Sunday, March 8, 2009

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 03/10/09

Prime Wager Results.13-31 (42%) -$7.80(13-3-6) (71% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....16-54(29%) -$20.60 (16-13-5) (63% ITM)

On Sunday, I had no prime or soft selections. Among my contenders only selections, my 5th race $6 saver exacta returned $10.20. Longshots broke up everything again today. I had one of them in my 2nd race exacta key box, Golden Trend ($37.20), but that was broken up when my key horse Victory at Midway (the second choice) stopped. So it goes...

Tuesday’s selections:

1st – Contenders Only – Dale’s Token (5) had a satisfactory debut. Scace wins 25% (42% ITM) with 2TS at Tampa. Adds L1. Cope With Three (6) just hung in last with best fig in today’s field. Smock wins 50% (67% ITM) with No Change types. Early Again (11) went evenly in last at 5F, had second best figs among today’s starters in two previous races. Exacta Box 5,6,11 and Trifectas 6,11/1,3,7,8/5,6,11

2nd – Contenders Only – Landsdown Street (5) was above par in last and has shown ability to stay close while arguing fast early fractions. Tommy’s Closing (6) was gaining late at 6F in second try. Appears likely to improve on the stretchout. Despite best fig among today’s starters, sucker tendencies keep low % trainer Charles Fontana’s Call On Joshua (7) out of the winner’s circle. Exacta Box 5,6 and Trifectas 5,6/3,7/3,5,6,7

3rd – Contenders Only – Make My Day (6) was much the best in above par maiden victory. Trainer Ed Williams wins 40% (80% ITM) rightback and 31% (69% ITM) going up in class at Tampa. Hard to argue with those stats. Clearly the key horse in my Exacta Key Box 6/2,5 and Trifectas 2,5,6/1,3,8/2,5,6

4th – Contenders Only – A wide open race with nothing but question marks. Has Gatis corrected the problem with Meredith (1)? Can Zeeva (2) win a par 56 race after putting up a 35 in last? Is a Dual Diagnosis (6) needed for both the 1 and the 6? Can She’s Got Bling (10) win going 8.5F for the first time. Will Winterello (11) go? DD Wheel All/5

5th – Contenders Only - Screening Room (5) may or may not be challenged for the early lead, but if she is, she prevails. Will change running style if circumstances dictate and Centeno asks. Montalcino (10) has been close in every start this season. McBride is 60% ITM with the Route-to-Sprint in last two seasons at Tampa. Soaring Storm (11) was above par first time over. Exacta Key Box 5/10,11 and Trifectas 5/1,10,11/1,10,11

6th – Contenders Only – Mr. George’s Dreams (2) had the best fig in the field in last, two weeks ago, and checked into the first turn in that one. Gets the nod on current form. Win (2), Saver Exactas 5,8/2 and Trifectas 2/4,12/5,8

7th – Contenders Only – Hallelujah (11) had a satisfactory final fraction in a winning effort in last at *8.5F. Has the best late kick in a race that’s likely to be hotly contested on the front end throughout. Smock won 18% of the time on the grass in the last two seasons. Leading turf trainer Ziadie has Gaara (7) but goes to Andrew Ramgeet who is 3-103 on the grass in 2008-2009.Win (11) and Trifectas 9,11,12/1,10/1,9,10,11,12

8th – Contenders Only – Premier Roma (6) was above par in debut and had lightning fast work six days ago. Only the firsters can upset. Win (6) and Saver Exactas 2,7,10/6

9th – Contenders Only – Exacta Box 1,4,7 and Trifectas 1,4,7/2,6/1,4,7

10th – Contenders Only – Exacta Key Box 1,5,9 and Trifectas 3,4,12/1,5,9/1,5,9

God luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

10 comments:

Anonymous said...

I had the same exacta combination in the second race. The 2 was stuck on that bad rail and stopped midway raround the turn.

Anonymous said...

How bad could the rail have been when the Behrens' horse that won in third saved ground throughout to win going away?

John J Barile said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
John J Barile said...

Nobody said the rail was bad (even though I think it is).

PP's 1 & 2 have won less than their fair share of races for the past four or five weeks. This is indisputable.

Behrens' horse in the third dropped over in the backstretch from PP6.

Brisnet argues that the bias has been with the outside posts all season and with the middle in the past week. I agree.

CJ's Whatsinaname's effort in last should be looked at in this context and attenuated and appreciated next time out.

slihawk said...

I'll answer one of your questions in the 4th.... Chris hasn't figured out her problems.

Great site John

John J Barile said...

Johhny B loves feedback.
Thnaks for that Slihawk.
JB

Anonymous said...

2nd Comment

"The 2 was stuck on that bad rail and stopped midway raround the turn." on March 8, 2009 8:00 PM

Oh by the way; what does "attenuated" mean?

John J Barile said...

Thanks for the comment.
All I am trying to say is that if you believe that CJ's Whatsinaname benefited from the ground saving trip (on the rail), then you must diminsh the value of that effort next time out.
JB

John J Barile said...

P.S. I don't believe that Victory at Midway stopping in the 2nd had anything to do with a bias. The horse just stopped. It happens...
JB

Anonymous said...

I will admit my 2 horse stopped so badly that the rail cannot be the only reason. I am convinced of a middle/outside bias, however, and do not want to see any horse with my money on it saving ground on the rail.