Saturday, May 3, 2008

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 05/04/08

Results 65-209(30.9%) +$24.00 (65-30-26) (58.0% ITM)

On Saturday, in the 2nd my soft wager, Oberalp won by a neck and paid $6.20. In the 12th, my soft wager Crown Colony finished fourth after chasing into the stretch and giving way at $5.40-1. So it goes...

On Sunday, another winning season draws to a close. The worn out, overworked part of me is kinda glad. I look forward to the reprieve, a chance to relax, and six months to analyze and reevaluate all of my strategies. Some time to replay and cherish this year's biggest victory's and to identify handicapping flaws that may have been responsible for my biggest losers. As Spring turns to Summer, I'll be reporting back on the insights that will make 2008-2009 another winning season. Thanks for checking in each day and for the occasional comments. It's necessary to be recognized by our peers. It inspires us to keep going (especially when the chips are down).

On Sunday, another great card and one last chance to get it right!

1st - Exacta box 11/1,6 and DD 11/All

2nd - Exacta box 1,9 (Pass)

3rd - Exacta box 9/2,11 (Pass)

4th - A prime wager, Mr. Flatter (PP5). In his last, Mr. Flatter was beaten by Repenting who posted a monstrous figure of 99 for the 7F in the Sophomore Stakes. At the 6F point of call, Mr. Flatter was two lengths behind the winner who went six in 109.6. Mr. Flatter's effort after 6F equates to a fig of 103. Even if he weakens again this afternoon, he should win against a bunch of par 75 types. Bet win and a 5/2,4 exacta box for a saver.

5th - Exacta box 4,8,10 (Pass)

6th - Exacta box 6/8,9,11

7th - Trifecta 2,3/2,3/6,8

8th - Exacta box 2,4,9

9th - Trifecta box 2,7,8,9

10th - Exacta box 4/2,6,9

11th - A soft wager, Pirate King (PP8). The following is an excerpt from my blog entry of 4/5: "Horses to watch - In the 10th, Pirate King was 6 or 7 lengths behind in the early going and was so full of run late, he almost came out of his skin, but was stuck behind a wall of horses in the stretch. Next time at 5F grass or dirt." I remember the race clearly. If there was a seam, the King would have won. Today he faces the Fox (PP9) again, along with some other tough ones including Therecomesatiger (PP1), Awesome Attitude (PP5) and Xep for Elmer (PP10). I don't know how it's going to shake out, but Pirate King will get a piece at the right price if he's still sharp. This is what I'm doing: A moderate win bet on Pirate King (PP8), an Exacta box 8/5,9,10, trifectas 1,3/5,8,9,10/5,8,9,10 and DD's 8/1,5,10.

12th - Exacta box 1,5,10

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

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