid fig in N2L win two back. Tangerine Rose (9) had two solid efforts before tiring at 7F. Shortens up today and goes for Scace who wins 24% (51% ITM) with L1-3’s. Asteria Meadow (1) had a big winning fig in last but Ubide has not won rightback in L3T. Win (7), Saver Exactas 4,9/7 and Trifectas 4,7/4,7,9/1,3,9,10<br /><br />7th – Contenders Only (C) – Dennis Manning has Victory Alleged (8) and he will be ready. Victory came off a long layoff to be 2nd in last year’s Chris Thomas Turf Classic and 13 of 18 of Manning’s wins in L4T were Layoffs. Earned an honest 90 in Tampa Bay in February, running down the leader after staying close to the fast pace throughout. Sporting Art (5) likes to go long and leaves Graded Stakes company for Clement, who has been flawless this season. Centeno was up for 10 of his 12 wins. Sir Dave (3) had monstrous final fractions of 11.76 and 11.33 in last two on the grass and is on the way up. PID’s 2008 riding champion Dale V. Beckner has the call aboard Fierce Wind who is FTT today and who is to question William Phipps and his 62% win record. Win (8), Exacta Box 3,5,8 and Trifectas 3,5,8/1a,2,4/3,5,8<br /><br />8th – Contenders Only (D) – Cayo Costa (5) was 2nd best in debut and stretches out for Julie Luhr here. Luhr has had several stretchout winners in L2T and I’m sure she would like to see longtime Breeder/Owner Stella F. Thayer go home happy this afternoon. Win (5), Saver Exacta 4,6/5 and Trifectas 5,6/3,4/3,4,5,6<br /><br />9th – Contenders Only (C) – Therecomesatiger (2) was beaten by the heavily favored and well backed Baron Von Tap last time out and was simply outgunned in that one. Has a softer spot here. Liquid Amber (5) had sub-12 final fractions all last summer and has been working well for return. Alexander has lots of Layoff winners, and Centeno is 63% ITM with Alexander’s runners. Transit of Venus (8) is 58% ITM on the grass and drew off smartly in last two. Can’t be left out. Win (2), Saver Exactas 5,8/2 and Trifectas 2,8/2,5,8,9/2,5,8,9<br /><br />10th – Contenders Only (C) – Ay Papi (8) was above par in 4 of last 6 dirt routes and has been working well for return. Alexander goes to Centeno again. 3F work from the gate on 4/21 was two clicks above par for bullet works from the gate at that distance. CJ’s Whatsinaname (1) has been at or close to par in last five starts. Dehn had 3 winners and 5 ITM in last three race days. Nomudderafleet (3) was close to CJ’s Whatsinaname in last and seems to like going long. Win (8), Saver Exactas 1,3/8 and Trifectas 8/1,3/4,5,6,7<br /><br />11th – Contenders Only (C) – Fizzy Pop (8) had a great year in 2008 and drops in class here for bomb maker Bernell Rhone who wants to get Fizzy’s 2009 season finally going. Raced into moderately fast fractions throughout in 2009 grass debut. Had bullet work at 5F last week. Fizzy Pop may pop this afternoon. Win (8), Exacta Box 2,4,8 and Trifectas 2,4,8/2,4,8/3,5,10<br /><br />12th – Contenders Only (B) – Bakers Eye Candy (7) goes for Lynn Scace and she wins 37% with L4-8 + types. Genuine Heart (6) was very close to par in first two tries. Gerry Bennett wins 25% (75% ITM) with 3TSs. Win (7), Exacta Box 6,7 and Trifectas 6,7/3,4,5,9/6,7<br /><br />Good luck and good racing!<br /><br />Johnny B.John J Barilehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02240001070899763886noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5589521192063398221.post-69359083167980514702009-04-26T20:26:00.006-04:002009-04-28T10:32:15.309-04:00Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 04/28/092008-2009<br />Prime Wager Results.14-36 (39%) -$12.60 (14-4-7) (70% ITM)<br />Soft Wager Results....20-67 (30%) -$18.40 (20-15-8) (64% ITM)<br /><br />2007-2008<br />Prime Wager Results 65-211(30.8%) +$20.00 (65-30-27) (57.8% ITM)<br /><br />2008-2009 Seasonal Recap: 293 Structured Winning Wagers<br />(1 out of 3 races after Scratches)<br /><br />100 Winners (Average Payoff $6.00)<br />135 Exactas (Average Payoff $29.50)<br />54 Trifectas (Average Payoff $138.30)<br />4 Daily Doubles (Average Payoff $18.10)<br /><br />On Sunday, the chalk had a tough time of it and my prime wager in the 7th, Silver Eagle, was OOM with no excuse and my soft wager in the 10th, Tytus, failed to respond and settled for 3rd.<br /><br />Among my contenders only selections:<br /><br />I had the winner of the 2nd, Fleet Rita, $3.80, and<br />My 4th race $12 exacta box returned $33.80<br /><br />So it goes...<br /><br />There are only 3 more race days of free selections before The Tampa Bay Downs Handicapper becomes a subscription only site. Avoid the annual subscription price increase (to $99 after May 3rd) and subscribe today for $25.<br /><br />Tuesday’s selections at <a href="http://www.thetbdhandicapper.com/">http://www.thetbdhandicapper.com/</a> :<br /><br />1st - Contenders Only (C) - Clemson (9) had great first call fraction on a -17 variant sloppy track last time out and has two 2nds in last two races. Gets another chance here with #3 leading rider Ronnie Allen Jr. up. HVG jumps from Winblaiseandshow (1) to ride Ocala Girl (6) and that one has been staying a little bit longer with each start and shortens up today. Generation Speed (7) was flying early two back, shortens up and adds blinkers for accomplished veteran trainer Gary Caple. Fortunate Flight (8) has had three 2nds in nine starts and shortens up after flashing speed in 2009 debut. Allen had the mount aboard Fortunate Flight four times last year and opts to ride Clemson today, a good sign for Clemson and a not so good sign for Fortunate Flight. Win (9), Saver Exactas 6,7,8/9 and Trifectas 6,8,9/1,2,7/6,8,9<br /><br />2nd – A soft wager – Reason to Rejoice (7) drops from open company where she was outgunned in last, beaten by Jenna Lu Hu and Waitingfor Tonight, both winners of their last races. That one went in 70, today’s par is 57. Had the best fig in today’s field in last win on February 3rd. Win (7), Saver Exactas 3,5/7 and Trifectas 7/3,5,8/1,2,3,4,5,8<br /><br />3rd – Contenders Only (D) – In last, Sherribaldi (6) was shuffled back for lack of room on the backstretch, swung around a tiring leader on the turn, and then finished strongly for the win. That one went in an above par 54, today’s par is 49. Had dynamite work on 4/11. Looks like Caple wants to steal another at long odds with winless Cedeno in the irons. Win (6), Exacta Box 2,5,6 and Trifectas 2,5,6/1,3,7/2,5,6<br /><br />4th – Contenders Only (C) – Barrington Hills (3) was claimed by McCooey last time out. McCooey had three longshots ITM off-the-claim in L2T. Returns to a sprint today where last was a respectable 3rd place finish. Criollo has Alasan (6) a FTS that belongs to veteran owner and Trainer Bob Van Worp. HVG has the mount. April 5th workout was a couple of clicks above the bullet par for 3F from the gate. Advice to Sinners (12) has disappointed as the beaten favorite in last six races and goes from PP12 today. Enough is enough. Win (3), Saver Exacta 6/3 and Trifectas 3,6/1,3,6,12/1,3,6,12<br /><br />5th – Contenders Only (C) – Native Yell (2) goes for KO’C and she wins 20% with all the angles that are in play here. Vail is 3-7 ITM on the grass. Without the AEs this field is weak with a capital “W”. Siccardi (6) has a pair of Z Patterns going and %E is in the zone. Sunday Delight (10) had a 12.30 final fraction for the last 3.5F in January start at GP and a repeat of that effort would be enough to beat these. Win (2), Exacta Box 2,6,10 and Trifectas 2,6,10/ 5,6,11/2,6,10<br /><br />6th –A soft wager – Sweet Apple Betty (5) goes for Lynn Scace and she wins 60% with the L1-3 + RB + UC angle. Last was a par effort so repeat appears likely. Jolley has Afleet’s Passion (7) and the Layoff Shipper was at or above par in most of her starts. Great work on 4/7. However, Jolley has no Layoff winners at Tampa. Win (5), Saver Exacta 7/5 and Trifectas 5,7/2,9/2,3,5,7,9<br /><br />7th – A soft wager – Runaway Sun (5) was sub-23 on the clubhouse turn and sub-24 on the backstretch in last, completely untouchable fractions that will bring him home first. A very slow pace can hurt, but Runaway Sun will just be that much closer to the up front action. Unpinkable (9) hung late after leading throughout with fast fractions in last. Seems to like being out front. Terminal Burst (6) has satisfactory final fractions and could be up for a piece. Win (5), Saver Exactas 3,9/5 and Trifectas 5,9/1,3,6,7/3,5,6,9<br /><br />8th – Contenders Only (C) – Marblehead (8) comes back fast and drops after trying the grass. Previous was above par effort at today’s distance. Connelly had a fastback winner last season. Will be looking for a win in last start of the season. Seeking Affairs (7) was second best in last at 7F and goes Sprint-to-Route today. %E is in the zone. Mike Straight has the return call for winless Lamoureux. Win (8), Saver Exacta 7/8 and Trifectas 7,8/3,4/3,4,7,8<br /><br />9th – Contenders Only (B) – Shot of Silver (6) won with a par effort in sprint on the grass at Remington in the fall, next three were ITM. Takes a drop today and Butler sticks for Rhone. Recent works have been good. Looks like the value play of the day here. Win (6), Saver Exactas 4,9/6 and Trifectas 6,9/1,2,4,5/4,6,9<br /><br />10th – Contenders Only (B) – Peak of the Storm (10) was second best as the beaten favorite in last. Gets another chance in 2nd try at this level. Bennett wins 21% (43%ITM) with 2L1-3s. Chelly Graeme (3) drops after racing forwardly early in last. Had excellent work six days ago. Win (10), Saver Exacta 3/10 and Trifectas 3,10/5,6,7,8/3,10<br /><br />Good luck and good racing!<br /><br />Johnny B.John J Barilehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02240001070899763886noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5589521192063398221.post-57696242011500502902009-04-26T07:53:00.008-04:002009-04-26T10:09:03.417-04:00Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 04/26/09Prime Wager Results.14-35 (40%) -$10.60 (14-4-7) (71% ITM)<br />Soft Wager Results....20-66 (30%) -$16.40 (20-15-7) (64% ITM)<br /><br />Seasonal Recap: 291 Structured Winning Wagers<br />(1 out of 3 races after Scratches)<br /><br />99 Winners (Average Payoff $6.00)<br />134 Exactas (Average Payoff $29.40)<br />54 Trifectas (Average Payoff $138.30)<br />4 Daily Doubles (Average Payoff $18.10)<br /><br />On Saturday, I had no prime or soft wagers.<br /><br />Among my contenders only selections:<br /><br />I had the winner of the 1st, Dixville, $4.60<br />My 6th race $4 saver exacta returned $28.00,<br />My 9th race $12 trifecta returned $81.60, and<br />There were two scratches am0ng my contenders only selections.<br /><br />So it goes...<br /><br />There are only 4 more race days of free selections before The Tampa Bay Downs Handicapper becomes a subscription only site. Avoid the annual subscription price increase (to $99 after May 3rd) and subscribe today for $25.<br /><br />Sunday’s selections at <a href="http://www.thetbdhandicapper.com/">http://www.thetbdhandicapper.com/</a> :<br /><br />1st – Contenders Only (C) - Klondike Belle (1) had best early fractions before fading after 6F in last. Goes for Mark Passley who has had 3 MC winners this season and adds leading rider Daniel Centeno. Bipette (4) woke up at 66-1 in last and raced professionally in that one. Little Freebie (6) was well placed early at 8.18F in last and returns to a sprint today where she was 2nd two back. Win (1), Exacta Box 1,4,6 and Trifectas 1,6/2,4,5/1,4,6<br /><br />2nd – Contenders Only (C) – Fleet Rita (9) has been racing forwardly all season and today Bennett has the Route-to-Sprint + Dropdown angle going, where he wins 23%. Ally’s Girl (1) was roughed up at the start in 2009 debut and raced on Sloppy track, deserves another chance. Bajan Rihanna (8) has two ITM in the Slop this season and may improve on a fast surface, but Rhone wins only 5% on the stretchout and fig at 7F does not instill confidence here. Win (9), Saver Exactas 1,8/9 and Trifectas 1,9/3,5,6,7,8/1,9<br /><br />3rd – Contenders Only (B) – Imarealguy (6) was 2nd after racing into fast early pace last time out, retains Centeno and had bullet work three days ago. The 6YO is having the best season of his career this year at Tampa. Demagoguery (2) loves the course and always gives his best. Last was well above par for this level, so handling the bump up should not present a problem. Regwell (5) may have lost his form since winning eight weeks ago and there are no Ness angles to work here. Win (6), Saver Exacta 2/6 and Trifectas 2,6/4,5,7/2,5,6<br /><br />4th – Contenders Only (C) – Hell of a Bell (3) comes back in four days for Gogas after going the first four in 48.28 in last and losing badly as the beaten favorite. Was supposed to win, no doubt, going off $1.40-1 after a one year layoff. I’m guessing the horse has been exercising regularly with some stablemates and didn’t figure out that this was the real thing. Was hardly used and is well intended again here. I don’t have much faith in apprentice Faith Schorr (aboard the 1, Multiphone) but I’m sure she has faith in herself. Win (3), Exacta Box 1,3,9 and Trifectas 1,3,9/5,6,10/1,3,9<br /><br />5th – Contenders Only (A) - Itch (4) was well above par in last and adds L1 today. However, Lerman is winless on the grass in 17 tries this season. Caple has Glory of Power (9) and he is only 1-10 on the turf this year. Michele Dehn rides Invisible Genius (8) and she was OOM in three starts on the grass. Clement has Western Influence (7) and the Clement/Centeno team has been very successful this year, but this firster does not appear to be extraordinary. Win (4), Saver Exacta 9/4 and Trifectas All/9/4<br /><br />6th – Contenders Only (C) – Eileen’s Joy (4) comes rightback for Bruce Alexander after posting a respectable 43 in maiden win (today’s par is 47). Alexander wins 25% with rightbacks. Centeno has the return call. Dance Mistress (5) gave way after five panels in last and shortens up today. Wilson goes to Butler, a positive jockey switch. Win (4), Saver Exacta 5/4 and Trifectas 4,5/2,6,7,8,9/4,5<br /><br />7th - A prime wager – Silver Eagle (9) faced the best on the grounds in last three and held his own with all sub-12 final fractions and above par figs. Moves through N1X condition today. Win (9), Saver Exactas 1,5,8/9 and Superfecta 9/1,5,8/1,5,8/3,7,10<br /><br />8th – Contenders Only (B) – Chobe (7) shortens up for Ness and sheds 9 lbs.in switch to Mike Straight. Ness wins 38% (73%ITM) with shorten ups. However, Chobe will be without the “go juice” or whatever that was found in Ness’ barn earlier this week (see link <a href="http://www.drf.com/news/article/103169.html">http://www.drf.com/news/article/103169.html</a> ). Speculator (4) won in a driving rain, then just missed on a Good surface, then won on a fast track. This horse loves to run and that is what it’s all about. Win (7), Saver Exacta 4/7 and Trifectas 4,7/All/4,7<br /><br />9th – Contenders Only (B) – Drinkwater (6) set fast early pace and hung late in last. If he can repeat that effort here, it looks like they’ll all be chasing throughout. Win (6), Saver Exactas 1a,5/6 and Trifectas 6/3,4,7/1a,5<br /><br />10th – A soft wager - Tytus (10) was checked up for racing room on the turn, lost about 1 ½ lengths in the process and finished strongly, gaining on the winner in the shadow of the wire two back at 6F. Had the best fig in the field in that one. Then went 8.18F and led in the stretch before hanging. Shortens up to 7F today and Centeno has the return call for Ness. Storm Thief’s (2) 100 day absence does not add up and Allen wins only 16% with L4-8’s. Poor work eight days ago. Bailey’s Dynasty (7) was closest to par two back and stretches out today. Allen has the return call for Donald Pittman. Win (1), Exacta 1/7 and Trifectas 1/2.7,9,10/2,7,9,10<br /><br />Good luck and good racing!<br /><br />Johnny B.John J Barilehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02240001070899763886noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5589521192063398221.post-16397189554457460592009-04-22T14:57:00.013-04:002009-04-24T12:16:41.652-04:00Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 04/25/09Prime Wager Results.14-35 (40%) -$10.60 (14-4-7) (71% ITM)<br />Soft Wager Results....20-66 (30%) -$16.40 (20-15-7) (64% ITM)<br /><br />Seasonal Recap: 288 Structured Winning Wagers<br />(1 out of 3 races after Scratches)<br />98 Winners (Average Payoff $6.00)<br />133 Exactas (Average Payoff $29.40)<br />53 Trifectas (Average Payoff $139.40)<br />4 Daily Doubles (Average Payoff $18.10)<br /><br />On Wednesday, I had no prime or soft wagers.<br /><br />Among my contenders only selections:<br />I had the winner of the 1st, Esprit de Mar, $14.60,<br />I had the winner of the 3rd, Train to Glory, $15.60,<br />I had the winner of the 6th, Arhat, $4.20,<br />My 8th race contenders only selection scratched.<br /><br />So it goes...<br /><br />There are only 5 more race days of free selections before The Tampa Bay Downs Handicapper becomes a subscription only site. Avoid the annual subscription price increase (to $99 after May 3rd) and subscribe today for $25.<br /><br />Saturday’s selections at <a href="http://www.thetbdhandicapper.com/">www.thetbdhandicapper.com</a> :<br /><br />1st – Contenders Only (C) – Dixville (3) was 2nd best in first two tries at rock bottom and appears ready to graduate. Burning Belle (2) has three thirds in last three at the route. Cruising Broadway (7) improves under Centeno. Win (3), Saver Exactas 2,7/3 and Trifectas 2,3,7/5,7,8,10/2,3,7<br /><br />2nd – Contenders Only (B) – Bluegrass Girl (2) returns to the dirt and drops in class after going evenly in last two on the grass. Had a par fig at today’s distance in January. Represents the value play here. Win (2), Saver Exactas 1,3/2 and Trifectas 1,2,3/2,3,4,8/1,3<br /><br />3rd – Contenders Only (A) – Shadow Belle (4) posted a 77 in 2009 debut (today’s par is 68) with awesome turn time. Ziadie wins 35% rightback and 27% going up in class. Shortens up today. Dehn has the return call and Belle carries her at 109 lbs. today. I’ve touted Juicy Loots’ (2) virtues all season and she’s disappointed five times. This is her last chance this season. Just for Kicks (7) goes for Ness and he won 4 of 5 with the Layoff + Route-to-Sprint + Dropdown angle in L2T. Win (4), Exacta Box 2,7,4 and Trifectas 4,7/2,3,5/2,4,7<br /><br />4th – Contenders Only (C) – In last, Perf (3) was checked for racing room on the backstretch, was bumped hard in the stretch and then was forced to the outside by that one before getting going late, but could not get up in time. Bennett moves the 3YO up in class and Allen sticks. Bullet work four days ago. Boo Bear (2) goes for Philip Oliver and he had three Layoff winners with MSWs in L2T. Adds L1 and Carlos Cruz. Win (3), Saver Exactas 2,7,12/3 and Trifectas 3,7,12/2,4,5/3,7,12<br /><br />5th – Contenders Only (D) – Warm Memories (10) was close in three of last six at the route and comes back to Tampa where he was ITM last time out. Centeno has the call. Alonzo is 50% win and place this season at Tampa and must be respected. Win (10), Saver Exactas 1,7/10 and Trifectas 7,10/1,9/1,7,9,10<br /><br />6th – Contenders Only (B) – Jackies Causeway (2) has four seconds in last five races and was above par in all of them. O’Connell goes to Allen in absence of RoHo. Win (2), Saver Exactas 1,9/2 and Trifectas 2/All/1,9<br /><br />7th – Contenders Only (A) – Sweet Yulianna (1) was a solid 2nd in Sophomore Stakes three weeks ago and drops for Ziadie who wins 29% (71%ITM) on the dropdown. Switches to hot apprentice Mike Straight. Win (1), Saver Exactas 3,4/1 and Trifectas 1/5,7/3,4,5,7<br /><br />8th – Contenders Only (C) – High on Candy (9) improves with each start and had the best final fraction in last. Velez sticks for Cibelli. Rare Ransom (5) had sub-12 final fraction two back, then was well placed and gave way in last. Tax and Spend (7) failed to gain after being taken up in last and that one went in fast fractions throughout. Win (9), Saver Exactas 5,7/9 and Trifectas 9/1,2,3,4/5,7<br /><br />9th – Contenders Only (B) – Finally Remembered (4) comes back to the dirt where she had impressive debut. Figures to improve here for Cataldi, and Martinez has the return call. Eventful Halo (9) had three seconds in last three and is the main threat here. Win (4), Saver Exacta 9/4 and Trifectas 4,9/1,2,7/4,9<br /><br />10th – Contenders Only (C) – Lady Rizzi (5) is a classy mare that likes to run with the boys. Finds a softer spot today after being soundly beaten in Turf Dash last month. Should put these away. Rockhurst (6) goes for Mike Dini and he had four Layoff + Shipper winners in L3T. Win (5), Saver Exactas 1,7/5 and Trifectas 5,6/1,7/1,5,6,7<br /><br />11th – Contenders Only (B) – Lakeside Run (9) made a solid late run in last on the grass and goes for Delacour who has had an awesome season and has been successful with the Turf-to-Dirt + Dropdown this year. Cotto sticks. Win (9), Saver Exactas 1,6,7/9 and Trifectas 9/1,7/1,6,7<br /><br />Good luck and good racing!<br /><br />Johnny B.John J Barilehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02240001070899763886noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5589521192063398221.post-34174207178903748042009-04-22T07:20:00.003-04:002009-04-22T07:29:16.254-04:00Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 04/22/09Prime Wager Results.14-35 (40%) -$10.60 (14-4-7) (71% ITM)<br />Soft Wager Results....20-66 (30%) -$16.40 (20-15-7) (64% ITM)<br /><br />Seasonal Recap: 285 Winning Wagers<br />95 Winners (Average Payoff $5.80)<br />133 Exactas (Average Payoff $29.40)<br />53 Trifectas (Average Payoff $139.40)<br />4 Daily Doubles (Average Payoff $18.10)<br /><br />On Tuesday, I had no prime or soft wagers.<br /><br />My contenders only selections were skunked as longshots carried the day, win, place and show.<br /><br />So it goes...<br /><br />Wednesday’s selections at <a href="http://www.thetbdhandicapper.com/">http://www.thetbdhandicapper.com/</a> :<br /><br />1st – Contenders Only (D) – Esprit de Mar (4) drops a notch today after 2009 debut on off track one week ago where he chased before fading. Was ITM two back with a fig that would put these away. Switches to HVG. Alie’s Fabian showed all his cards in last and will be trying again today. Western Flight (7) was ITM two back before racing on the off track in last. Win (4), Exacta Box 4,5,7 and Trifecta Box 4,5,7,9<br /><br />2nd – Contenders Only (C) – Wynn’s Wild Flower (3) had three solid efforts and shortens up today. Sweetsformyhoney (11) was up for 2nd as the beaten favorite in last. Dotpower is one dimensional and will be pressured throughout. Win (3), Saver Exacta 11/3 and Trifectas All/3/11<br /><br />3rd – Contenders Only (C) – Train to Glory (6) is poised to make this year’s campaign as good or better than last years. Comes back fast after being ridden out in last. Polynesian Sunset (4) has %E that says “yes” to the stretchout and Ness wins 44% with the angle. Levy Light (8) is on top of her game with three 2009 wins at Tampa. Win (6), Saver Exactas 4,8/6 and Trifectas 6,8/1,3,4/4,6,8<br /><br />4th – Contenders Only (B) – A Question of Time (4) returns to the dirt where last two were solid efforts. Bennett wins 26% with L1-3’s. Reprisal (3) is also racing well in sprints this season. No Fancy Title (6) worked well last week and may be ready for big return for Bennett who wins 25% (50% ITM) with L9up types. Win (4), Exacta Box 3,4,6 and Trifectas 4/3,5,6,8/3,6<br /><br />5th – Contenders Only (A) – Bohemian Dream (10) had fast late fractions despite weakening in deep stretch in last. Get A Lawyer (8) goes with him again but has Centeno this time. 7YO Arhat’s (5) debut surprised many and he lacked room at the end of the turn and was going well at the finish. RoHo has only one mount today and it’s the return call on Arhat. Looks like a positive sign. Win (5), Saver Exactas 8,10/5 and Trifectas 10/5/All<br /><br />6th – Contenders Only (B) – Baroccorocco (8) had good early fractions and was very close to par in first two tries at the downs and shortens up today. CV Slew (1) goes for 26% newcomer Earl Begley. Another with good early speed and drops to the bottom today. Inside post likely to hamper Slew. Europa Dancer (6) has very generous ML after being ITM with solid figs in four of last six. Win (8), Saver Exactas 1,6/8 and Trifectas 8/All/1,6<br /><br />7th – Contenders Only (B) – Mr. Guska (3) comes back to Chad Stewart and he won with Mr. G at 5F on the grass going Dirt to Turf last season. Fast early fractions in last win make it look right. Not Acclaim (9) drops for Ziadie and he wins 29% (71%ITM) with dropdowns. Switch to Straight lightens the load. Win (3), Saver Exacta 9/3 and Trifectas 3,9/2,4,6/3,9<br /><br />8th – Contenders Only (B) – Seniors Pride (7) was closest to par in last two and shortens up for Ziadie who wins 30% (45%ITM) with the angle. Jewel Heist (6) had respectable debut and Scace wins 25% (42%ITM) with 2TSs. Glory Charge (8) comes back to a sprint after waking up going long. Ryan has Footcandles (10) and he wins 21% in first three off the layoff. Footcandles drops after showing something in first three. Win (7), Saver Exactas 6,8,10/7 and Trifectas 7/1,4,8/6,8,10<br /><br />9th – Contenders Only (B) – Rumor Has It (6) plummets in class while going for Hinsley. Hinsley and Centeno hooked up with a layoff winner on the grass in 2007.Pitchnicholas (2) had 11.89 final fraction in last and is always very tough at this level. Heza Wild Guy (8) has a high win % on the grass and is classy but Rhone wins only 10% with layoffs. Win (6), Saver Exacta 2/6 and Trifectas 2,6/1,8,9/2,6,8<br /><br />10th – Contenders Only (C) – Magic Kipper (6), winner of last and a 50% ITM lifetime runner comes back after a six week rest for Debbie Artz. Appears to be well intended. Unlimited Funds (5) goes for McCarthy but she wins only 4% with fastbacks. Uno Way Calle (11) has been playing musical chairs all season and is back to McCarthy presently but McCarthy wins only 4% on the stretchout. Win (6), Saver Exactas 3,4,7/6 and Trifectas 4,6,7/5,11/3,4,6,7<br /><br />Good luck and good racing!<br /><br />Johnny B.John J Barilehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02240001070899763886noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5589521192063398221.post-40849658110764367742009-04-19T17:19:00.006-04:002009-04-20T19:10:58.935-04:00Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 04/21/09Prime Wager Results.14-35 (40%) -$10.60 (14-4-7) (71% ITM)<br />Soft Wager Results....20-66 (30%) -$16.40 (20-15-7) (64% ITM)<br /><br />Seasonal Recap: 285 Winning Wagers<br />95 Winners (Average Payoff $5.80)<br />133 Exactas (Average Payoff $29.40)<br />53 Trifectas (Average Payoff $139.40)<br />4 Daily Doubles (Average Payoff $18.10)<br /><br />On Sunday, my prime wager in the 3rd, Advice to Sinners, settled for third.<br /><br />Among my contenders only selections:<br />I had the winner of the 4th, Straight Lady Luck, $3.40,<br />I had the winner of the 6th, Mi Helena, $5.00, and<br />I had the winner of the 9th, Rush to Dinner, $8.60<br /><br />So it goes...<br /><br />There are only 7 more race days of free selections before The Tampa Bay Downs Handicapper becomes a subscription only site. Avoid the annual subscription price increase (to $99 after May 3rd) and subscribe today for $25.<br /><br />Tuesday’s selections at <a href="http://www.thetbdhandicapper.com/">http://www.thetbdhandicapper.com/</a>:<br /><br />1st - Contenders Only (B) – Proud Escapade (6) drops to this level for the first time since breaking maiden at Suffolk last June and has been ITM seven times since then. Fits perfectly here and had the best fig in the field in last. Mikes Classic (4) was the beaten favorite in last two and shortens up for Ziadie who wins 30% (45% ITM) with shorten up types. Coin in the Sand’s (3) one year absence and the big drop indicate physical problems. Robert G. Smith had no long layoff winners in L3T. Win (6), Saver Exacta 4/6 and Trifectas 6/1,2,7/4<br /><br />2nd – Contenders Only (A) – Lightly raced Tactoro (4) goes for Dale Bennett who won 50% with 2L4-8’s, 33% (61%ITM) with dropdowns and 40% (52%ITM) with shorten ups in L2T. The entry and the 5 have figs that are good enough to win this one. Ziadie has monster stats for this situation but Siphon City (8) has not won a race since July of 2006. Two year layoff Belichick (3) is a crapshoot and gets a play in the tri only. Win (4), Saver Exactas 1,5/4 and Trifectas 3,4/1,5/1.3.4.5.7.8<br /><br />3rd – Contenders Only (B) – Crazy Truth (9) was very close to par in last, shortens up and sheds 7 lbs. in switch to hot apprentice Mike Straight. Finished no worse than 4th in last five starts. Win (9), Saver Exactas 5,12/9 and Trifectas 9/2,6,8/5,12<br /><br />4th – Contenders Only (C) - Pompano Beach Rose (9) goes for Ness and he was 100% ITM with RB + Stretchout + UC angle in L2T. Was ITM in last seven and is certainly the one to beat. Anne’s Dancer (3) goes long where she was above par in last at the route on a fast surface. Magical Isis (8) is lightly raced and is a typical speedball that keeps going now and then. Win (9), Saver Exactas 3,8/9 and Trifectas 3,9/2,4,6,7,8/3,9<br /><br />5th - Contenders Only (D) – Storm Harbor (3) had the only sub-12 final fraction in the field in last on grass and Butler is up again. Was above par in NY in 3YO season and was sent south to start paying off. Win (3), Saver Exactas 4,10,13,14/3 and Trifectas 3/All/4,10<br /><br />6th – Contenders Only (B) – The 5YO Rainbow Glider (3) shortens up today, has solid figs this season and two 2nds in last three tries. Cabre (2) switches to Allen, has been gently used this season and tries the route again after showing something in last two sprints. Brotherinlaw (4) was closest to par in maiden win. Win (3), Saver Exactas 2,4/3 and Trifectas 2,3/4,5,7,8,12/2,3<br /><br />7th – Contenders Only (B) – Deerborough (4) raced forwardly for 6 panels and into a 12.10/f pace in the Turf Classic. Had a sub-12 final fraction in previous. Opportune Moment (6) was above par in last two and with a sub-12 final in last. Trippin Up (7) switches to Centeno and shortens up after three solid performances for Bruce Alexander. Win (4), Exacta Box 4,6,7 and Trifectas 4,6,7/1,5,9/4,6,7<br /><br />8th – Contenders Only (A) – Valley Loot (5) is one of Allen’s star performers and she won after a five month layoff last season. Loot has the best record and highest lifetime earnings. Works indicate readiness. Win (5), Saver Exactas 1,3/5 and Trifectas 1,3,5/2,5,6/1,3,5<br /><br />9th – Contenders Only (A) – We Will Rock You (3) goes for leading turf trainer (33% on the grass) Clement and his go to rider Daniel Centeno. Clement has had numerous layoff winners in L3T and the Rock was well above par in last three on the grass. Win (3), Saver Exactas Plain1,7/3 and Trifectas 3/1,7/All<br /><br />10th – Contenders Only (D) – Larissa’s Dream (9) raced forwardly in last two and Griffith switches to Mike Straight. Had the best fig in the field two back. Wynn’s Story (1) has been working well for debut and benefits from inside post in short run to the turn. Openly Sneaky (7) gets L1 and another chance in first off Begley claim. Win (9), Saver Exactas 1,7/9 and Trifectas 1,7,9/1,7,9/2,3,5,6<br /><br />Good luck and good racing!<br /><br />Johnny B.John J Barilehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02240001070899763886noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5589521192063398221.post-57719952020688303422009-04-18T16:08:00.013-04:002009-04-18T18:24:52.533-04:00Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 04/19/09Prime Wager Results.14-34 (41%) -$8.60....(14-4-6) (71% ITM)<br />Soft Wager Results....20-66 (30%) -$16.40 (20-15-7) (64% ITM)<br /><br />Seasonal Recap: 282 Winning Wagers<br />92 Winners (Average Payoff $5.80)<br />133 Exactas (Average Payoff $29.40)<br />53 Trifectas (Average Payoff $139.40)<br />4 Daily Doubles (Average Payoff $18.10)<br /><br />On Saturday:<br />My soft wager in the 6th, Mac Speed, was 2nd in a photo,<br />My soft wager in the 7th, Grimaldi, was not ready after the layoff and was out of the money, and<br />My prime wager in the 8th, Luckman, had to settle for 2nd.<br /><br />Among my contenders only selections:<br />My 2nd race $6 saver exacta returned $42.60,<br />I had the winner of the 4th, Gato Paso, $7.00,<br />My 11th race $24 trifecta box returned $92.20, and<br />My 12th race contenders only selection scratched.<br /><br />So it goes...<br /><br />There are only 8 more race days of free selections before The Tampa Bay Downs Handicapper becomes a subscription only site. Avoid the annual subscription price increase (to $99 after May 3rd) and subscribe today for $25.<br /><br /><p>Sunday’s selections at <a href="http://www.thetbdhandicapper.com/">http://www.thetbdhandicapper.com/</a> :<br /><br />1st – Contenders Only (C) – A Slick Chic (2) drops to the bottom for Ness but Allen jumps to stay with Queen Maddie (7). Ness wins 39% (63%ITM) with dropdowns. Straight cooled off Tuesday and Wednesday, but he didn’t have any live ones either. Ashley and I (5) is 62% ITM lifetime and was above par in six of last ten. Clearly needed last one after long layoff and my fig has her much closer to par than the bible. Queen Maddie (7) was at or above par in two of last three. Win (5), Saver Exactas 2,7/5 and DD’s 2,5,7/5<br /><br />2nd – A prime wager – Advice to Sinners (5) was 8 1/2 back at the 2nd Call, was flying through the stretch and needed only a couple of more strides to put the winner away in last. Was up close in last two at the route and is 5-5 ITM at Tampa this season. Ness wins 44% (52% ITM) with Route-to-Sprints. Shady Spot’s (6) %E is close to the lower parameter for the distance and Barrington Hills (2) is close to the upper parameter but both are in the zone and must be considered contenders. Win (5), Saver Exactas 2,6/5 and Trifectas 5/All/2,6 and DD’s 5/4,8,9<br /><br />3rd – Contenders Only (C) – Suave Angel (4) may be 1-25 but she’s 7-9 ITM at Tampa. Last two were close to par. Cruz has been winning at a 25% streak for the past ten days. Suave Angel had a solid work four days ago. Pyrite Beautiful (9) flashed speed in last at 7F before weakening after a half mile. Shortens up today and sheds 7 lbs. in switch to Dehn. Looks like Berry’s been racing her into condition and it’s now or never with only two weeks left to the season. Win (9), Exacta Box 4,8,9 and Trifectas 4,8,9/1,3,6,10/4,8,9<br /><br />4th – Contenders Only – (A) – Straight Lady Luck (7) has been racing into fast early paces and has been hard to get going but today she races with a weak field and is bound to be closer early. Centeno has the return call. Pure Miracle (3) had a couple of strengtheners at the route before racing in the slop at 7F in last. If bomb maker Behrens is going to try, it’s today. Win (7), Saver Exacta 3/7 and Trifectas 7/All/3<br /><br />5th – Contenders Only – (B) – See I A (6) had best fig in the field two back at 7F, goes 6.5F today and faces three rock bottom maiden winners here. Should shake’em all off for his 2nd win. Carte Blanche (2) goes for Cibelli and she is 86% ITM with Non-shipping L1-3 + Dropdown angle in L2T. Cibelli/Lopez team is 54% ITM this season. Prince David (9) goes for Kaelin and he was 50% ITM with Route-to-Sprints in L2T. O’Connell has Atsatsuki (5) but she wins only 13% with L1-3 + types. Win (6), Saver Exacta 2/6 and Trifectas 2,6/1,3,4,7,8,9/2,6<br /><br />6th – Contenders Only (C) – Mi Helena (5) has been close at 8.5F, had the best final fraction in the field two back and all her fractional times indicate superiority over these. Bobbin’forgold (3) goes for Leigh Delacour who has racked up 10 Layoff winners in L2T and wins 26% rightback. Iguana Joe (8) goes for 50% ITM trainer Tom Proctor and Proctor switches to leading rider Daniel Centeno today. Win (5), Saver Exactas 3,8/5 and Trifectas 3,5,8/3,4,6/3,5,8<br /><br />7th – Contenders Only (C) – A Curious Lady (8) made a quick move on the turn to put away the leader, gained a two length advantage and gave nothing back in the stretch in last, her third victory since September. Cibelli is 54% ITM with rightbacks and A Curious Lady shortens up today. Shoe Babe (11) has been working extremely well and had above par figs at the Big A over the winter. Babe is the main threat here and gets another chance after off-track debut at the Downs. Win (8), Saver Exacta 11/8 and Trifectas 8,11/6,10/6,8,10,11<br /><br />8th – Contenders Only (C) – Photo Image (7) is in good form now and is always trying. Ness and HVG have both been hot. Private Ruthie (4) is eliminated from contention as JJ Delgado tries the grass. Win (7), Saver Exactas 5,12/7 or 2,5/7 (if 12 is out) and Trifectas 5,7,12/2,3,6,10/5,7,12 or 2,5,7/3,6,10/2,5,7 (if 12 is out).<br /><br />9th – Contenders Only (B) – Rush to Dinner (1) was close to par in last at 6.5F and shortens up to 5F where he had the best fig in the field at the distance. Mike Straight is up again. Apollyoncomesfirst (6) goes for Frances Gogas, who had four Layoff winners in L3T. Takes a drop after trying the poly. Had bullet work at the Oakridge Equine Center a couple of weeks ago. Win (1), Saver Exacta 6/1 and Trifectas All/1,6/1,6<br /><br />10th – Contenders Only (C) – Xep for Elmer was closest to par in last and was above par two back and that’s more than the rest of these can say. Lite Brigade (2) and Boots Are Walking (9) duked it out in last and are the main competition in an event that is filled mostly with favors to the Racing Secretary. Win (3), Saver Exactas 2,9/3 and Trifectas 3/2,9/All<br /><br />11th – Contenders Only (D) – Too Much Zip (4) comes rightback and goes long for Ness who wins 38% rightback and 44% with Sprint-to Route types. Zip is usually above par and fits here. Centeno is up. Nomudderafleet (2) is ITM in 10 of 21 and last was close to par. Pompano Beach Rose (7) goes for Ness and he was 100% ITM with RB + Stretchout + UC angle in L2T. Give Me a Smooch (8) was outgunned in last and takes a sensible drop for Arterburn. Smooch is almost always above par and gets another chance here. Win (4), Saver Exactas 2,7,8/4 and Trifectas 4/3,5,9/2,7,8<br /><br />Good luck and good racing!</p><p>Johnny B.<br /></p>John J Barilehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02240001070899763886noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5589521192063398221.post-12333313341978828282009-04-15T16:05:00.018-04:002009-04-17T17:51:34.846-04:00Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 04/18/09Prime Wager Results.14-33 (42%) -$6.60(14-3-6) (67% ITM)<br />Soft Wager Results....20-64 (31%) -$12.40 (20-14-7) (64% ITM)<br /><br />Seasonal Recap: 279 Winning Wagers<br /><br />91 Winners (Average Payoff $5.90)<br />132 Exactas (Average Payoff $29.30)<br />52 Trifectas (Average Payoff $140.30)<br />4 Daily Doubles (Average Payoff $18.10)<br /><br />On Tuesday, my soft wager in the 10th, Supply Guy, was out of the money.<br /><br />Among my contenders only selections:<br /><br />I had the winner of the 1st, Lil Skeletol, $5.40,<br />My 4th race $12 exacta box returned $19.60,<br />I had the winner of the 5th, Courting Cat, $6.20,<br />My 5th race $16 trifecta returned $109.20,<br />I had the winner of the 6th, Polarity, $4.00,<br />My 8th race $4 saver exacta returned $17.80,<br />I had the winner of the 9th, Ixtabentun, $3.60, and<br />One of my contenders only wagers scratched today.<br /><br />So it goes...<br /><br />There are only 9 more race days of free selections before The Tampa Bay Downs Handicapper becomes a subscription only site. Avoid the annual subscription price increase (to $99 after May 3rd) and subscribe today for $25.<br /><br />Saturday’s selections at <a href="http://www.thetbdhandicapper.com/">http://www.thetbdhandicapper.com/</a> :<br /><br />1st – Contenders Only (B) – Winblaiseandshow (6) has %E that is in the zone for the stretchout and was ITM in 9 of 17. HVG has been hot recently and HVG has the return call for Eddie Clark, sticking with Winblaiseandshow over Wynns Message (8) who just hung in last at today’s distance. Dawns Fearless Son (7) had the best fig in the field in last and shortens up after weakening in the final furlong in that one. Dawn has shown good early speed at the route in last three and has had only six starts. Sneaky Guy (3), the 5-2 ML favorite, was the beaten favorite in two of last three, had disappointing figs in last two, and O’Connell goes to low % apprentice Michele Dehn. O’Connell wins 0% with fastbacks and only 14% with the Sprint-to-Route angle. Time to lay against. Win (6), Exacta Box 6,7,8 and Trifectas 3,6/3,6,7,8/3,6,7,8<br /><br />2nd – Contenders Only (C) – Sarkozy (9) was above par in last in a game effort and shortens up for Ray Tamargo Jr. Allen sticks. St. Patrick’s Jet (8) has %E that is in the target zone and has been improving. Call On Joshua (11) was close at today’s distance eight weeks ago and Fontana has his successful Distance Change + Jockey Change angle going here. Bullseye Boy (10) was above par in last on WF surface but has had 23 tries. Win (9), Exacta Box 8,9,11 or Saver Exactas 6,8,10/9 (if 11 doesn’t go) and Trifectas 9/1,2,7/6,8,10,11<br /><br />3rd – Contenders Only – (C) – First we’ll deal with the favorites. Voodoomon (2) goes for McMullen and he had no L9 & up winners in L2T. Had a great work on 3/14 and has Centeno up, but no horse should be 9-5 after a 16 month layoff. Sir Swervalot (6). We know he had a physical problem when Ness opted for the class drop three back but the horse has heart and he keeps trying. If the problem was fixed Ness would move him back up, but he doesn’t. Could win but I think Ness is hoping to lose him. Bello Pappa (10) is a dueler who seems to have gotten discouraged after failing to have it his own way up front recently. Today, Very Arrogant (3) goes with him to add insult to injury. Now Florida Boy (4) on the other hand, had a decent (albeit sub-par) fig in last and has been ITM in two of last three and Camilo is always dangerous for a price. Win (4), Exacta Box 2,4,6 and Trifectas 2,6/1,3,5,8/2,4,6<br /><br />4th – Contenders Only – (B) – Gato Paso (2) surprised in debut at the route on the grass and had the best fig in the field among the grass runners here and she was three clicks above par for bullet works at 4F a week ago. Cynthia’s Secret (3) goes for KO’C and she won 50% (67%ITM) with FTT angle in L2T, however, Secret’s %E is well outside the upper parameter for 8.5F on the grass. She figures to argue the early pace with Canadian Jade (6) but CJ is very competitive and will get a piece. Moonshine Mania (1) was rallying late in last and will benefit from the extra 110 yards. Awesome Charlie (7) won in a race with a slow pace and a slow finish and there was nothing awesome about it. Win (2), Saver Exactas 1,3,6/2 and Trifectas 1,2,6/3,4,5,7/1,2,6<br /><br />5th – Contenders Only – (B) – I’m Wealthy (2) was close to par in last and was the only horse of the five here that went in that one to hang on for a piece in a race with a blistering fast early pace. Faces those five again and should find the pace more comfortable today. Little Richie (3) faced several winners of two in open company last time out and those have been racing well since. Richie was at or above par in six of last ten. Andrew Hall (5) goes for the master bomb maker Fontana and was trounced in last after racing at or above par in six of eight lifetime. Looks like a setup. Win (2), Exacta Box 2,3,5 and Trifectas 2,3,5/7,9,10,11/2,3,5<br /><br />6th – A soft wager – Mac Speed (5) has the best final fractions in the field and was rallying late after being 17 back early in last. KO’C drops her a notch and adds Centeno today. Bon Bon (4) has very reliable final fractions and the GP shipper faces softer today for Garcia who had four winning shippers in L3T. Rice has Topo Gigio (9) but she had no FTS winners on the turf in L3T.Win (5), Saver Exacta 4/5 and Trifectas 4,5/3,10/3,4,5,9,10<br /><br />7th – A soft wager– Grimaldi (7) goes for Wilson who brings the 3YO back to earth after going long on the grass after impressive maiden win at the Jersey shore last summer. Wilson had an L4-8 winner last year and curiously enough, he had an off-the-claim winner that dropped in class and shortened up last year too. Grimaldi had a monster work at four panels two weeks ago and looks ready. Win (7), Saver Exactas 10,11/7 and Trifectas 7,10,11/3,4,6,9/7,10,11<br /><br />8th – A prime wager – Luckman (2) was above par in last three and my figs give him an 89-108-77 in those. Today’s par is 76. He stayed with the fast early pace in last but the tank was empty late. By comparison, Luckman and his cousin Flymambo (6) went the same day (on March 28th) and Flymambo just missed with a 65. This is why I make my own figs and I’ve got to stick with them. On April 3rd, I said Lord Louis’ (10) final fractions have been getting softer and softer since the fall and that I was not expecting much from him. Walder scratched him that day and again on the 11th. I’m sticking by my assessment. Win (2), Exacta Box 2,6,8 and Trifectas 2/6,8,10/6,8,10<br /><br />9th - Contenders Only (D) – Magna Heart (6) was above par in last and was above par in six of last ten. If there is class among trainers, Derek Ryan has it here. Dini and Jeffries both have firsters going but neither has won with a FTS in L4T. Win (6), Saver Exactas 4,10/6 and Trifectas 6/All/4,10<br /><br />10th – Contenders Only (C) – Loose Goose (1) had the only sub-12 final fraction in last and that was into a moderately fast pace. Bramante surprises often. Haitian (3) has obvious virtues. Been Awhile (5) won last and is 4-7 ITM now. Is He Proud (7) was close up in all four on the grass and Passero often wins with Dirt-to-Turf angle. Vail is a good turf rider. Win (1), Saver Exactas 3,5,7/1, Trifectas 1,3/4,7,8,9,11/1,3,5<br /><br />11th – Contenders Only (B) – Regent Star (8) was closest to par in last and races at this level for only the 2nd time while shortening up today. The Star is now 9-21 ITM lifetime. Win (8), Saver Exactas 3,4,10/8 and Trifecta Box 3,4,8,10<br /><br />12th – Contenders Only (C) – Multicard (6) is 5-5 ITM and was gaining slowly in last. Stretches out today. Ottasea (5) and Stepaside Girls (7) are sub-par but fairly reliable. Miami Mood (8) has %E that says no to the stretchout and Switzer has no Sprint-to-Route wins at Tampa. La Corredora (1) takes a negative drop and so does Strike Jak (10) but the latter makes some sense. Sweetsouthernstar (12) comes back fast for Wasiluk and he has at least 12 fastback winners in L3T. Win (6), Saver Exactas 5,7,10,12/6 and Trifectas 1,10/6/5,7,8,12<br /><br />Good luck and good racing!<br /><br />Johnny B.John J Barilehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02240001070899763886noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5589521192063398221.post-47702559555744743792009-04-14T15:52:00.014-04:002009-04-14T17:24:52.124-04:00Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 04/15/09Prime Wager Results.14-33 (42%) -$6.60(14-3-6) (67% ITM)<br />Soft Wager Results....20-63 (32%) -$10.40 (20-14-7) (65% ITM)<br /><br />Seasonal Recap: 272 Winning Wagers<br />87 Winners (Average Payoff $5.90)<br />130 Exactas (Average Payoff $29.50)<br />51 Trifectas (Average Payoff $141.00)<br />4 Daily Doubles (Average Payoff $18.10)<br /><br />On Tuesday, I had no prime or soft wagers.<br /><br />Among my contenders only selections:<br /><br />I had the winner of the 1st, Alexandra's Halo, $6.40,<br />My 1st race $12 exacta box returned $40.00,<br />My 2nd race $12 exacta box returned $40.20,<br />My 3rd race $36 trifecta returned $15.40 (with the DH for 3rd),<br />I had the winner of the 7th, Transit of Venus, $3.80,<br />My 8th race $12 exacta box returned $17.40, and<br />I had the winner of the 10th, Far Out Fiancee, $7.00<br />Three of my selections were scratched from Tuesday's card.<br /><br />So it goes...<br /><br />There are only 10 more race days of free selections before The Tampa Bay Downs Handicapper becomes a subscription only site. Avoid the annual subscription price increase (to $99 after May 3rd) and subscribe today for $25.<br /><br />Wednesday's selections at <a href="http://www.thetbdhandicapper.com/">http://www.thetbdhandicapper.com/</a> :<br /><br />1st – Contenders Only (D) - Lil Skeletol (1) goes for Gary Caple and he had three stretchout winners in L2T. %E is in the target zone. Drops to rock bottom here. Chester the Jester goes for Tony Wilson and he had four Layoff winners in L2T. Wynn’s Message (12) was above par in last after waking up for a price. Win (1), Exacta Box 1,10,12 and Trifectas 1,10,12/2,3,7/1,10,12<br /><br />2nd – Contenders Only (D) – Pi Pops Angel (2) got out then steadied on the backstretch in debut. Pi Pop goes for Enrique Alonso and he had a winner with a GP shipper this season. Depends On Annie (3) goes for KO’C and she wins 17% in first off-the-claim. O’Connell/Homeister team is 50% ITM this season. Sneaky Irish Lass (5) had the best fig in last and Cibelli wins 18% (45%ITM) with 2L1-3s. Win (5), Exacta Box 2,3,5 and Trifectas 2,3,5/6,7,11/2,3,5<br /><br />3rd – Contenders Only (C) – Vicar in the House (3) was above par in last after dropping to the $5000 level and is 7-12 ITM in 2008-2009. L.I. Ice Tea had the best fig in the field on 2/5 but hasn’t showed much since. However, he is 50% ITM lifetime at Tampa. Psychic Star (5) and Nana’s Hope (8) have been sub-par but reliable all season. Win (3), Saver Exactas 2,5,8/3 and Trifectas 3,5,8/2,4,7/3,5,8<br /><br />4th – Contenders Only (B) – Hi Chris (8) was above par in 3 of 4 starts and Griffith won 60% with Layoff + Shipper + Shorten Up types in L2T. Jewel Heist (1) had the best fig among recent starters in last and Scace wins 25% (42% ITM) with 2TSs. Salty (6) comes back in 14 days for Larry Bates and he had 5 Fastback winners in L4T. Montalvo sticks. Win (8), Exacta Box 1,6,8 and Trifectas 1,6,8/3,4,9/1,6,8<br /><br />5th – Contenders Only (B) – Courting Cat (1) had the best fig in the field in last and consistently finishes faster than these. Benefits from three way speed duel between the 3, 5 & 9 and shortens up for McCarthy. Centeno sticks. Win (1), Saver Exacta 5/1 and Trifectas 1,5/3,4,7,9/1,5<br /><br />6th – Contenders Only (C) – OFF THE TURF - Polarity (10) Ness’ six panel prep for the grass was satisfactory, but as it turns out Polarity simply stretches out today. Ness wins 44% with Sprint-to-Route angle. Win (10), Saver Exactas 4,8/10 and Trifectas 4,8,10/1,5,9,12/4,8,10<br /><br />7th – Contenders Only (C) – In Honor of Voula (1) has been working regularly and consistently with some great clockings for Owen McQuade. McQuade had FTS winner Xep for Elmer in 2007 and Jesse Garcia was aboard that one too! Satly Girl (3) comes back to the dirt for Mary Ann Bennett and drops in class today. Centeno is up and he rode her only other maiden winner in L3T. Five Star Sweetie (11) was close to par in debut, then disappointed as the beaten favorite in 2nd try. Centeno jumps to ride Bennett’s filly. Win (1), Exacta Box 1,3,11 and Trifectas 1,3,11/2,6,9,10/1,3,11<br /><br />8th – Contenders Only (B) – OFF THE TURF - Proctor comes Rightback with Brave Miz (5) after above par effort in Tampa debut. Centeno sticks (leaving Okefenokee). Pyrite Gem (2) is 9-14 ITM on the dirt and fits now. Okefenokee (3) is a solid 12.10 or better final fraction finisher and on the grass, handles the dirt well, and figures to improve in second off-the-claim for Dale Bennett. Prissy Proxy (6) has %E that is outside the upper parameter for today's race but she is 3-3 ITM and was above par in last. Win (5), Saver Exactas 2,3,6/5 and Trifectas 3,5,6/1,2,7,11/3,5,6<br /><br />9th – Contenders Only (C) – Ixtabentun (5) was above par in debut and goes for Ziadie who was 100% ITM with Layoff + Shipper + Dropdown angle in L2T. Win (5), Saver Exacta 6/5 and Trifectas 5,6/All/5,6<br /><br />10th – A Soft wager – Supply Guy (2) was given a freshener after winning three races in three months for Ness. Three of the horses that beat him in that very competitive last race (Fortunate Trail, Roboponi and Sneak A Cold Treat) went on to win subsequent races. If Supply Guy hasn’t gone wrong, he wins here. Win (2), Saver Exactas 1,4,7/2 and Trifectas 2/All/1,4,7<br /><br />11th – Contenders Only (C) – Catch a Peek (3) is a gently handled 8YO that was 5-9 ITM in 2008-2009 and is under the care of #4 leading trainer Kathleen O’Connell. Centeno has the return call and he jumps off the Robert Raymond runner Wicked Sweet (1) to stick with Catch a Peek. Wicked Sweet was the beaten favorite in last and Centeno’s jumping off does not instill confidence here but Raymond had five 2nd Off-the-Layoff + Stretchout winners in L2T. Did everyone but the bettors know she wouldn’t pop in last or did she genuinely disappoint? The jury is out. Seducing Mr. G (6) was in the zone at 8F in the fall and could surprise here. Miss Approval (8) moves up in class after tiring in last as the beaten favorite. This has me scratching my head too! Win (3), Saver Exactas 1,6,8/3 and Trifectas 1,3/2,4,5,6,8,10/1,3<br /><br />Good luck and good racing!<br /><br />Johnny B.John J Barilehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02240001070899763886noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5589521192063398221.post-69521863967636997612009-04-11T17:51:00.010-04:002009-04-13T20:31:23.753-04:00Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 04/14/09Prime Wager Results.14-33 (42%) -$6.60(14-3-6) (67% ITM)<br />Soft Wager Results....20-63 (32%) -$10.40 (20-14-7) (65% ITM)<br /><br />Seasonal Recap: 265 Winning Wagers<br />84 Winners (Average Payoff $5.90)<br />127 Exactas (Average Payoff $29.40)<br />50 Trifectas (Average Payoff $143.40)<br />4 Daily Doubles (Average Payoff $18.10)<br /><br />On Saturday, I had no prime or soft wagers.<br /><br />Among my contenders only selections:<br /><br />I had the winner of the 1st, Quick N Pink, $7.60,<br />My 1st race $16 trifecta returned $47.20,<br />I had the winner of the 2nd, Henry the K, $3.80,<br />I had the winner of the 3rd, R True Lady, $3.00,<br />I had the winner of the 4th, Count de Baran, $5.00,<br />My 9th race $12 exacta box returned $13.20,<br />My 9th race $24 trifecta returned $55.60,<br />My 11th race $12 exacta box returned $33.80, and<br />I had the winner of the 12th, Sunapee, $3.60<br /><br />So it goes...<br /><br />There are only 11 more race days of free selections before The Tampa Bay Downs Handicapper becomes a subscription only site. Avoid the annual subscription price increase (to $99 after May 3rd) and subscribe today for $25.<br /><br />Tuesday’s selections at <a href="http://www.thetbdhandicapper.com/">http://www.thetbdhandicapper.com/</a> :<br /><br />1st – Contenders Only (B) – Alexandra’s Halo (2) was above par in last two tries at 8.5F and returns to the dirt on the dropdown today. Sly Sara (6) goes for Robert Raymond and he had 7 stretchout winners in L3T. %E is just outside the upper parameter for today’s distance, but it’s close enough to make her a contender here. Little Freebie (7) goes for James Anderson and 4 of his 9 winners in L4T were First Three Off-the-Layoff + Stretchout types. Win (2), Exacta Box 2,6,7 and Trifectas 2,6,7/1,4/2,6,7<br /><br />2nd – Contenders Only (B) – Tawnimara (5) was above or very close to par before stepping up to the open $8000 level. McCarthy won 25% with Plain Dropdown + Shorten Up angle in L2T. Uno Way Calle (6) has been playing musical chairs since the new year began. Calle is back to Ness presently and he wins 39% (70% ITM) with first three off-the-claim. Calle is 10-16 ITM at Tampa, including 3-6 ITM this season. Blazing Prize (7) goes for Mr. Allen and he won 100% with the Non-layoff Dropdown + Route-to-Sprint angle in L2T. Win (6), Exacta Box 5,6,7 and Trifecta 5,7/1,3,4,6,8/5,6,7<br /><br />3rd – Contenders Only (C) – Lincoln Imp (7) has early speed and goes from PP7. The E/P’s won all five dirt sprints on Saturday and middle and outside posts have won 13 of the last 16 (in dirt sprints). Ima Lowrider (3) goes for Pompay and her only two winners in L3T were GP shippers. Centeno sticks. Looks like a misfire in last. Another chance on the drop. Devilish Mecke (1) has best fig in field in last and RoHo sticks but inside post is a detriment. Win (7), Exacta Box 1,3,7 and Trifectas 1,3,7/2,6,8/1,3,7<br /><br />4th – Contenders Only (D) – Soaring Storm (9) had the best figs in the field two and three back. Last was on an off track. Improves on a fast surface and with Gonzo back in the irons. Peekaboo Irish (2) goes for Cibelli and she has had 12 Layoff winners in L4T. Peekaboo is 69% ITM in 2008-2009. Montalcino (5) was close in last and has HVG up. Villa-Gomez had 4 winners and 3 seconds in the last three race days. Madonna Blue (7) is 6-6 ITM lifetime but had worst finish of her career in last. Win (9), Saver Exactas 2,5,7/9 and Trifectas 3,4,11/2,9/5,7<br /><br />5th – Contenders Only (C) – Lantern (6) was above par in last two on the grass. Zwiesler won 71% on the Dropdown L2T, won 35% with L1-3’s and was 67% ITM with Dirt-to-Turf types. Solid work at 5F from the gate last week. Win (6), Saver Exactas 3,8/6 and Trifectas 3,8/1,2,5,7,10/6<br /><br />6th – Contenders Only (D) – Wynn a Tour (2) had best fig in the field two back and first try at $8000 level was on an off track so he gets another chance here. Raced close to par in sophomore races at Tampa. Switch to #3 leading rider Ronnie Allen Jr. adds value. Win (2), Saver Exactas 1,6,10/2 and Trifectas 1,2/3,4,6,9,10/1,2<br /><br />7th – Contenders Only (B) – Transit of Venus (6) won last and comes back fast for Ness and he is 83% ITM with Rightback + Fastback types. Venus had the two best final fractions in the field in last two on the turf at GP. The Ness/Cruz team has won 5 of their last 10. Cheeks had three wins last year with Jaredstemper and the first time Jared won he was a Layoff + Shipper. Win (6), Saver Exactas 2,5,7/6 and Trifectas 2,5,6/7,8,14/2,5,6<br /><br />8th – Contenders Only (B) – Purely Precious (3) was above par in Maiden win, then was saved for another day after setting fast early fractions and getting caught in the Sophomore Stakes ten days ago. Call Nine One One (7) was second to Conchacer in last and he beat Scottish Mystery in that one. Scottish Mystery beat Gaara (2) two back and Gaara looks like the weakest of the three. However, Gaara does have red hot apprentice Mike Straight in the irons. He won three on Saturday. Win (3), Exacta Box 2,3,7 and Trifectas 2,3,7/4,6,8/2,3,7<br /><br />9th – Contenders Only (B) - We Will Rock You (11) goes for Clement who has won or placed in 19 of 30 this season. Centeno remains hot and this team has won 38% of their attempts this year. Myakka (8) goes for Linda Rice and she had 4 Layoff + Shipper winners in L2T. Looks tough here but Montalvo has been cold (only 1-36 in last 10 days). Megawattie (6) is the best of the locally based runners, was 5-6 ITM on the grass last year and has a win and a 3rd in two tries this year at Tampa. Salty Wave (5) outkicked Megawattie in last and is 4-6 ITM on the grass lifetime. Win (11), Saver Exactas 5,6,8/11 and Trifectas 6,8,11/6,8,11/5,6,8,11 or Win (8), Exacta Box 5,6,8 and Trifectas 5,6,8/5,6,8/ 5,6,7,8 (if the 11 is out).<br /><br />10th – Contenders Only (C) – Far Out Fiancee (11) goes for Cibelli and she is 86% ITM with Non-Shipping L1-3 + Dropdown types and 60% ITM with Route-to-Sprints. Faces a field of documented sub-par plodders here and should shine this afternoon. Win (11), Saver Exactas 3,4,9/11 and Trifectas 3,11/4,5,9/3,11<br /><br />Good luck and good racing!<br /><br />Johnny B.John J Barilehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02240001070899763886noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5589521192063398221.post-19739576752323991212009-04-08T13:57:00.023-04:002009-04-10T20:08:04.669-04:00Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 04/11/09Prime Wager Results.14-33 (42%) -$6.60(14-3-6) (67% ITM)<br />Soft Wager Results....20-63 (32%) -$10.40 (20-14-7) (65% ITM)<br /><br />On Tuesday, my soft wager in the 4th, Quiet Protest, won handily and paid $3.80.<br /><br />Among my contenders only selections:<br /><br />I had the winner of the 1st, Train to Glory, $5.00,<br />I had the winner of the 2nd, Demagoguery, $4.40,<br />I had the winner of the 5th, EFF Scherr, $6.40,<br />My 7th race $2 saver exacta returned $20.00,<br />My 7th race $12 trifecta returned $76.20,<br />My 8th race $12 exacta box returned $39.80, and<br />I had the winner of the 9th, Hero's Image, $4.20<br /><br />So it goes...<br /><br />There are only 12 more race days of free selections before The Tampa Bay Downs Handicapper becomes a subscription only site. Avoid the annual subscription price increase (to $99 after May 3rd) and subscribe today for $25.<br /><br />Saturday’s selections at <a href="http://www.thetbdhandicapper.com/">http://www.thetbdhandicapper.com/</a> :<br /><br />1st – Contenders Only (D) – Quick N Pink (5) is a 4yo maiden with 33% ITM. Deserves another chance in only 4th sprint attempt (and only 2nd at this $25,000 level). Crown Colony (1) has the early speed and the figs but Lockhart has no Turf-to-Dirt or Route-to-Sprint winners in L3T. No Pay George (9) goes for Downing and he has had four maiden winners in L3T but a 6YO maiden? Win (5), Saver Exactas 1,9/5 and Trifectas 5/All/1,9<br /><br />2nd – Contenders Only (B) – Henry the K (7) had untouchable turn times at Prairie Meadows in 3YO season and 2009 debut at rock bottom was on an off track. Henry gets another chance here. Ness is 78% ITM with 2L4-8’s, 65% ITM with 2S’s and wins 44% with Route-to-Sprints. HVG had two winners and two seconds Tuesday and Wednesday. Indigo Pagano (4) is 8-20 ITM and goes for the hot stable of Kathleen O’Connell with red hot RoHo in the irons. Waywardwillie (3) flashed speed at 7F and stretches out while dropping to rock bottom. Win (7), Saver Exactas 3,4/7 and Trifectas 3,4,7/1,5,6/3,4,7.<br /><br />3rd – Contenders Only (B) – R True Lady (1) was above par two back and was ridden out in last. Ziadie wins 35% with Rightbacks, 26% with Fastbacks, and 27% with Up In Class types. Hot apprentice Mike Straight has the return call. Win (1), Saver Exactas 4,6,7/1 and Trifectas 1/7,9,10/4,6,7<br /><br />4th – Contenders Only (C) – Count de Baran (2) goes for Dennis Manning and he is 5-11 on the grass this season. Centeno is up and he has ridden 4 of 6 of Manning’s winners. Count de Baran had the best final fraction in last and has the best fig at today’s distance. Terminal Burst (4) shortens up after a deceivingly decent effort in last. Adds L1 today. Has Gonzalez up and he wins 10% (25%ITM) on the grass. Win (2), Saver Exacta 4/2 and Trifectas 2,4/1,5,8,12/1,2<br /><br />5th – Contenders Only (C) – Proud Diligence (5) was 10 above par in last and is 3-6 in debut season at Tampa. Griffith win 19% (25%ITM) rightback. Griffith/Montalvo team is 52% ITM this season. Gun It (8) woke up in last and finished close to Proud Diligence. Diligent Won’s (9) figs have improved in last three and last was a par effort. Cruz had 3 ITM Tuesday and Wednesday and Artz/Cruz team is 45% ITM this year. Exacta Box 5,8,9 and Trifectas 5,8,9/1,4,7/5,8,9<br /><br />6th – Contenders Only (B) – Shanclif (1) was above par in last four, chased a very fast pace in last and had a sub-12 final fraction two back. Centeno is up. Win (1), Saver Exactas 4,9,10/1 and Trifectas 1/6,8,7/4,9,10<br /><br />7th – Contenders Only (C) – Misleader (3) has enough early speed to get free here. Gets the nod in 2nd try at rock bottom level after just missing in last. Ronnie Allen Jr. has the return call. Win (3), Saver Exactas 2,6,7/3 and Trifectas 3,6/2,7,9/2,3,6,7,9<br /><br />8th – Contenders Only (A) – Go to the Sun (3) goes for Jim Gulick and 9 of his 10 winners in L3T were first three off layoff types. HVG was ITM four times Tuesday and Wednesday. Later Gater (8) goes for Ziadie and he wins 46% (69%ITM) in first three off-the-claim and wins 25% on the grass. RoHo has been winning at a 25% clip for the last ten days. Fizzy Pop (10) has had the following final fractions in last four on the grass: 11.63, 11.72,11.46, 11.79. Goes back to the grass today for bomb maker Bernell Rhone. Watch out! Exacta Box 3,8,10 and Trifectas 3,8,10/2,4,7,9/3,8,10<br /><br />9th – Contenders Only (D) – Premier Roma (4) has three seconds in three tries. Maybe switch to Centeno can make the difference to get her home first. Proctor has firster Omega Cat (7) and he won 30% (50%ITM) with FTSs in L2T. Trix in the City (8) had 2nd best fig in last and red hot Cruz has the return call for veteran trainer Linda Rice. Sky Ride (11) goes for Zwiesler and he won 44% (56%ITM) with 2TSs in L2T. Debut was won with an 81 (today’s par is 72) and Sky Rides effort in that one was better than it appears. Exacta Box 4,7,8 and Trifecta Box 4,7,8,11<br /><br />10th – Contenders Only (C) – Cenzontle (8) had 11.52 final fraction in last at same class and distance for Ziadie. Almost all of Ziadie’s winners are first three off the layoff types. Cenzontle was supposed to win last and just missed. Gets another chance here. Win (8), Saver Exactas 2,5/8 and Trifectas 2,5,8/3,4,7/2,5,8<br /><br />11th – Contenders Only (C) – Rockon Rockoff (2) was the beaten favorite in last and gets another chance while shortening up at this rock bottom level. Taxicab (5) last raced on the same day as Rockon Rockoff and Taxicab finished with a better fig than that one. McCarthy switches to hot apprentice Mike Straight. My Heart Skips (6) has %E that is in the zone for the Sprint-to-Route and adds Centeno and that puts my antenna up. Exacta Box 2,5,6 and Trifectas 2,5,6/1,4,7/2,5,6<br /><br />12th – Contenders Only (C) – Sunapee (9) shortens up and drops down for Cataldi after finishing very close to par in first two. Win (9), Saver Exactas 1,2,5/9 and 9/4,7,10/1,2,5<br /><br />Good luck and good racing!<br /><br />Johnny B.John J Barilehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02240001070899763886noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5589521192063398221.post-30071408839998133282009-04-07T16:42:00.005-04:002009-04-08T10:54:30.298-04:00Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 04/08/09Prime Wager Results.14-33 (42%) -$6.60(14-3-6) (67% ITM)<br />Soft Wager Results....19-62 (31%) -$12.20 (19-14-7) (65% ITM)<br /><br />On Tuesday, I had no prime or soft selections.<br /><br />Among my contenders only selections:<br /><br />My 3rd race $36 trifecta returned $697.80,<br />My 4th race $2 saver exacta returned $15.60, and<br />I had the winner of the 9th, Hot Rod Tutt, $4.00<br /><br />So it goes...<br /><br />There are only 13 more race days of free selections before The Tampa Bay Downs Handicapper becomes a subscription only site. Avoid the annual subscription price increase (to $99 after May 3rd) and subscribe today for $25.<br /><br />Wednesday’s selections at <a href="http://www.thetbdhandicapper.com/">http://www.thetbdhandicapper.com/</a> :<br /><br />1st - Contenders Only (C) – 5YO season was best of career for Train to Glory (4) and she is 3-3 ITM at this $5000 level. Meredith (7) is a 4YO with a clean record that has been heavily backed in last two. Both are sub-par runners. Robyn’s Maid (3) had an excellent work on 3/8, then was no factor three weeks later. Stretches out and comes back fast for Dickau, who we have to assume is well intended here. Sweetsouthernfilla’s (5) figs have been decent and she returns to the route where she stole one in January. Win (4), Saver Exactas 3,5,7/4 and Trifectas 3,5,7/3,5,7/4<br /><br />2nd – Contenders Only (B) – Demagoguery (6) is a horse for the course that is 4-4 ITM this season. Had best fig in the field two back. Bennett wins 25% (75% ITM) with No Change types. Gonna Blow drops for bomb maker Bernard Bramante, but Gonna Blow hasn’t popped in a sprint since maiden win in 2005. Win (6), Saver Exactas 5,7,8/6 and Trifectas 6/3,4/5,7,8<br /><br />3rd – Contenders Only (C) – Ells Got Even (11) raced at par in last for Morales, who is 2-5 with maiden claimers this season. Centeno has the return call. Win (11) and Saver Exactas 3,6,8,9/11<br /><br />4th – A soft wager – Quiet Protest (8) is a daughter of #4 2009 Leading Turf Sire, Kingmambo and the granddaughter of #3 2009 Leading Turf Broodmare Sire, Sadler’s Wells. Goes for Clement/Centeno team that has been tearing it up this season. Was close to par and heavily backed in game debut. A trip to the winner’s circle is expected today. Win (8), Saver Exactas 5,9,10/8<br /><br />5th – Contenders Only (C) – EFF Scherr (12) figs have improved in each of last four. Is 5-5 ITM at the Downs. Cibelli wins 26% (56% ITM) on the stretchout. Mothers Eyes (9) tries rock bottom for the second time and figs have been satisfactory. Gets another chance here. Win (12), Saver Exacta 9/12 and Trifectas 9,12/3,6,10/9,12<br /><br />6th – Contenders Only (C) – Entice (1) had best final fraction in maiden win two back. Clement is 17-28 win or place and Centeno is 12-19 with Clement, including seven wins. Saldanha (2) goes for red hot K’OC who is 8-21 in last two weeks. Shortens up after facing tougher 25 days ago. RoHo is 5-10 in last two weeks. However, KO’C wins only 9% with shippers. Ness has Muddy Gator (8) but 4% turf rider HVG discourages a play here. Win (1) Saver Exacta 2/1 and Trifectas 1,2/5,7/1,2,5,7<br /><br />7th – Contenders Only (C) – Sharadhara was close to par in all three starts, returns from respectable grass effort and shortens up today, and Turf-to-Dirt + Route-to-Sprint angle works for Granitz. Nomudondehere (8) goes for Proctor who wins 19% (58%ITM) on the dropdown. Winless Diaz discourages play on the Criollo firster despite some solid works. Win (7), Saver Exacta 8/7 and Trifectas 7,8/2,7,8/1,6,10<br /><br />8th – Contenders Only (B) – Wild Brat (8) goes for Cibelli who wins 18% (45%ITM) with 2L1-3’s and 26% (56%ITM) with Stretchouts. Figures to improve. Megabuck (10) has had three solid efforts and will be under Centeno again today. Chobe (11) goes for Ness and he was 100% ITM with Rightback + Up In Class + Stretchout angle in L2T. Exacta Box 8,10,11 and Trifectas 8,10,11/5,6/8,10,11<br /><br />9th – Contenders Only (B) – Hero’s Image (4) made big move in par effort for maiden win. Bullet work 9 days ago was 2 clicks above par for 5F bullets. Looks like he’s ready for another winning effort for 54% ITM trainer Begley. Jamie Lopez has the call. Rare Ransom (7) had sub-12 final fraction in last and that was into a fast pace but Bernal is winless on the grass and that’s not encouraging. Win (4), Saver Exactas 1,3,10/4 and Trifectas 4/7/1,3,5,8,10<br /><br />10th – Contenders Only (B) – Gentlemen’s Club (5) won on the layoff last season and drops to the softer N1Y condition today for Guciardo. Bailey’s Dynasty (10) goes for Pittman and he had 5 fastback winners L2T. Goes (11) goes for O’Connor and he wins 24% with Claimers and had two best figs in the field two and three back. Exacta Box 5,10,11 and Trifectas 5,10,11/1,3,4,8/5,10,11<br /><br />Good luck and good racing!<br /><br />Johnny B.John J Barilehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02240001070899763886noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5589521192063398221.post-55018429546500026452009-04-05T16:39:00.007-04:002009-04-07T08:05:37.901-04:00Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 04/07/09Prime Wager Results.14-33 (42%) -$6.60(14-3-6) (67% ITM)<br />Soft Wager Results....19-62 (31%) -$12.20 (19-14-7) (65% ITM)<br /><br />On Sunday, I had no prime or soft selections.<br /><br />Among my contenders only selections:<br /><br />My 2nd race $2 saver exacta returned $32.80,<br />I had the winner of the 3rd, Master Speak, $4.40,<br />My 3rd race $24 trifecta returned $357.20,<br />My 6th race $2 saver exacta returned $32.40, and<br />My 8th race $8 exacta key box returned $31.20,<br /><br />So it goes...<br /><br />Tuesday’s selections at <a href="http://www.thetbdhandicapper.com/">http://www.thetbdhandicapper.com/</a> :<br /><br />Today's card is arguably the worst of the season, so a little restraint is in order.<br /><br />1st – Contenders Only (C) – Western Flight (6) drops to rock bottom after staying close to the fast early pace two back in a race that went in 74 (today’s par is 52) and then showing speed for a ½ mile on the grass in last. Winblaiseandshow (1) has best figs but he looks like a follower and not a leader. Win (6), Saver Exacta 1/6 and Trifectas 1,6/4,7,8,9/1,6<br /><br />2nd – Contenders Only (D) – Burning Belle (3) had best figs in last two after finishing 3rd in both. Dixville (6) raced forwardly in both tries at the route. I’m Jealous (7) wakes up regularly and adds Cruz, who had two winners and a 2nd over the weekend. Exacta Box 3,6,7 and Trifectas 7,9/3,6,11/7,9<br /><br />3rd – Contenders Only (B) – Gully Hill Road (8) had best fig in last and now has four 2nds in five starts. Goes for Mary Ann Bennett and most of her ITM finishes are in the first three off-the-layoff. Rainbow Glider (2) is ITM half the time and comes off two solid efforts. Frank’s Pride (4) goes for Bruce Alexander who wins 22% (67%ITM) with L4-8’s. This drop looks negative to me, but you never know. Mozart On Hold (5) has %E that is in the zone and effort in last was better than it appears. This drop makes sense. Win (8), Saver Exacta 2,4,5/8 and 4,5,8/1,2,6/4,5,8<br /><br />4th – Contenders Only (B) – Sneaky Guy (4) returns to 7F where he had an above par effort in January. K’OC has won 7 of last 17 and RoHo 9 of last 40. The team looks very tough here. Intrusive (2) goes for Terry Pompay and her last winner at Tampa was a GP shipper that paid $23.00. Pompay gets Centeno back in the saddle and he was ITM four times with Intrusive in the fall in New Jersey. Win (4), Saver Exacta 2/4 and Trifectas 2,4/3,5,6/2,4<br /><br />5th – Contenders Only (C) – Cold Brook (5) had big early fractions in last two and Knipe had an L1-3 + S + UC winner in L2T. Slick Jack (8) comes back fast for Clark after showing something early in last. Was close to par earlier in the season at 7F. Clark won 10% (25% ITM) with fastbacks in L3T. Exacta Box 1,5,8 and Trifectas 1,4,6/5,8/1,4,6<br /><br />6th - Contenders Only (C) – Silver Truth (2) settled for 2nd after gaining late in last and stretches out today. Was well above par two back. RoHo sticks. Win (2), Saver Exactas 4,7/2 and Trifectas 1,9,10/2,4,7/2,4,7.<br /><br />7th – Contenders Only (B) – My Dream Tomorrow (7) was 3-3 ITM at the Downs as a 3YO, broke maiden at Belmont and now returns to Tampa. Goes for Lynn Scace who won 33% with L4-8 + S types L3T. Last years #2 turf rider, Velez has the call. He has 8 turf winners this season. Win (7), Saver Exactas 2,3/7 and Trifectas 7/1,10,11/2,3<br /><br />8th – Contenders Only (A) – This Is My Game (6) goes for Proctor and he wins 43% with Non-shipping L1-3 + Distance Change types in L2T (no other public handicapper will give you stats like these). Figs are second best to African Angel (1) who goes for Fontana and takes a big drop after posting two above par numbers recently. African Angel was scratched from Stakes last Saturday (because he was not a Registered Florida Bred). Win (1), Saver Exacta 6/1 and Trifectas 1,6/All/1,6<br /><br />9th – Contenders Only (B) – Hot Rod Tutt (10) lacked room on the far turn and could not reach the leader in the stretch, but held the place by a safe margin in Tampa debut that went to $1.80-1 Been Awhile. Had untouchable final fraction two back at GP. Better trip gets Tutt home first for O’Connell and Centeno. Win (10), Saver Exactas 1,2,3/10 and DD 10/3<br /><br />10th – Contenders Only (C) – Bear Prayer (3) goes for Ziadie who was 100% ITM with Layoff + Shipper + Dropdown angle L2T. The drop looks negative but you can’t argue with his record. Stay for the Storm (4) takes a drop that makes sense, but Smock wins only 8% with Layoffs and 7% with dropdowns. If we can get a $6 double with the 10/3, I’ll be willing to hedge against Bear Prayer here. Saver Exactas 1,5/3 and Trifectas 1,5/1,3,4,5/1,3,4,5<br /><br />Good luck and good racing!<br /><br />Johnny B.John J Barilehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02240001070899763886noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5589521192063398221.post-22321496615982944602009-04-04T16:20:00.008-04:002009-04-05T10:54:31.734-04:00Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 04/05/09Prime Wager Results.14-33 (42%) -$6.60(14-3-6) (67% ITM)<br />Soft Wager Results....19-62 (31%) -$12.20 (19-14-7) (65% ITM)<br /><br />On Saturday:<br />My soft wager in the 5th, Scolara, finished 2nd.<br />My prime wager in the 6th, Anythingyouwant, took a bad step and was pulled up on the backstretch.<br />My soft wager in the 8th, Hypocrite, was out of the money.<br /><br />Among my contenders only selections:<br /><br />My 3rd race $12 exacta box returned $12.00,<br />My 5th race $4 saver exacta returned $26.00,<br />I had the winner of the 7th, Fearless Eagle, $10.80,<br />I had the winner of the 10th, Paradise Dancer, $4.40, and<br />My 12th race $2 saver exacta returned $21.00.<br /><br />So it goes...<br /><br />Sunday’s selections at <a href="http://www.thetbdhandicapper.com/">http://www.thetbdhandicapper.com/</a> :<br /><br />1st – Contenders Only (C) – Fort Knox (4) gave way after setting fast early fractions in last. Had best fig in the field in that one. Cruz remains hot. Fort Knox is 11-12 ITM at the Downs and had 10 win and place efforts last year. Uno Way Calle (5) comes right back off the McCarthy claim. She had two Up In Class winners off-the-claim in L2T. Straight is hot and Uno Way Calle sheds 11lbs. with Straight in the irons. Win (4), Saver Exacta 5/4 and Trifectas 4,5/1,2,3/4,5<br /><br />2nd – Contenders Only (C) – Alkmene (2) comes rightback for Brnjas and she wins 25% rightback. Alkmene has been ITM in 5 of last 6 dirt routes and has a nice clean record. Levy Light (4) comes rightback for K’OC and she is 50% ITM with Up In Class + Shorten Up angle. Carrtune Express (1) graduates from the N3L condition and moves in with the big girls. Doesn’t seem likely despite an above par effort in last. Win (2), Saver Exactas 4/2 and Trifectas 2/All/4<br /><br />3rd - Contenders Only (C) – Master Speak (5) bid three wide and weakened in first try at the maiden claiming level. Had the best fig in the field in last. Ness/Centeno team has 19 wins this season. Win (5), Saver Exactas 4,6/5 and Trifectas 5/All/4,6<br /><br />4th – Contenders Only (C) – Dixie Pipe (4) has been ITM in 17 of last 23. He was boxed in the turn in last, then made up some ground late. Dale Bennett wins 28% (ITM 68%) on the stretchout. Welcome Back (10) has hit bottom and Ness wins 33% (62% ITM) with 2L1-3s. Gonzalez has the return call. Win (4), Saver Exacta 10/4 and Trifectas 4,10/2,3,7,8/4,10<br /><br />5th – Contenders Only (C) – Sweetsouthernstar (2) had only above par fig in last (54) and three of last four figs were better than all of these except for Morning Mist (5) who won in debut with a sub-par 44. Morning Mist may not have shown us all her cards in maiden win but odds are against. Win (2), Saver Exacta 5/2 and Trifectas 2,5/6,9/2,5,6,9<br /><br />6th – Contenders Only (C) – City Way (6) had sub-12 final fraction in debut and adds blinkers today. Mott wins 30% (60% ITM) on the turf at Tampa. Montalvo, a leading turf rider has the call. Clement is 63% Win or Place at the Downs this season and What a Trouper (1) has Centeno in the irons. What a Trouper’s dam has two turf winners. Victoria Oliver and Greg Griffith have FTS winners this season. Win (6), Saver Exacta 9/6 and Trifectas 6/1,7,9,10/1,7,9,10<br /><br />7th – Contenders Only (C) – Sourpower (2) had three solid efforts while moving up in class before trying the grass in last. Comes back to the dirt and drops to rock bottom. Criollo is usually trying on the drop (44% ITM). Shot Gun Cliff (1) had two good efforts at the route earlier this season and he showed something in last two sprints. Judge Kelly (6) had only three starts on the dirt and drops to rock bottom today. He hasn’t shown himself to be a chronic loser on the dirt so he gets a chance here. Win (2), Saver Exactas 1,6/2 and Trifectas 1,2,3/4,6,8/1,2,3<br /><br />8th – Contenders Only (B) – Couple Whiles (1) had a sub-12 final fraction in last and races at this level for only the second time in a year. Was beaten in last by chalky GP invader Talented Princess. The veteran campaigner still hast it and will have something left for a big late run. Glen Wilding (2) goes for Delacour and she is second only to Clement in turf wins this year. Centeno has ridden 5 of her 10 winners. Gator’s Tracks (8) had above par figs in last four and Handy had a turf winner with Velez in the irons last season. Exacta Key Box 1/2,8 and Trifectas 1,2,8/3,7/1,2,8<br /><br />9th – Contenders Only (D) – Ocala Girl (2) had best figs in last two and drops for Navarro. HVG sticks. Straight Lady Luck (3) wakes up on the drop and adds Centeno. Little Freebie (5) drops to the bottom after showing something as a 4YO, but Anderson has no long layoff wins and the drop to rock bottom does not inspire confidence. Win (2), Saver Exactas 3,5/2 and Trifectas 2,3/4,5,6,10/2,3<br /><br />10th – Contenders Only (B) – Hurricane Tiger (4) is 4-4 ITM on the grass this year. Griffith has seven turf winners this year. Montalvo has ridden 21-25 of Griffiths winners. Truly Amazing (7) had best final fraction in last and was satisfactory in both tries on the grass. Win (4), Saver Exacta 7/4 and DD 4/3<br /><br />11th – Contenders Only (B) – Ness does his usual magic with Advice to Sinners (3) here. After being in the money in last four, Ness has the Layoff and Route-to-Sprint angles going and he wins 35% with L1-3s and 50% with Route-to-Sprints. Win (3), Saver Exactas 7,12/3 and Trifectas 3/8,9/7,12<br /><br />Good luck and good racing!<br /><br />Johnny B.John J Barilehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02240001070899763886noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5589521192063398221.post-57756622798353885822009-04-03T17:31:00.006-04:002009-04-04T19:12:25.342-04:00Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 04/04/09Prime Wager Results.14-32 (44%) -$4.60(14-3-6) (72% ITM)<br />Soft Wager Results....19-60 (32%) -$8.20 (19-13-7) (65% ITM)<br /><br />On Friday, I had no prime or soft selections.<br /><br />Among my contenders only selections:<br /><br />I had the winner of the 4th, Fire Ridge, $4.00, and<br />My 11th race $12 exacta box returned $27.00<br />Four of my contenders only plays scratched.<br />An off track, an off day.<br /><br />So it goes...<br /><br />Saturday’s selections:<br /><br />1st – Contenders Only (C) – Free Light (7) has the best fig in the field two back and shortens up for Griffith who wins 23% (62% ITM) with shorten ups. Erratic figs say she likes to play follow the leader. We’ll see. Katy’s Cupcake (1) goes for Cheeks and his only winning charge in recent memory (Jaredstemper) won off-the-layoff. Markswayornoway (2) had best fig in last and takes a big drop for Camilo. The three trainers with firsters each have one FTS win in L3T. Win (7), Saver Exactas 1,2/7 and Trifectas 5,7/1,2/1,2,5,7<br /><br />2nd – Contenders Only (C) – Suave Angel (2) had sub-24 turn time in above par effort in last. Is 7-8 ITM at Tampa and has red hot Cruz in the irons. Too Much Zip (3) goes for Ness and he wins 61% with L1-3 + Shipper + Dropdown angle. The real story here is Ness’s engagement of Gulfstream’s #8 leading rider Elvis Trujillo who is up for the day to try to make some big money. Win (2), Saver Exacta 3/2 and Trifectas All/2,3/2,3<br /><br />3rd – Contenders Only (A) – Gallant Lover (2) was beaten by Mr. Flatter and Stormin Yank in last and both went on to win in subsequent races and he finished ahead of Tytus who went on to finish 2nd twice in later races. Max Ahead (4) goes for Ness who wins 38% (70% ITM) with first three off-the-claim. Trujillo is up for Ness again in this race. Saucy’s Got It (7) returns to the dirt where he had two big figs. Smock goes to Centeno. Darn Straight (5) had impressive maiden win, but who did he really beat? Exacta Box 2,4,7 and Trifectas 2,4,7/5/2,4,7<br /><br />4th – Contenders Only (B) – Max Speed (8) gets the nod on the company she’s been keeping, the benefits of the racing experience she’s had, and her demonstrated superior early pace numbers. Bullet work last week was two clicks above par for bullets at 4F. Win (8), Saver Exactas 2,6,7/8 and Trifectas 7,8/2,6,7,8/2,6,7,8<br /><br />5th – A Soft wager – Scolara (6) steadied turn and stretch and still had a final fraction of 11.93 in last. In previous race an 11.41. Has a softer spot today. Mott wins 30% (60%) ITM on the grass at the Downs. Centeno is up. Has biggest Bris Prime Power advantage I’ve seen this season. Star Operator (3) goes for Ziadie and he was 100% ITM with Layoff + Sprint to Route and 100% ITM with Dirt-to-Turf angles in L2T. Has excellent works for the past month. Quiet Meadow (8) averaged 11.69 in final three panels in last (albeit from a slow early pace) but in previous race had an 11.84. She’s on the way up. Win (6), Saver Exactas 3,8/6 and Trifectas 6/2,9/3,8<br /><br />6th – A Prime wager – Anythingyouwant (9) should have an insurmountable lead at the 2nd Call in this one. Turn times are untouchable. Ditto for his figs. Bullet work six days ago was better than 71 others. Trujillo is in the irons for Pinchin. Win (9).Trifectas 9/2,3,6/2,3,6<br /><br />7th – Contenders Only (C) – Fearless Eagle (6) has had only three races since settling for third in last years Turf Classic and finished close in all three. Had a huge 11.11 final fraction in last. Will be tough to beat if he’s still ready. Win (6), Saver Exactas 1,4/6 and Trifectas 1,4,6/3,10,11/1,4,6<br /><br />8th – A Soft wager – Hypocrite (4) is on a roll winning two stakes in the last two months. Monstrous work on 3/29. Manoel R Cruz, a leader at GP is in town to ride. In last, Right Flanker stalked the pace setter throughout, drifted wide entering, put the leader away in the stretch and just missed after a late run by Stumbling Block. (Stumbling Block went on to win the Turf Marathon with the biggest figure of the year a 111). Win (4), Exacta Key Box 4/1,9 and Trifectas 4/All/1,9<br /><br />9th – Contenders Only (B) – These three have final fractions in the 11.7 or lower range. Tamborim’s (12) last two were closer to 12. Exacta Box 5,8,11 and Trifectas 5,8,11/10,12/5,8,11<br /><br />10th – Contenders Only (B) – The classy Paradise Dancer (3) takes a big drop after performing admirably in two stakes. Ziadie is 70% ITM with the Route-to-Sprint angle at Tampa. Leading owner Richard Averill looks to make another score. Win (3), Saver Exactas 6,7/3 and Trifectas 3/4,5,8/6,7<br /><br />11th – Contenders Only (B) – Gesundheit (2) has won last two and has the leading rider, Daniel Centeno (32% win on the Turf) in the irons. The 1 and 4 look tough but Baron Von Tap has 7% Ramgeet and Therecomesatiger has 0% Alvarado. Win (2), Saver Exactas 1,4,6/2 and Trifectas 2,6/1,3,4,5/2,6<br /><br />12th – Contenders Only (C) – Genuine Heart (3) figures to improve in second start after dueling and weakening in debut. Gerry Bennett wins 20% (60% ITM) with 2TSs. Allen sticks. Mr. Richmond Sir (1) had best fig in the field in last but is hampered by the inside post. Win (3), Saver Exacta 1/3 and Trifectas 1,3/4,8,9,10/1,3 (edited for typo).<br /><br />Good luck and good racing!<br /><br />Johnny B.John J Barilehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02240001070899763886noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5589521192063398221.post-34756840909312336372009-04-01T16:58:00.008-04:002009-04-03T12:33:56.940-04:00Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 04/03/09Prime Wager Results.14-32 (44%) -$4.60(14-3-6) (72% ITM)<br />Soft Wager Results....19-60 (32%) -$8.20 (19-13-7) (65% ITM)<br /><br />On Wednesday, I had no prime or soft selections.<br /><br />Among my contenders only selections:<br /><br />My 4th race $4 saver exacta returned $17.20,<br />My 8th race $4 saver exacta returned $24.60,<br />My 10th race $6 saver exacta returned $86.20,<br />I had the winner of the 11th, R True Lady, $3.20, and<br />One of my contenders only selections scratched.<br /><br />So it goes...<br /><br />I’ve gotten some positive feedback on the contenders only ratings but all agree that the numerical system should be replaced with an alphabetical system. This will reduce confusion by having fewer numbers to look at. So instead of a 1-10 Contenders Only rating there will now be a rating of A, B, C or D (with A getting my strongest support).<br />Thanks again for the comments.<br /><br />Friday’s selections at <a href="http://www.thetbdhandicapper.com/">http://www.thetbdhandicapper.com/</a> :<br /><br />1st – Contenders Only (C) – Alton Ferry (9) has a Change-of-Pace going and comes back fast for winless Edlkraut, who has not been shut out in L3T. She had three fastback winners in L3T too! Alton Ferry’s %E is just outside the upper parameter for 8.5F, but is closest to the par %E than any of the other Sprint-to-Route runners entered today. Glory Cat (6) has the best speed figs hands down but can’t seem to get home first. Win (9), Saver Exacta 6/9 and Trifectas 6,9/1,2,5,8/5,6,9<br /><br />2nd – Contenders Only (C) – McLovin (4). Four of the horses that McLovin faced in Tampa debut have gone on to win this season, including Mr. Flatter who won two. McLovin’s running style is flexible and that will provide him with a tactical advantage here. The layoff raises eyebrows, but Wright does win with layoffs at Tampa. I don’t like Western Night (6) here but on Tuesday and Wednesday, 9 of 11 dirt sprint winners had the lead at the 2nd Call. Nonetheless, Western Night will be pressured and he usually folds under those circumstances. Win (4), Saver Exacta 6/4 and Trifecta Box 2,4,5,6<br /><br />3rd – Contenders Only (D) – Early Again (12) had best fig in the field in last at 7F and %E is in the zone for 8.18F. Fontana wins with Sprint-to-Route types. Win (12) and Saver Exactas 7,9/12 or Win (7) and Saver Exacta 9/7 (if the 12 is out) and Trifectas 7,9,12/5,8,10/7,9,12<br /><br />4th – Contenders Only (B) – Fire Ridge (5) has the best fig in the field in last and that was after checking up in deep stretch when the winner drifted into the rail late. Allen’s claim of foul was not allowed (ostensibly because Fire Ridge was weakening and could not have won the race anyway). Until I see a reason to change my opinion, I’m sticking with speed in dirt sprints (see my notes on race 2). Win (5), Saver Exactas 4,9/5 and Trifectas 5/All/4,9<br /><br />5th – Contenders Only (C) – Privy Seal (10) had best final fraction in last as the beaten favorite, has two seconds this year and has won at today’s distance before. Transit of Venus (6) had great final fractions in last two and Ness wins 61% with the L1-3 + S + Dropdown angle. Cruz is hot, with 8-12 ITM in the last week. Quite the Guy (9) has only one turf win and that was at today’s distance. Is in great form now. I can see the Allen’s plotting a coup here. Lord Louis’ (4) final fractions have been getting softer and softer since the fall and I’m not expecting much from Lord Louis. Win (9) ON OFF TRACK ONLY, Exacta Box 6,9,10 and Saver Exactas 4/6,9,10 and Trifectas 6,9,10/3,4/6,9,10<br /><br />6th – Contenders Only (B) – Spanish Ambassador (8) gets the nod on front running style in this dirt sprint. Shortens up today. Centeno has the return call. McMullen had two layoff winners L2T. Scace has Penn Atlantic (1a) who had the best fig in the field in maiden win. Scace wins 60% with L1-3 + Rightback + Up In Class angle. Win (8), Saver Exactas 1a,7/8 and Trifectas 1a,8/All/1a,8<br /><br />7th – TURF ONLY - Contenders Only (A) – Coffee Cake (1) goes for Matz who is 3-9 on the grass and two of Matz’s three grass winners were Layoff + Shipper Types. Matz has a good turf rider in Montalvo. Star Fleet Command (3) is a Dennis Manning charge and he has five winners on the grass this season. Manning does not fool around. Star Fleet Command’s dam has one turf winner. Centeno is 3-5 with Manning this year. Storm Harbor (5) would be a soft wager off NY efforts and fast closing first try at the Downs, but Gonzalez has an unimpressive 5% strike rate in turf events. Exacta Box 1,3,5 and Trifectas 1,3,5/4,7,8/1,3,5<br /><br />8th – Contenders Only (C) – Once again I’m going with the early speed, so Algazara (7) gets the nod. Algazara dueled for five furlongs in last before weakening in the stretch. May have it all her own way up front today. Was above par two back in maiden win. Win (7), Saver Exactas 1,2,11/7 and Trifectas 2,7,11/1,8/2,7,11<br /><br />9th – Contenders Only (B) – Castles in the Sky (10) is Ness’s Lookinforthesecret story of 2008-2009. Claimed for $12500 last summer Castle has been on a roll ever since. The guy must have some eye. Goes off 2-5 today and is therefore unplayable but will be fun to watch. The Bennetts have three going. Maybe they’re gonna try to take Castles out of the race, but they’ll have to catch him first. Ruby’s Red Socks (4) has some monstrous figs and Ziadie is 100% ITM going Dirt-to-Turf in L2T. My Best Pal Red (7) has nothing to be ashamed of, is 3-4 ITM on the grass and Bennett is 68% ITM with L1-3s.Win (10), Saver Exacta 4/10 and Trifectas 4,6,7/All/4,6,7 (if Castles is out of the money, you go home a winner for the season with this bet).<br /><br />10th – Contenders Only (B) – Soy Latino (8) was the only horse in the race that was above par in last by my numbers. Ziadie is 78% ITM with 2L1-3s. Ziadie/RoHo are 40-56 ITM with 21 wins. Win (8), Saver Exactas 1,2/8 and Trifectas 1,2,8/1,2,8/4,6,10<br /><br />11th – Contenders Only (C) – Tytus (10) was checked up for racing room on the turn, lost about 1 ½ lengths in the process and finished strongly, gaining on the winner in the shadow of the wire in last. Had the best fig in the field in that one. Centeno has the return call for Ness. Sprint-to-Route is doable but not at the 3-2 ML. CR Dancing Fox (1) goes for Frances Gogas, a layoff specialist. Four of Gogas’ six winners in L3T were layoffs. Exacta Box 1,6,10 and Trifectas 10/All/1,6<br /><br />Good luck and good racing!<br /><br />Johnny B.John J Barilehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02240001070899763886noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5589521192063398221.post-80063172910865455762009-03-31T16:23:00.007-04:002009-04-01T10:12:39.464-04:00Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 04/01/09Prime Wager Results.14-32 (44%) -$4.60(14-3-6) (72% ITM)<br />Soft Wager Results....19-60 (32%) -$8.20 (19-13-7) (65% ITM)<br /><br />On Tuesday, I had no prime or soft selections.<br /><br />Among my contenders only selections:<br /><br />I had the winner of the 5th, Wise Frolic, $4.20,<br />My 7th race $6 saver exacta returned $18.00,<br />My 8th race $6 saver exacta returned $21.40,<br />I had the winner of the 9th, SS Royal Endeavor, $4.40, and<br />My 10th race $12 exacta box returned $22.80 (with the DH for 2nd).<br /><br />So it goes...<br /><br />This is not an April Fool's Day prank.<br />There are only 18 race days left before the $25 annual subscription price is history.<br />Subscribe now!<br /><br />Wednesday’s selections at <a href="http://www.thetbdhandicapper.com/">http://www.thetbdhandicapper.com/</a> :<br /><br />1st – Contenders Only (4) – Proud Escapade (5) races for the first time at this level since breaking maiden. Centeno takes the call. Was carried to best fig in the field two back. However, McCarthy wins only 10% on the dropdown L3T. Pressing Issue (7) comes back fast for Alexander and he had six fastback winners L3T. Golden Trend (8) won with the Fastback + Shorten Up angle for Simms last year at Tampa. Win (8), Saver Exactas 5,7/8 and Trifectas All/8/5,7<br /><br />2nd – Contenders Only (5) – A Question of Time (7) comes back to the dirt today where the 4YO had two seconds in last two sprints. Comes back fast for Bennett and adds Centeno. Winter Knight (5) was closest to par in last and RoHo sticks. Win (7), Saver Excata 7/5 and Trifectas 5,7/All/5,7<br /><br />3rd – Contenders Only (8) – A Slick Chic (3) takes a big drop for Ness after posting the best fig in the field two back. Ness wins 34% (66% ITM) with Stretchouts and wins 39% (63% ITM) with Dropdowns. Race two back was best recent fig in the field. Juicy Loots (6) had big fig in Tampa debut and is now 3-4 ITM at the Downs. Hands Wavering (5) has been very reliable and is now 11-16 ITM at Tampa. I expect improvement in 2nd try at this level. Monstrip (4) is an automatic throw out as McBride wins 1% with the First-Off-Claim + Up In Class angle. Exacta Box 3,5,6 and Trifectas 3,5,6/2,4,7/3,5,6<br /><br />4th – Contenders Only (5) – Dealing In Dreams (10) has %E that is closest to the par %E for the distance and was closing gap in last. Sheer Queenie (8) will have a big lead early but her %E says she will be used up before the stretch run. Win (10), Saver Exacta 3,8/10 and Trifectas 10/All/8<br /><br />5th – Contenders Only (7) – Hurricane Nikki (1) had her best final fraction of the season in last and that was at today’s distance. Is 5-10 ITM on the Tampa turf. Is overdue for a piece. Fergie’s Folly (5) has a hot trainer (KO’C 7-19 last 14 days) and a hot jockey (RoHo 7-28 last 14 days) and she had best final fraction of all of them in last. Photo Image (6) was right along side Fergie in last, is 16-26 ITM on the grass and goes for Ness. Exacta Box 1,5,6 and Trifectas 1,5,6/8,10,11/1,5,6<br /><br />6th – Contenders Only (7) – San Bernardo (11). Barbaran is the man with maidens (and N2L’s also). He has had 12 maiden winners in L3T and the vast majority of those won in first three off-the-layoff. Believe it or not, the 6 & 11 were closest to par in last as the winner won that one with a 74. Today’s par is 56. Look for a nice overlay here on both the 6 & 11. Win (11), Saver Exactas 3,6,9/11 and Trifectas 6,11/3,9/3,6,9,11<br /><br />7th – Contenders Only (8) – Misleader (6) posted the best fig in the field two back at 6F and shortens up today. This is Misleader’s first try at this rock bottom level. Veteran trainer Angel Hyland gets a couple to the winner’s circle every season. Switch to Ronnie Allen Jr. adds value. Who Loves Ya Baby (1) has been racing forwardly and had an above par effort going 5.5F in the fall. Last went in 58, today’s par is 41. Wasiluk had 10 Fastback winners and 5 Shorten Up in L2T. Win (6), Saver Exacta 1/6 and Trifectas 1,6/4,5,7/1,4,5,6,7<br /><br />8th – Contenders Only (8) – Perf (2) drops to this level for the first time and Bennett wins 25% (52% ITM) with dropdowns. Perf has the best final fraction in the field on the grass and has the best fig at today’s distance. Bennett engages one of his regular riders and Ronnie Allen Jr. is competent on the grass. Elegant Kindness (6) goes for the red hot team of K’OC and RoHo (5-11 in last two weeks) and virtues are obvious. Pleasure Academy (8) gets another chance after rough trip in last. Megaconfusion (9) has %E that says no and pedigree that isn’t encouraging. Win (2), Saver Exactas 6,8/2 and Trifectas 2,6,8/7,9,11/2,6,8<br /><br />9th – Contenders Only (6) – Give Me A Smooch (11) raced into an uncomfortably slow pace in last in open $12500 company. Always races above par. Expect dramatic improvement on the dropdown today. Miss Approval (3). The N3L has Miss Approval racing at the lowest level of her career despite the claiming price and she is responding. Had best fig in the field in last. Magical Isis (6) need only to shake free early and she’s gone. Centeno rides her this afternoon. Exacta Box 3,6,11 or Win (3) and Saver Exacta 6/3 and Trifectas 3,6/4,8/3,4,6,8 if the 11 is out.<br /><br />10th – Contenders Only (7) – Bucky’s Prayer (4) had one of the only two triple digit figs of the season, a 104 in last. (The other was a 111 by the Ness runner, Stumbling Block, who won the turf marathon last week). I have to respect that. And speaking of respect, the track record holder for today’s race, Charlie Papa (10) can’t be left out. The Laurel invader Libor Lady (7), beat Tampa favorite Bikini Atoll in tough competition and with no Optional Claimers in last. LL is 100% ITM on the grass. Win (4), Saver Exactas 5,7,10/4 and Trifectas 4,7,10/3,5,6/4,7,10<br /><br />11th – Contenders Only (10) – R True Lady (10) was well above par in last three and sheds 10 lbs. with Straight in the irons. The kid is for real. He beat Centeno in the feature yesterday and had two winners on the day. Win (10), Saver Excata 4,10<br /><br />Good luck and good racing!<br /><br />Johnny B.John J Barilehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02240001070899763886noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5589521192063398221.post-41034375540119534792009-03-29T17:12:00.008-04:002009-03-31T09:03:26.853-04:00Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 03/31/09Prime Wager Results.14-32 (44%) -$4.60(14-3-6) (72% ITM)<br />Soft Wager Results....19-60 (32%) -$8.20 (19-13-7) (65% ITM)<br /><br />On Sunday, my soft wager in the 4th, Eleven Eleven, finished 4th by 2 lengths at $7.50-1.<br /><br />Among my contenders only selections:<br /><br />My 1st race $4 DD returned $13.00,<br />My 2nd race $4 saver exacta returned $11.40,<br />My 3rd race $20 trifecta returned $34.80,<br />I had the winner of the 7th, R Vicarious Girl, $3.60,<br />My 7th race $18 trifecta returned $70.20, and<br />I had the winner of the 9th, She'll Be Right, $3.40.<br /><br />So it goes...<br /><br />One of my regular readers has suggested that I rank my contenders only selections, so beginning today, I’ll be rating them on a scale of 1-10, with 1 representing my weakest support and 10 representing my greatest support. Notwithstanding this change, I will continue to wager on my prime, soft and contenders only selections in a ratio of about 10-3-1 respectively. Contenders Only rankings will be made in parentheses, right after the words Contenders Only.<br /><br />Tuesday’s selections:<br /><br />1st – Contenders Only (3) – Steel Train (7) had best fig in the field in last and Michael Thomas had two stretchout wins in L2T. Sneaky Guy (10) just missed as the 1-2 beaten favorite in last and had best fig in the field at the route in that one. Win (7), Saver Exacta 10/7 and Trifectas 7,10/1,3,8,9/7,10<br /><br />2nd – Contenders Only (7) – Mean Kisser (2) won two since September and figs in those races are best in the field. Fontana wins 16% with L1-3’s (five times his overall win %) and he has the Distance Change and Jockey Change going. L.I. Iced Tea (4) drops for Mr. Allen and he wins 32% (52% ITM) with dropdowns. L.I. Iced Tea is 8-15 ITM at Tampa now. Summer Party Girl (6) shortens up and drops again after putting up two solid efforts following his first win of the season. Ziadie wins 30% with shorten ups. Exacta Box 2,5,6 and Saver Exactas 2,5,6/4<br /><br />3rd – Contenders Only (6) – Madonna Blue (1) is 5-5 ITM and goes for Ness who wins 38% on the Shorten Up and 30% going Up In Class. PP1 finally had a winner on Sunday. Centeno is aboard the 2 and he will do everything he can to keep Ronnie Allen Jr riding the 1 wedged between himself and the bad rail. La Tarzana (6) had best fig in the field two back and plunges in class today. Looks very tough here. Win (6), Saver Exacta 1/6 and Trifectas 6/1,2,4,5/1,2,4,5<br /><br />4th - Contenders Only (2) – Lincoln Imp (10) woke up in last and shortens up today, coming back fast for McCooey. Had best fig in the field in last. Cronk is always dangerous with Layoff + Shippers and Toms First Coyote (5) worked fast from the gate on March 12th. Win (10), Saver Exactas 5,8,11/10 and Trifectas 5,10/4,8,11/5,10<br /><br />5th – Contenders Only (2) – Wise Frolic (1) had best pace figs in the field in debut and in that one the winner finished seven lengths above par. Faces softer today. Win (1), Saver Exactas 2,3,5/1 and Trifectas 1/5,8,12/2,3,5<br /><br />6th – Contenders Only (5) – Exacta Box 6,8,9 and Trifectas 6,8,9/3,4/6,8,9<br /><br />7th – Contenders Only (9) – Islandprospectrbob (3) is the solitary above par horse in the field. Was claimed by Mary Ann Bennett in last and she won two in first off-the-claim last year for new owners Winning Stables. Centeno has the return call. Win (3) and Saver Exactas 5,6,7/3<br /><br />8th – Contenders Only (5) – Beat Your Bluff (7) was close to par in last, an N2L win. Edward Williams won 60% with Rightback + Up In Class angle and won 25% (50% ITM) with Sprint-to-Route angle in L3T. This is the kind of play that makes all the number crunching worthwhile. Win (7), Saver Exactas 2,6,8/7 and Trifectas 6,7,8/2,4/6,7,8<br /><br />9th – Contenders Only (7) – SS Royal Endeavor (7) was close to par in first two, goes for red hot trainer Kathy O’Connell who is 6-14 in last ten days. Switch to RoHo adds value. Win (7), Saver Exactas 2,11/7 and Trifectas 3,6,9/7/2,3,6,9,11<br /><br />10th - Contenders Only (4) – At Attention (2) gets another chance after chasing and giving way in first off layoff. McBride had nine 2L wins in L3T. Wild Brat (3) goes for Cibelli and she is 57% ITM with L1-3 + Shipper + Up In Class angle. Windowsoftheworld (6) goes for Ziadie and he wins 46% (69% ITM) in first three off-the-claim. Win (2), Exacta Box 2,3,6 and Trifectas 2/All/3,6<br /><br />Good luck and good racing!<br /><br />Johnny B.John J Barilehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02240001070899763886noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5589521192063398221.post-70793935080786989082009-03-28T17:45:00.011-04:002009-03-29T14:08:30.427-04:00Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 03/29/08Prime Wager Results.14-32 (44%) -$4.60(14-3-6) (72% ITM)<br />Soft Wager Results....19-59 (33%) -$6.20 (19-13-7) (66% ITM)<br /><br />On Saturday, I had no prime or soft wagers.<br /><br />Among my contenders only selections:<br /><br />I had the winner of the 1st, Awesome Style, $5.00,<br />My 1st race $16 trifecta returned $191.20,<br />My 6th race $4 saver exacta returned $26.80,<br />I had the winner of the 11th, Premier Take, $7.40, and<br />In two races my top contenders only selection scratched.<br /><br />So it goes...<br /><br />Sunday’s selections:<br /><br />1st - Contenders Only – Sensual Melody (6) is a sub-par plodder that is 4-12 ITM lifetime. She goes for David Wichmann, who has had only one winner at Tampa since Hector was a pup, although that was a Route-to-Sprint too! The 2-1 ML here is absurd. Exacta Wheel All/6 and Saver DD’s 6/4,9 (edited for typos).<br /><br />2nd – Contenders Only – Stormin Thru (9) goes for Scace and she has the best record with dropdowns, Win 28% and ITM 55%, and raced at today’s distance in last. Torch Me Again (2) goes for McCarthy and she had an MC8 FTS winner in 2007. Catius (8) goes for Lockhart and he’s had four L1-3 + Shipper angle winners in L4T. Win (9), Saver Exactas 4,8/9 and Trifectas 4,8,9/2,7,8/4,8,9<br /><br />3rd - Contenders Only – R True Lady (1a) will be content to watch her stablemate bang heads with the 2 & 5 from close behind a hot early pace and should have it her way late in the stretch run. Centeno jumps from the 6 to ride Jenna Lu Hu and she had above par fig in last, but McCarthy wins only 9% RB and 10% Up In Class. Win (1a) (but the 1 must go) and Saver Exacta 5/1a, otherwise Trifectas 2,5,6/2,5,6/1,2,6<br /><br />4th – A soft wager – Eleven Eleven (3) had the best fig in the field in last, after closing with a rush late. The six year old mare’s last win came in October and that was on 8 days rest. Bramante had 11 fastback wins and 6 stretchout wins L3T. Win (3), Saver Exacta 2/3 and Trifectas 2,3/6,7,8,9/2,3<br /><br />5th – Contenders Only – Win (2), Saver Exacta 4/2 and Trifectas 2,4/1,3,5/1,2,3,4,5<br /><br />6th – Contenders Only – Henry the K (6) goes for Ness and he wins 80% with the Layoff + Dropdown + Route-to-Sprint angle. Henry was above par in 3-5 lifetime starts. Ronnie Allen Jr. has the call and he is batting .333 with his Ness mounts. Moudy Blues (3) had 2nd best fig in field in last and Pittman brings him back fast and shortens up today. Pittman had five fastback winners L2T. Win (6), Saver Exacta 3/6 and Trifectas 2,5,8/3,6/3,6<br /><br />7th – Contenders Only – R Vicarious Girl (2) has the best figs in the field in last three starts. Ziadie is batting .363 on the grass this year. RoHo has ridden 19 Ziadie runners to victory. Lydia’s Love (1) is 5-10 ITM on the grass and had a sub-12 final fraction recently. Mike Allen has ridden 2 of Paquette’s 4 winners. Great work five days ago. Frontier Franny (8) and the Lady Waffles (7) have been ITM this season and both have had sub-12 finals. They’re overdue. Win (2), Saver Exactas 1,7,8/2 and Trifectas 2/1,7,8/1,6,7,8<br /><br />8th - Contenders Only – Wildcane (4) goes for Joe Ambrosia and he had five layoff winners L2T. This season he has three 2nds and a 3rd with layoffs. Wildcane is on the drop after putting up two wins and two 2nds in last four. Is clearly the most well intended among the entries choosing the condition over the Optional Claim. Win (4), Saver Exactas 1,2,8/4 and Trifectas 3,6,7,8,10/4/1,2<br /><br />9th – Contenders Only – She’ll Be Right (5) displayed superior fractions on a yielding turf course in debut. Proctor wins 33% with Sprint-to-Route angle and 18% Dirt-to-Turf. Centeno has the return call. Proctor/Centeno are 13-19 ITM this year. Smart N Lonely (1) also goes for Proctor. Smart N Lonely’s dam has 8 winners from 9 starters and two turf winners. Win (5) and Saver Exactas 1,4,8,10/5<br /><br />10th – Contenders Only – I Love to Say Yes (8) drops a notch for Fontana, after passing tiring rivals in first recent sprint. Fontana wins 10% (26% ITM) with dropdowns. The 7YO mare sheds 10lbs. today with Straight in the irons. I Love to Say Yes has no sprint wins lifetime but the old girl doesn’t have to beat much here. Soaring Storm (1) has the best figs in last two, but will have to overcome the inside PP. PP1 has not won a race in two weeks. Win (8), Saver Exacta 1/8 and Trifectas 1,8/6,7,9/1,8<br /><br />11th – Contenders Only – Mi Compadre (3) was close to par in first after long layoff. This is only his 2nd start at this level. Comes back fast for Berry. Yang has the return call. Don’tlaffhe’spaidfor (7) has has improved with each start and also comes back fast. Was beaten favorite in last two and that turns me off. It Is the Way (8) drops today after posting big fig in MC32 on off track. One of Chapman’s two winners L2T was a shipper. Win (3), Saver Exactas 7,8/3 and Trifectas 3,7,8/2,4,5/3,7,8<br /><br />Good luck and good racing!<br /><br />Johnny B.John J Barilehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02240001070899763886noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5589521192063398221.post-25148239553452225262009-03-27T16:55:00.006-04:002009-03-28T10:30:10.979-04:00Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 03/28/09Prime Wager Results.14-32 (44%) -$4.60(14-3-6) (72% ITM)<br />Soft Wager Results....19-59 (33%) -$6.20 (19-13-7) (66% ITM)<br /><br />On Friday, I had no prime or soft wagers.<br /><br />Among my contenders only selections:<br /><br />I had the winner of the 2nd, It's Dom's Turn, $3.80,<br />My 2nd race $48 trifecta returned $83.00,<br />My 6th race $16 trifecta returned $103.00,<br />I had the winner of the 7th, Lawrenceberg, $4.60, and<br />In two races, my top contenders only selections scratched.<br /><br />So it goes...<br /><br />Saturday’s selections:<br /><br />1st – Contenders Only - Awesome Style (4) has the best pace figs here and shortens up for K/O’C. RoHo sticks.The O’Connell/Homeister team is 50% ITM this season. Sneaky Irish Lass (12) goes for Jane Cibelli. She wins 24% with MC’s and was 4-7 ITM with L1-3 + S angle in L2T. Max’s Gal Pal (5) will be there if she gets closer to the front early. Win (4), Saver Exactas 5,12/4 and Trifectas 4/1,3,8,9/5,12<br /><br />2nd – Contenders Only – Fleet Rita (5) was above par in six of last ten and raced forwardly in last two. Early speed has dominated in dirt routes all season. Gerry Bennett is 83% ITM with Fastback + Dropdown angle and wins 33% with the Turf-to-Dirt angle. RoHo jumps from Saintly Miss (2) to ride Osceola Cat Dancer (7). Dangifiknow (6) was scratched by the Association Vet on 3/22. Win (5), Saver Exacta 7/5 and Trifectas 5,7/2,3,4,8/5,7<br /><br />3rd – Contenders Only – Keep Me Straight (11) won last two sprints on dirt surface at CRC. Cataldi had six Layoff winners in L4T. Win (11) Saver Exactas 5,9,10/11 and Trifectas 5,9,10/3,12/11<br /><br />4th – Contenders Only – Curragh Mon (6) was well above par in last at 6.5F and his %E is ideal for the stretchout. Kelode (2) goes for Phipps who is 5-7 at Tampa this season. Had excuses in last two. Bullet work four days ago. Rum Customer (5) has %E that is close to the lower parameter for 8.18F, could pop on the stretchout. Win (6), Saver Exactas 2,5/6 and Trifectas 2,6/3,5/2,3,5,6<br /><br />5th – Contenders Only – Transit of Venus (11) has sub-12 final fractions in last two. Ness won 61% with L1-3 + S + Dropdown angle L2T. Win (11), Saver Exactas 4,10/11 and Trifectas 11/2,4,10/2,4,10<br /><br />6th – Contenders Only – Seniors Pride (10) was above par in second start and is likely to improve for Ziadie who is batting .300 this season. Ziadie/Ramgeet are 66% ITM. Win (10), Saver Exacta 3,8/10<br /><br />7th – Contenders Only – My Sweet Natalie (5) has impressive record and raced at or above par in last three. Centeno will be in the irons. Tavata (3) returns to 5F on the grass where she has a win, second and a third in last three races. Has been racing with better than these. Tavata broke her maiden with Noguera and she has the call this afternoon. Win (5), Saver Exacta 3/5 and Trifectas 3,5/All/3,5<br /><br />8th – Contenders Only – Trifecta Box 1,6,9,10<br /><br />9th – Contenders Only – Onotheregoestokyo (2) has been very consistent this season and he won this 11F marathon last year at Tampa with an above par fig. Otis Ridge (3) has had two good above par efforts recently and has won at 9F. Cryptogram (4) has been deadly all season and may have no trouble going longer. Approved by Dylan (6) finished close to Ono in last and he won a marathon at Monmouth Park last summer. Trifectas 2,3,4/2,3,4,6,9/2,3,4,6,9<br /><br />10th – Contenders Only – Moonshine Talk (3) goes for the competent Nabu Morales and is on the drop today, adding blinkers and Lasix 1. Moonshine had great work one week ago. Two out of three aint bad. El Supremo (8) goes for Gerry Bennett and he is 83% ITM with Fastback + UC angle L2T. K’OC has Time for Truth but she was 0% Rightback and only 13% Up In Class L2T. Win (8), Saver Exacta 3/8 and Trifectas 3,8/1,9,10/1,3,8,9,10<br /><br />11th – Contenders Only – Blazing Prize (1) has won at the route in the past and plunges today for Allen who wins 33% of races on the dropdown. Second and third race back were well above par. There is good value here. Premier Take (5) was outgunned in last but finished well above par in that one. Won two previous. Has been ITM in last ten in a row. Certainly fits. Win (5), Saver Exacta 1/5 and Trifectas All/1,5/1,5<br /><br />12th – Contenders Only – Win (7), Saver Exacta 1/7 and Trifectas 1,7/2,4,5,6/1,7<br /><br />Good luck and good racing!<br /><br />Johnny B.John J Barilehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02240001070899763886noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5589521192063398221.post-61519745791599092672009-03-25T15:34:00.009-04:002009-03-27T16:40:15.380-04:00Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 03/27/09Prime Wager Results.14-32 (44%) -$4.60(14-3-6) (72% ITM)<br />Soft Wager Results....19-59 (33%) -$6.20 (19-13-7) (66% ITM)<br /><br />On Tuesday, my soft wager in the 9th, Moonshine Mania, settled for 3rd at 7-1.<br /><br />Among my contenders only selections:<br /><br />My 1st race $4 saver exacta returned $17.40,<br />My 3rd race $6 saver exacta returned $23.40,<br />My 7th race $4 saver exacta returned $19.20, and<br />My 10th race $4 saver exacta returned $39.20.<br /><br />So it goes...<br /><br />Hundereds of followers of The Tampa Bay Downs Handicapper throughout the United States, Puerto Rico and four foreign countries can't be wrong. Your $25 annual subscription ensures uninterrupted delivery of my selections and my reports for the next year and includes my top 50 Tampa Bay Trainer Profiles for 2009-2010. In December, the free site is history and the subscription price rises to $99. Avoid the price increase by subscribing now. Also, I'm contemplating a Spanish language version of The Tampa Bay Downs Handicapper beginning in December and I'd love to hear from those of you who may be interested in this. Thanks again for your continued support!<br /><br />Friday’s selections:<br /><br />1st - Contenders Only – My Espresso (4) improves with each start. One of Pierpont’s four winners in the last three seasons was a fastback type. Griffith has Reagin’s Pride (1) and he’s great with firsters, but he had none at the MC8 level in the last three seasons. Miller has Bipette (6), but he had no L4-8 winners in the last three seasons. Win (4), Saver Exactas 3,8/4 and Trifectas 4/1,2,5/3,8<br /><br />2nd – Contenders Only – It’s Dom’s Turn’s (2) current form and liking for the Tampa surface have to make him my top choice here. Dom is 7-10 ITM at Tampa, including five wins. Gerry Bennett has Keynes (7) and he has won 3 of 4 with the L4-8 + S + Dropdown angle. Bennett has an incredible 50% ITM record from 140 starters this season. Western Pirate (4) has won or placed in 14 of 27 starts. Nabu Morales is a competent trainer, but I am without intel on his modus operandi. Centeno answers the call. Can’t be left out. Win (2), Saver Exacta 7/2 and Trifectas 2,4,7/2,4,7/2,3,4,6,7<br /><br />3rd – Contenders Only – Rainbow Glider (2). Behrens tried to steal last one at 24-1 and had to settle for 2nd. Glider has seven seconds to his credit. Shortens up today. Primogeniture (6) has one second in five dirt routes and returns to the dirt today. It’s a mystery why Bates would send Primo south to an ALW race where he went to post at 222-1 and now drop him to rock bottom N2L but I’m concluding that this is not a negative drop. Red hot RoHo (two wins and two seconds on Tuesday) has the call. Win (2), Saver Exacta 6/2 and Trifectas 2,6/3,7,8/2,3,6,7,8<br /><br />4th – Contenders Only – Ten Ten Ten (10) goes for Moises Yanez and he has only two winners at Tampa in recent memory, both of them Layoff + Shippers. On a scale of 1-10, Ten Ten Ten’s figs are a 10 among today’s starters. Tag You’re It (4) has improved in every start and had excellent work two weeks ago. Can struggling Yang get him home first? Salsbury (12) has the best fig among recent starters. Win (10), Exacta Box 4,10,12 and Trifectas 4,10,12/1,3,7,8/4,10,12<br /><br />5th – Contenders Only – Sweet Paprika (11) was ITM in 11 of 17 in 2008, with 3 wins, and was up for the place in last two weeks ago, unlike the 7 & 8 who haven’t won a race since 2007. However, Wicked Sweet’s (7) trainer Robert Raymond has won with 7 layoff runners in the last couple of seasons and Centeno is up. Dual Diagnosis (8) finished close behind Sweet Paprika and may be returning to her 3 and 4 year old form. Cincy Girl (9) won at this distance last year at Tampa, but her current form is questionable. Win (11) and Saver Exactas 7,8,9/11 or Exacta Box 7,8,9 (if the 11 is out).<br /><br />6th – Contenders Only – Lunar Crop (9) was 2nd in second grass start and his workout four days ago was four clicks above par for bullets at 4F. Ronnie Allen Jr. has the return call for Tom Proctor, who has seven grass winners this season. Allen has ridden half of Proctors winners this year. Awesome Charlie (1) and Sharpness (5) were both banged around after the start in last and Charlie was checked for room on the clubhouse turn. Their final fractions were acceptable. Both improve with better trips today. Win (9), Saver Exactas 1,5/9 and Trifectas 1,9/5,8,13/1,5,9<br /><br />7th – Contenders Only – Lawrenceville (7) had untouchable fractions in last and his turn time was faster than his 1st Call time. If he can repeat that effort, there would have to be a big surprise for an up set to occur. It looks like the rest of the early speed will be chasing before tiring. Win (7) and Saver Exactas 4,5,8/7<br /><br />8th – Contenders Only – Very Capo (4) has produced in whatever way Ness has asked and is in great form now, coming off two above par wins. Crackenthorpe (6) has satisfactory figs and his final fractions indicate reliability and a strong late run here. He is the only one of my top three whose last was at today’s distance. Champagne Brunch (12) had best final fraction in last and Centeno jumps off Very Capo. Will be very tough if he gets in. Exacta Box 4,6,12 and Trifectas 4,6,12/2,5,8,10/4,6,12<br /><br />9th – Contenders Only – This Is My Game (9) and Heez for Doc (5) both have a win and a second in five starts on the dirt, but Proctor’s charge gets the nod on his 33% win (50% ITM) record with Sprint-to-Route angle. Flashy Wonder (1) had big fig in last and is ITM in 6-10 at the Downs, however Downing has no Sprint-to-Route wins in the last three seasons at Tampa. Win (9), Saver Exactas 1,3/9 and Trifectas 1,3,9/4,5,7/1,3,9<br /><br />10th – Contenders Only – Tahoe Warrior (4) goes for Linda Rice who had four Layoff + Shipper winners in the last four seasons at Tampa, quite an accomplishment given the small number of starters she has here. Tahoe Warrior drops and Centeno will be in the irons. Not Acclaim (10) had monstrous 1st call fractions in last two and that was on turf course with -7 variant both days. Clocker needs to check his stopwatch after Xep for Elmer (2) went four furlongs a full second above par for bullet works at 4F twelve days ago. Win (10), Saver Exacta 4/10 and Trifecta Box 2,4,8,10<br /><br />11th – Contenders Only – Rockon Rockoff (5) has best figs in the field in last two and drops a notch here. Gilded Key (8) won last and comes back fast for McCooey and he had three fastback winners in last two seasons. He also had two wins on the stretchout. Back figs say he can compete at the route. Kinfolk Moonshine (1) was up for second after going Sprint-to-Route earlier this season. Is 47% ITM at Tampa. Exacta Box 1,5,8<br /><br />Good luck and good racing!<br /><br />Johnny B.John J Barilehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02240001070899763886noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5589521192063398221.post-2313839057785370152009-03-24T16:15:00.008-04:002009-03-24T16:46:17.843-04:00Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 03/25/09Prime Wager Results.14-32 (44%) -$4.60(14-3-6) (72% ITM)<br />Soft Wager Results....19-58 (33%) -$4.20 (19-13-6) (66% ITM)<br /><br />On Tuesday, I had no prime or soft wagers.<br /><br />Among my contenders only selections:<br /><br />I had the winner of the 1st, Meganello, $8.60,<br />My 5th race conditional soft wager was scrapped when Irish Channel went to the post at 9-2 odds, but if you stuck with it, my $6 saver exacta returned $23.40 (I didn't.),<br />My 6th race $12 exacta box returned $25.80,<br />I had the winner of the 8th, Between Us, $6.00, and<br />I had the winner of the 9th, Rock Lobster, $6.00. <br /><br />So it goes...<br /><br />Wednesday’s selections at <a href="http://www.thetbdhandicapper.com/">www.thetbdhandicapper.com</a>:<br /><br />1st – Contenders Only – Timetolitethestar (1) was ITM in 3 of 4 routes since December 4th. Dixville (6) drops to rock bottom after trying to steal one at 21-1 two back at the route. Osceola Cat Dancer (12) goes for KO’C and she’s had at least six 2L winners in the last two seasons. The favorite will probably take it, but Pompano Beach Rose (9) was the beaten favorite four times and the beaten second choice four times and on that basis does not deserve your support. Exacta Box 1,6,12 and Saver Exactas 9/1,6,12 and Trifectas 1,6,12/9/1,6,12<br /><br />2nd – Contenders Only – Lynn Scace brings back Dale’s Token (5) for his third race in 15 days after being well backed in last two. She wins 22% (56%ITM) with fastbacks. There is no doubt in my mind that Dale’s Token is well intended here. Ogacat (9) also comes back fast and is on the dropdown for Stephens. Leading rider Daniel Centeno is aboard Ells Got Even (8) but he is not revered for his ability to win with closers. Win (5), Saver Exacta 9/5 and Trifectas 6,8/5,9/4,5,6,7,8,9<br /><br />3rd – Contenders Only – Mike’s Classic (9) has not won since opening day 2006, but has three seconds since November 10th. Last was closest to par among these. Ziadie is batting .300 but is 0-10 in last ten days. He is overdue now. Gentlemen’s Club (1) goes for Guciardo and three of her last eight wins at Tampa were with L2’s. West Texas (2) was second to Mike’s Classic in last. Stop The Race (5) won four of last 15 starts. Mr. Chocolatte (8) was third to Mike’s Classic in last. Win (9), Saver Exactas 1,2,5,8/9 and Trifectas 1,2,9/1,2,9/5,8<br /><br />4th – Contenders Only – Juanchon Juanchon (4) chased and faded in last, but the par 60 race went in 79. The competition is much softer today and you’ll find some real value here. The Redfox (6). Centeno jumps from the 10 to ride The Redfox (6) and I’m not sure why. Could be the foxe’s 5-14 ITM record. Brave Troy (10) had best fig among these in last and goes for Earl Begley, who has won 28% in sprints this season. Exacta Box 4,6,10 and Trifectas 4,6,10/1,5,8/4,6,10<br /><br />5th – Contenders Only – Fagedaboutitsal (6) was beaten by lightly raced and heavily backed Matz runner Star Emerald in last. Seven race winner Frontier Franny was second. Looks like she’ll have the front all to herself again. Excellent work one week ago was two clicks above par for bullet works at 5F. Carvajal had three layoff winners in last two seasons at Tampa. Win (6), Saver Exactas 1,10/6 and Trifectas 1,6,10/4,7/1,4,6,7,10<br /><br />6th – Contenders Only – Many Mesas (1) surprised in last after receiving strong backing at the windows and may surprise again today. Many Mesas is 5-7 ITM now at Tampa and Girten-Drake brings the 4YO gelding back fast. Heaven’s Reward (7) has the two best figs in the field in last two and drops for Jim Chapman, but he went to leading rider Daniel Centeno to ride both of his winners in the last two seasons at Tampa. The absence of a leader in the irons is conspicuous and suspicious. Thalian Hall (9) has been sub-par but very reliable all season and Proctor wins 33% with No Change angle. Exacta Box 1,7,9 and Trifectas 1,7,9/2,3,6/1,7,9<br /><br />7th – Contenders Only – Gold Jolie (3) had best figs in the field in two of last three by my speed numbers and picks up Centeno today. There is virtually no change in class between the C5N2Y and C6250 classes. “Primum non nocere” is the operative latin phrase here. If the new barn does no harm, Gold Jolie should be right there. Win (3), Saver Exactas 2,4/3 and Trifectas 2,3,4/1,6,7/2,3,4<br /><br />8th – Contenders Only – Premier Roma (9). A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. Was second in both starts and debut was above par. Proctor and Zwiesler are 50% and 62% ITM respectively with firsters. Whiff (3) goes for Delacour but she has no FTS winners in the last three seasons. Win (9), Saver Exactas 2,8/9 and Trifectas 9/4,5,6/2,8<br /><br />9th – A soft wager – Moonshine Mania (4) was checked sharply for racing room at the top of the backstretch losing about two lengths, then got back into contention, then had to swing to the outside from the rail around three runners in deep stretch and finished with a late rush in last. (Grunder botched the call, if you decide to watch it). MM was supposed to win at 45-1 and the bad trip kept the coup from being executed. We are on to you now Mr. Wilson. Jockey switch to Willie Martinez may reflect Wilson’s angst with regular rider Ortiz or may just be heads up work by Martinez and his agent. MM’s fig was good enough to beat these. Win (4), Saver Exactas 1,7/4 and Trifectas 4,6,8/4,6,8/1,4,6,7,8<br /><br />10th – Contenders Only – Beautiful Insight (9) goes for George Heath who had three longshot winners in the last few weeks of the 2007 season. Was trying to steal one two back at 6-1 but just missed. Then Beautiful Insight just missed again after wide trip under Martinez. Sheds 10lbs. in switch to Straight. Raced above par in last two and that’s more than the rest of these plodders can say for themselves. Win (9), Saver Exactas 2,8/9 and Trifectas 8,9/2,3,10,11/2,8,9<br /><br />Good luck and good racing!<br /><br />Johnny B.John J Barilehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02240001070899763886noreply@blogger.com1