Prime Wager Results.11-29(38%) -$11.60(11-3-6) (69% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....13-45(33%) -$14.60 (13-9-4) (58% ITM)
On Sunday, prime wager in the 6th, Avanti Avanti won handily and paid $3.60. I was 0-5 with my soft wagers, managing only a 2nd and two 3rds. Among my contenders only selections, my 10th race $20 trifecta wager clicked for $94.40. I lost three double digit horses (including Knockinelder $52.60 in the 8th) when my contenders only exactas failed to click on one end. So it goes…
Tuesday’s Selections:
1st – Contenders Only – Exacta Key Box 10/7,11 and Trifectas 7,10/2,11,12/7,10
2nd – Contenders Only – Exacta Key Box 4/6,8,12 and Exacta 4/2 and Trifectas 2,9,10/6,8,12/4
3rd – Contenders Only – Exacta Box 6,7,8 and Trifectas 9/6,7,8/6,7,8
4th – Contenders Only – E Harner (2) has some good back figs and last was on a Good surface, but a 44 in a par 64? Granitz is 1-15 with fastback types. I can’t be enthusiastic about E Harner. Exacta Box 2,3,8 and Trifectas 2,3,8/6,7/2,3,8
5th – Contenders Only – Go Tebow Go, was a FTS turf winner at Tampa last month. His dam, Lady Buttercup is out of Meadowlake, the sire of Medowquest (6). Medowquest put up an above par effort as a FTS at 6.5F three weeks ago. Tries the grass today. Could pop. Sky Dancer (2) and Count de Baran (9) have final fractions that qualify them as contenders. Loose Goose (7) had a monstrous final fraction in last, 11.69, has all sub-par Beyers though. Exacta Box 2,6,9 and Trifectas 2,9/6,7,8/2,6,7,8,9
6th – Contenders Only – Juicy Point (7) takes a minor drop in class today and shortens up, trying to make it four in a row after racing well above par (with a 76) in last. Clearly the horse to beat. Expect Validity (8) the veteran campaigner faced very tough competition in starter race last time out at 7F. That one was won with a 92, with the seven panels going in 123.88. Expect Validity posted a 78 in that one, today’s par is 70. Ziadie/Homeister team looking for another victory. Exacta Box 7,8 and Trifectas 7,8/3,4,5,6,9/3,4,7,8
7th – Contenders Only – Exacta Box 1,7 and Trifectas 1,7/3/1,7
8th – Contenders Only – Exacta Box 3,4 and Trifectas 3,4/6,7,8/3,4
9th – Contenders Only – Exacta Box 1,4 and Trifectas 1,4/2,7,8,9/1,4
10th – Contenders Only – Gerry Bennett’s go to rider LA Gonzalez jumps off of Flying Palm (1) and onto Chromystic (8) whose figs are sub-par but reliable, in a race where there is really nothing to write home about. Chromystic is ITM ½ the time. Mahvelous Bert (3) has been claimed four times in the last year and is also very reliable. Switch to Centeno adds value. Exacta Box 3,8 and Trifectas 3,8/1,10,11,12/3,8,11
Good luck and good racing!
Johnny B.
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3 comments:
I discovered your site by accident from a Google search on Tampa Bay Downs. Looks interesting. I play TAM when my schedule allows (which is infrequently right now). I did handicap yesterday's card (2/8/09) and reviewing the results, would you concur that the rail was not the pace to be?
Gary V,
I would agree with your comment but I wouldn't say I rises to the level of a bias just yet. The real story is the continuing softening of the ability of early speed to get the job done in dirt sprints. Two weeks ago 90% of the races were won by E/P types. From Thurs-Sun that number dropped to 60% and day after day, the winners are coming from further and further off the pace. Good luck!
I was not at the track, so I am going by my reading of the charts. Whenever I see early speed not winning over the course of a racing card, I suspect a dead rail, since most early speed runs on the rail while closers tend to run wide. For me, a dead rail is the worst handicapping situation. Even taking post position into consideration, it is difficult to know which horses will not run on or near the rail. Gary V
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