IT'S FREE PLAY WEDNESDAY - April 23rd
I must admit to being focused on Friday’s card this morning
and not this one. There’s the conspiring duo with the same surname structure (I
accidentally stumbled upon recently) and a promising UCE from the 2022 Kentucky
Derby winner’s barn and they both have me champing at the bit.
So it goes…
1st - Cloud Storage (3) had to hesitate for a
moment in the stretch when drifters impinged but got going again late She made
a protracted middle move passing four but was 6 wide entering. A better trip
gives the classiest in this field an edge today. Feliciano is 5 for 6 ITM with UCEs.
Last on the dirt at 8.5F went +4 Early.
Marin returns to try to seal the deal today.
DDs 3/1,3,7 and Saver Trifectas All/3/All (30 bets)
2nd – Avila is 28 & 55 in F3W and he’s 62
& 84 on the Plain RB when the favorite.
Last Wednesday, Kevin singled a runner from Fernando Abreu
and it won going away. Today, he slips one in with Simone as surrogate. At GP
Abreu is 50% ITM with this type with a healthy $5600 EPS. Thought (3) won a 7F
event here last winter with Quirins that were +3,+5 better than today’s par.
Mr. Bennett was 17 for 26 ITM with 8 Wins in F3W last
season and he’s 0-6 this year. Camacho would like to help him rectify the situation
while helping his own cause.
Exacta Key Box 1/3,7
3rd – Trifectas 1,5,10/1,2,5,9,10/1,2,5,9,10 (36
bets)
4th – Trifectas 7,10/6,8,9/6,7,8,9,10 (18 bets)
5th – Wilson outperforms with the RtS and Maldonado
sticks after showing par speed early in last two but PP11 hurt chances (IV
0.46).
Trifectas 2,4/1,2,4,6,7,11/2,4,11 (16 bets)
6th - Gelo is 24 & 54 with Non-shipping L1-3s.
Granted Success (8) should be ready.
Yanez’s Fenwick (10) went better than par in last and
shortens up with Camacho in the saddle today.
Aguayo is 20 & 60 in F3W and Joseph Jr. is one of the
best trainer’s to claim from. Outside PP hurts chances again.
A promising runner that is sidelined for 18 months and
returns at rock bottom is a bad betting proposition, win or lose.
Pick 4 - 2,8,10/3,10/8/1,6 (12 bets)
Trifectas 2,8,10/1,6,9,12/2,8,10,12 (33 bets)
7th – A 10K claimer on the grass begs us to look
for that trainer who has a 16K claimer but needs a win and hopes for a weak(er)
field in this infrequently offered condition and those would be the 3 & 10.
Pick 3 - 3,10/8/7,8,9 if alive after Leg 1 of the P4
8th – Simone is 60% Win with the FBK + 1OC. When the favorite, he’s 81% ITM with this
scenario.
Saver Trifectas 2,3,4,5,11/8/2,3,4,5,11 (20 bets) if alive
after the 7th to cover
9th – See Rs 6 & 7
******
April 9th
You can get 50% off your 25-26 susbcription until the first Saturday in May. Email me at tamselections@gmail.com
I want to be the 1st to congratulate Marin on Leading Rider honors. With only 14 race days remaining (and with Camacho without mounts on Wednesday) Samy would need to win two for every race that Samuel wins in order to unseat him. Marin is 23% Win on the dirt to Camacho’s 19% and he won 43% when the favorite to Camacho’s 37%. Congratulations!
Unless the board sends us a gift, it looks like a beer money (less than $100 through the window) Wednesday. So it goes…
1st – Simone is 20 & 50 with Plain FBKs, 20 & 47 with Dropdowns and 67% ITM with RtSs. Vingativa hit the board in 3 of 4 sprints last winter and has won an OST (in other words, a TtoD). Batista is the reigning leader from the chute.
Owner Wendy L. Brown is 1 for the last 51. That must get her wondering if the grass might be greener elsewhere.
$5 DDs 7/4,7 ($10) and $0.50 Saver Trifectas All/7/3,4,5 (15 bets)($7.50)
2nd – Simone is 20 & 47 with Dropdowns, 14 & 58 with Shortenups and 20 & 60 with 2PTBs. Awesome Slew is a leading Southeast Sire in 2024-2025. Marin is up and that means more bang for the buck in dirt sprints. Last went -2,-1.
Scooter Davis is 42 & 65 with his angle.
Arriagada won 6 in the past two weeks and was no worse than 4th in all but 3 of last 17 in the same period. His piece went one over par in January win.
$0.50 Trifectas 2,4,6,7/4,7/2,6,4,7 (12 bets)($6)
3rd – PP1 remains only 2-27 in these dirt dashes, but surprisingly that makes for a better than expected IV of 0.92.
Delacour is 77% ITM with the 2L1-3 + Dropdown move and he has three 25% Win singles here. Care to build a wager around that?
The 1 & 5 have shown that they are capable of racing forwardly and that’s how 92% of these dashes are won.
$20 Weighted Exacta Key Box 2/1,5
$0.50 Saver Trifectas 1,2,5/4,7/1,2,5 (12 bets)($6)
4th – A six horse (or even less) field on the grass has me ALL in.
Weighted DDs All/7
5th – Ken Tohill has been an enigma. I looked at Arnett switching to Tohill versus going off Tohill and here is what I found interesting. It happened 41 times and looking at finishes 4th or better, Arnett was 46% when switching to Tohill versus only 17% when switching off Tohill.
With that said, I can’t put Its Pizza Time (3) on top.
Rivelli is 36% Win with 1OCs here and Lou Man (7) went -1,+2 last time out. Rivelli is 4 for 7 ITM with 2 Wins with Pablo Morales up in L3T.
$5 Trifectas 6,7/6,7/2 and $1 Superfectas 6,7/6,7/1,3/1,2,3 (8 bets)($8)
6th – Casse is 22 & 48 with DtoTs. Dr. No is Casse’s preferred rider, but he was up for Chad Brown in English Law’s only Tampa start. Bastardo sticks with KOC’s piece as unlikely as it looks here, but he’s cashed all those checks. Maybe Casse is sending Dr. No a message and was off him anyway (in a tit for tat thing).
Exacta Key Box 6/4,5,7
7th – KOC is 71% ITM with the TtoD + RtS while Sacco is 50% ITM with same. They both went a few clicks over par on March 2nd.
$0.50 Trifectas 1,2,4,5,7,8/1,2,7/1,2,7 (24 bets)($12)
8th – Bennett/Marin. Why the hell not? Endless Reign (1) went +6,-1 in last and +19,+5 in previous on the grass. Camacho and Dr. No are off here. If the Portable Rail moves to 30 feet, that changes the picture for PP1 which has an IV of 0.65 in L5T in that situation.
$20 Conditional Win 1 for 2-1 to 5-2
Up to $99.50 total wagers today
****************************
March 26th
This past weekend (Fri, Sat & Sun) we had a fair amount of action and ended it down about $110. Last week, there were more big prices than you can count on one hand. It’s a miracle anyone survived that kind of carpet bombing. Kevin should be kinder to himself.
So it goes…
1st – It’s a good strategy to try to be live to a big Pick 3 after the early DD is over, but only some cards lend themselves to that kind of play. This one doesn’t appear to be one of them, but ya never know.
$3 Saver DDs 1,4/6,7 ($12)
$1.50 Pick 3 - 2,3,5-9/4,9/5 (14 bets)($21)
2nd – Rodriguez is 14 (3-0-3) with his angle and KOC with a UCE (32 & 70) has a 47 & 70 angle with the (9): the Non-layoff S + Dropdown (but only if you’ll agree to call it that. Based on 43 tries over 14 years, it’s fair to say that I considered most of this type to be Dropdowns before I created the CC NOS angle several years ago.
See R1
3rd – Potts is normally not trying off the long layoff, but Shadow Factor (5) was ready, applying the only early pressure on the leader and staying on to finish with a 3 over par effort that was obviously better than it appeared by looking at the PPs. When trainers buck their own patterns, you gotta take notice.
$50 Weighted DDs 5/1,3,9
$3 Pick 3 - 5/1,3,9/5,7 (6 bets)($18)
4th – Soundtrack’s (1) last over FAST went +9,+2. An even money runner broke the losing streak for PP1 in dashes on Sunday. This one could do the same. Union Rags has sired 16% Winners at the last 5 meetings.
Exacta Box 1/3,9
5th – Bennett and Arnett both have 7.4% angles.
Sacco is 68 & 84 when the favorite on the Dropdown.
Conditional $50 Weighted DDs 3-8/5,10 (12 bets) if the 5 is not the top choice in R5, otherwise
$5 Pick 3 - 5/5,10/2,6,7 (6 bets) ($30)
$2 Pick 3 - 7/5,10/2,6,7 (6 bets) ($12)
6th – Sacco is 60 and 90 when the favorite with StRs.
Torres is 75% ITM with UCEs but hasn’t been able to get to the circle with either of them and that seems like plain old bad luck.
Distorted Humor has 16% Winners here for a decade and Tony Small has a chunk of them.
$0.50 - Pick 4 - 5,10/1-8/1/2,6,7 ($24)
7th – See R6
8th – Arriagada is 33 & 70 with CC NOSs and 20 & 50 with the RB + FBK.
$1 Trifectas All/1/4,7,8 (21 bets)($21) if alive in the Pick 4
9th – Trifectas 2,6,7/3,5/2,6,7 (12 bets)
***********************
March 19th
We are up 30% at the meeting. Email tamselections@gmail.com to subscribe for the remainder of this meeting and 25-26. So it goes….
1st – I’m going with the favorite in the opener.
PP1 remains best at 15.53% Win (excluding the dashes) but Munoz is only 4% Win
with Shippers. Simone is only 1-9 with 2OCs at the meeting and he is 0-5 with
No Changes.
Pick 3 - Favorite/3/4 (1 bet)
2nd – Reed has another UCE here. The last one
was a “meeting maker”. Eric is 39 & 66 with UCEs with 27% both ITM
and 11 of 41 bombs. Unfortunately, this one (well both) figure and we have such
a small field. I’m hoping half of it scratches.
Saver Trifectas All/2,3/2,3 (8 bets)
3rd – Scooter Davis had the same angle in last
and tanked and he doesn’t play games. Looks like a dud despite 41% Win angle.
Contessa is 1-12 with FBKs at the meeting.
Simone is only 8% Win with UCEs. We can hope that
Funkenstein (2) scratches. The other piece, Makizan (4), has a 25 & 57
angle: 2OC + FBK. Just missed in last with better than par effort. Sire Khozan
has 13 winners at the meeting.
Saver Trifectas 3,5,6/4/3,5,6 (6 bets) if alive in the Pick
3
4th – Granitz is 64% ITM with the RtS +
Dropdown.
Jr. Sergio (5) & Pico Plat (8) went better than par
recently. They both have 10% Win angles.
Exacta Key Box 1/5,8
5th – Brown is 35 & 73 with both of these and
he’s 43 & 80 when two go. Clement is 20 & 45 with FTTs and 45 & 85
with UCEs.
Ryan could put them all away with Stillthinkingofyou (9). The
filly went +13,+3 in last and Derek is 54 & 76 on the Shortenup when the
favorite.
Exacta Box 8,9 and Trifectas 8,9/1,3,6,7/8,9 (8 bets)
6th – Styner (7) won here in 2022 as a 4YO with
a -3,-2 below today’s par. He comes “by way of Bayonne” as my high
school football coach used to say, making a layover at Pen where he made a +5
above the bullet par 5F work 12 days ago enroute from Finger Lakes, where the
Englehart boys are dynastic. Jeffrey is 20 & 49 with Layoffs on the Dirt
there.
Hari (1) went better than par in last two, but switches to
(one for the crowd, one for me) Dr. No today.
$50 Weighted DDs 3,7/3 and
$3 Pick 4 – 3,7/3/2/4,8,10 (6 bets)($18)
$2.50 Saver Pick 3 – 1,4/3,4,5,9,10/2 (10 bets)($25)
7th – Riga is 29 & 70 with Non-shipping
Dropdowns.
See R6
8th – Jorge Delgado’s Read On (2) went +9,+2 in
last and he is 50 & 92 when the favorite with this multiple angle.
All bets would be off if Casse’s piece is the top choice
with Dr. No up, but all you can do is sell your ticket if you’re still alive…
See R6
9th – Exacta Box 4,8,10
******************
March 12th
On Sunday, Cascallares came thru in R10, but Dr. No was 5th
as the 2nd choice. He is utterly unreliable and he has no mounts
today, automatically improving our chances for success.
Just an accounting note: On Saturday, Dither DNMC and a
couple of unconsidered scratches reduced the setback to $113.50 that day.
So it goes…
1st – Let’s say it won’t be one of the geriatric
runners or 1-48 lifetime, Colleen Ashmore or Bowersock, 3 for 48 with L4-8s.
Arriagada outperforms with this angle and Marin can just
taste Leading Rider at the Meeting honors. He was 10 of 17 ITM last
weekend with two more winners. On the other hand, nobody has more winners with
1st OC types than Juan and this one gave way and missed badly.
Clark has a 23 & 61 angle, and Ritabook, an APD at 7F
in the past, could zip on this three-level class drop.
I once dated a woman named Sandy Beach. If her name was
Misty Gale (6), I might have married her.
Exacta Key Box 7/6,8,9 (6 bets)
2nd – Yanez is 18 & 47 with this angle but
won only 2 of 21 with FBKs in 24-25 with 9 ITM.
Potts is 50% ITM with the TtoD + Shortenup move and 17% Win
with the TtoD + Class Change NOS angle.
Wilson is 0-33 with StRs.
Trifectas 3,6/1,4,8/3,6 (6 bets)
3rd – Mr. Bennett is a grinder but every now and
then a good one comes along. Chrome Ghost (3) went one better than today’s par
in last and the rest are either in over their heads or haven’t shown much
recently. Gerry is 28.5% Win with the Non-shipping L1-3 + RB.
Mohs (4) has been with McBurney forever. The 7YO was 2nd
at 6F in maiden debut at Monmouth, and another time was 2nd with a
big fig in an OST at 9F. There’s no reason to think he won’t go well on the
dirt today.
$50 Weighted Exacta Box 3,4
$3 Pick 3 – 3,4/7/2,6,7 (6 bets) ($18)
4th – Throw away the book for Guciardo. This is
her year. Historically, she is 5% Win with this angle but this year is 21 &
63. Last went +5,+4 better than par and Ronic (7) drops two levels today.
Torres is 1 for 19 with UCEs.
Win 7
5th – In last, Journeyman (2) was beaten by
Terranova’s NYRA shipper with 200K from just 12 starts and Casse’s NGS winner
with $350K in earnings. Wright is 36 & 50 with Plain Dropdowns.
McBurney is 26 & 74 with UCEs and he looks for that
elusive 2nd win at the meeting. See if he’s dressed to have his
picture taken, then lay it in.
Exacta Box 2,6,7
6th – This poor guy Waltke Jr. loses his only
winner in painful baptism into the tough business of becoming a thoroughbred
trainer after Old Town Road improved in last four starts (TEs 183, 189, 190
& 194). There could be room for further improvement as Carmicheal tries to
make it 2 for 2 with 1st OCs.
Trifectas 2,7/3,4,8/2,7
$2.50 Pick 4 – 2,7/8/6/3,9 (4 bets)($10)
$1 Pick 4 – 2,7/8/6/2,4,6 (6 bets)($6)
7th – JH Delgado has a 24 & 50 angle that
rises to 45% Win with favoritism.
Win 8 and Trifectas 8/2,4/2,4 (2 bets)
8th – Country Economics (6), the serial bomber
that’s gone straight, was closest to par in two of last three and gets the nod.
Win 6
9th – Rodriguez and Vinson have 24% Win angles.
Trifectas 3,9/2,4,6/3,9 (6 bets)
****
March 5th
Last week I bet $292 and collected $629.80. I'm presently up 31% on $6128 in wagers. So it goes…
I note that PPs 1-4 on the dirt have an IV of 1.42 in the last 26 races.
1st - Dini appears to be best with two better than par efforts in row and a 54 & 76 angle if the favorite and goes from PP1, Skyloft was eased through the final 1/16 after dueling with four in a line early. Dini is only 29% Win with Plain Favorites.
The veteran McPherson is 13% Win in the PE. Arnett has a 31 & 56 angle. Bennett has a 23 & 53 angle and Rice runners that have shown anything, often wake up.
DD 1/4,8
2nd – Woods Hole (4) an APD, was par in last and has evolved into a horse for the course, but Dimmett is 0-9 with his angle. Crichton is soft with RBs, while Richards outperforms with his angle.
Bennett is surrogate for Carlos David and he is 3 (1-2-0) with this angle and Marin had four baggers on both Saturday and Sunday.
Exacta Box 4,8
3rd – Can’t wait to hear the talking heads elaborate on the virtues of these…
Exacta Box 2,8,9
4th – Marin is up for Bennett. Sa Sa Sa (6) will get the bugs out and have another big win (maiden win went +8,+2)
Rondon-Mora has a 25 & 65 angle in 20 tries.
Trifecta Box 6,8,9,10
5th – Pass
6th – Avila’s piece went, -9,-6 & -8 in last three but Juan is 64 & 88 if he favorite here, but that seems unlikely.
Bennett/Averill are having a typical (winning) meeting. Gerry is 2 of 14 with 1OCs in Dirt Routes in L5T but runners claimed from Rice have won 2 of 5 with no duds.
Trifecta Box 2,3,4,8
Pick 3 – 2,3,4,8/1,3,6/3,7 (24 bets)
7th – Arnett is 32 & 58 with the L1-3 + 2S, while Dini is 18 & 76 with the 2L4-8 + 2S and Sacco is 35 & 80 with UC that are < 5-1.
Saver Pick 3 - 2,8,9/3,7/2,4,7,8 (24 bets)
8th – Trifectas 3,7/1,2,8/3,7 (6 bets)
9th – Trifecta Box 2,4,7,8
*****
Feb. 26th
On Sunday, my $50 Weighted Exacta Box returned $2841 in the
10th with the help of a 1 to 5 shot that tanked. A winning bottom
line is now assured for the 24-25 meeting. Subscribe to get all the action, $100
(that’s 50% off for my Blogspot readers) for the remainder of the current meeting and
next season (2025-2026). Email me at tampapicks@gmail.com. So
it goes….
1st – The 1 and the 3 went on the same day and
the 3 went 5 clicks better. McGaughey is 46% Win with this RB angle in 24
tries. Dini is 50% ITM with TtoDs but he has no angle.
Win 3 Exacta 3/1
$7 Place Parlay – 3/3/7/10/5,8
$10 Show Parlay – 3/3/7/10/5,8
2nd – Arriagada has a SOFT WEAKNESS angle here:
13% Win with The L1-3 + 1OC.
Oops Haha (8) was the inexplicable beaten favorite in last.
It appears she may like to be in the middle of things rather than on the
fringe. In last, the #12 rushed up to be up close early, while the others
surrounding Oops Haha remained in their own tier. In the August 11th
race at Monmouth, she was the farthest on the outside and lost interest. Just
sayin’…
Cordero is 0-15 in dirt routes and Rarick is 4 for 60 with
Non-shipping 2L1-3s.
The rest have made par and the All button might be right
here, but Mia’s Angel’s (3) Win was the most recent, there were two closers on
the dirt on Sunday and her win was at today’s distance.
Win 3
3rd – Carrasco Jr. outperforms with his two
singles and he is 38 & 54 if the favorite in this scenario. Last two have
been just click over par and Ghost Stalker (7) has a clean record in Oldsmar.
Exactas 7/3,4 and Trifectas 7/2/3,4 (2 bets)
Saver Pick 3 – 7/2,3,4/5,8 (6 bets)
4th – Stonehedge was 11 (3-2-1) last season and
is 0-3 this year. Looks for a win here. Cajun Breeze has 15% Winners here
including four in dirt sprints at the current meeting. KOC is 25% Win with FTSs
and she has a +$0.52 ROI with this type forever.
$5 DDs 10/5,8
5th – Mr. Deaton appears almost as rarely as Halley’s
Comet. OK, not that rarely, but he averages only 23 starts a year for the
past 47 years and in several years has had only 1 or 2. I’ve been following him
for 12 years and he is 3 for 6 ITM at $18-1 here with today’s angle and has two
going. Deaton is 19 & 57 here on the grass over the years
Carrasco Jr. has a 1 for 31 angle.
$0.50 Trifectas All/5,8/2,3 (32 bets)($16)
6th – Motivo (1) went better than par in last
two in the SLOP and he was 2nd in maiden debut here at 6.5F and made
today’s par at Laurel at 6F. This 5YO has been gently used and deserves your
support here.
$25 Win 1
$0.50 Pick 4 – 1/3,4,5,9/1,4,5/1,2,5 (36 bets)($18)
$4 Saver Exacta 8/1 to cover
7th – Trifecta Box 3,4,5,9
8th – Scooter Davis is 20 (8-3-2) with his angle
and Ellebracht is 12 (3-2-0) with his.
Trifectas 1,4,5/2,6,7,9/1,4,5 (24 bets)
9th – Saver Trifectas 4,10/1,2,5/1,2,4,5,10
(18 bets) if alive in the Pick 4 to cover
Mr. Pick Four's Selections
******
Wednesday, February 19th
I always say it all comes down to which ones you had and
which ones you didn’t, because most of us can’t watch or bet every race, every
day. But on Sunday, a different twist presented itself, and that was the one which
didn’t go (at all). I was hanging my hopes on that conspiracy in R7
but it will have to wait for another day (if there is one). I told you they
were sending me to purgatory for my past blunders, but I didn’t think the whole
operation would be blacked out just 30 minutes before my big play. So it goes…
1st – Jess’s Brew (6) is a half-sister to Chem
Major, winner of 7 here at Tampa. Jess was par in last two and Cudworth is 10%
Win with this angle.
Mr. McPherson is a 50-year veteran and he is still 13% Win
with a par AEPS in the PE. I can’t argue with that kind of staying power.
However, Gallardo is only 11% win when up for non-profiled/non-top 100
conditioners.
Camacho has 1st mount in 11 days. This one looks
more like a tighten up mount for Samy than a real contender.
Dobber has one of his two most often tested angles here. He
is 24% ITM with this type at $11.50-1.
$5 Trifecta 6/2/9
$25 DD 6/4
2nd – The Guciardo Express has taken a 12-day
hiatus. Has it run out of gas or did it just make a pit stop? This condition
hasn’t been offered in a race from the chute since Awesome Empress’s (4) win.
She was entered as an N1X on Feb. 2nd at 7F but got spooked and
scratched (along with Bennett’s Pretty’n Awesome). Looks like Kathy may have
been waiting for this one. This mare is by 3rd Crop Leader Awesome
Slew. Made today’s par in last.
Wilson has 44% ITM angle which balloons to 72% ITM if the
favorite.
Mr. Bennett is always a threat with long layoffs (30 &
57) and half of Camacho’s wins come when up for one of the top six leading
trainers.
Just Mercy (1) makes a sideways move here. Was a click
below par two back. Could strike for 13 & 41 conditioner Agostini.
Arnett presents with an emerging WEAKNESS angle: presently
0-19 with the L1-3 + 1OC (with only 4 ITM).
If favoritism is to the 5, then Exacta Box 4,5 otherwise
Trifectas 4,6/1,3,4,5,6/1,3,4,5,6 (24 bets)
3rd – Mr. Bennett gets the SOLITARY bump here
(IV 1.53). Camacho is up (see my R2 comment). Bennett is 2nd only to
KOC with FTSs: 22 & 46. It’s a good combination of factors, win or lose. On
the other hand, Gerry doesn’t usually enter them at rock bottom in their first
try.
Trifecta Box 3,5,7,9
4th – A nice mix of Steady Eddies and
Bombardiers makes for a speculative play in this one.
Ochoa is lighting up the board like a Christmas tree in
2025 with 19 of 32 ITM and 6 Wins. It’s clearly his best year ever. I featured
Money Song (2) for a Win during the pandemic attaching this SoFi video to my
comments:
Do My Money Dance | SoFi Commercial
Since then, the 7YO is 19 (4-3-2) in Oldsmar. Call me
nostalgic, but that dancer really lifted my spirits during those dark days.
Ochoa has a 44% ITM angle in 184 tries at $14-1 odds.
March’s ethereal presence confounds. He is somehow 58% ITM
with this angle in 26 tries in L5T. Really?
Slippery Scooter Davis has a 42 & 74 angle here, while
Yanez is 18 & 48 with his. Davis is only 1-7 with Layoffs and 1-5 when the
favorite in this scenario, so maybe last outcome was to be expected.
JH Delgado is now 27 & 63 with the L1-3 + 1OC.
Cahill had 16% Bombs last year but has none this season.
Was that a flash in the pan or is he just in between bomb cycles. His only win
was on Opening Day.
$75 Weighted Exactas 6,7,8/2
$3 Saver Pick 3 - 2,9,11/4,8,10/1 (9 bets)($27)
5th – Dini is only 19% Win with UCEs (that’s two
chances to win with one) and he’s a sub-par 29.5% Win when the favorite in this
scenario.
Exacta Box 4,8,10
6th – Bennett’s Madam Mitole (1) went +6,+4 in
maiden win and Gerry has a 24 & 48 angle here. Camacho (see R2 comments, is
up yet again). PP1 is still 17.1% Win (when u back out the 1-19 record in
dashes).
Pick 4 – 1/4/3,5,6,7/All (up to 40 bets)
Saver DDs 2,4/4 to cover
7th – KOC has a big BET AGAINST: 1 for 70 with
the RB + DtoT.
Avila is 50 & 80 on the Rightback when the favorite in
10 tries.
Potts is 49% ITM in 69 tries with the 2L1-3 + Shortenup
angle.
Exacta 4/8 and Trifectas 4/3,5,9/8
8th – Connelly is 27 & 54 with Plain FBKs.
Trifecta Box 3,5,6,7
9th – ON THE TURF - Bennett has a solid BET
AGAINST: 0-25 with the Plain RB + FBK.
Exacta Box 2,3,9
OFF THE TURF – MTOs are good for a piece but underperform
for Win (IV 0.8). This one made par on a GOOD surface going 8.18F.
Bennett is 27 & 68 in OSTs and is still good for a
piece.
All/6,11/6,11 (up to 16 bets)
Mr. Pick Four
****
Feb. 12th
On Super Bowl Sunday, I was unplugged. Among my selections, I mentioned bridge jumping in R8 on Terranova’s Laser Sharp, dropping in class off a NYRA win (versus better). The SOB paid not 1 to 10 as bridge jumpers usually anticipate, but a healthy 1 to 2 for the Show, maybe the easiest money to be made at the meeting. To make matters worse, the Exacta with the 2nd choice on top paid $25.60 for a $1. That’s what I get for taking a day off. So it goes…
1st – Dini has a BET AGAINST here: 3-47 Win with Plain Class Changes, while Simone is 18 & 59 with UCEs. He’s 21% Win with 2OCs dropping in class and 31 & 58 with Plain Dropdowns. All the others have one blemish or another.
Pick 3 - 2,7/4,5/3,9 (8 bets)
2nd – Jorge Delgado is 36 & 82 with UCEs with an amazing 25% both ITM, while Egan is 5 for 10 ITM with 3 Wins when in town for the day. If Rock D’Oro (5) should take the $$$, Delgado is 50 & 81 with this angle.
Padilla is 2 for 65 with Long Layoffs and Potts is only 6% Win with L4-8s.
Trifectas 4,5/1,6/1,4,5,6 (8 bets)
3rd – Dini is 33% Win with Plain FBKs but he is sub-par for win if the top choice in this situation but still 77% ITM. Keep On Rockin (3) was par in last two.
Crichton is 6 of 14 Win with his angle when the top choice in this scenario but Iorio has only 1 Win in the past month.
Barboza Jr.’s piece was beaten by two N3Ls in last. Victor has a 33 & 70 angle but this one leans more toward a class change than a dropdown.
Lusk is 3-144 with his angle, while Barrett is 2-41 Lifetime (and cheapies).
Casique has 1st mount of 2025. He’s 4% lifetime with one lifetime win in Oldsmar.
$15 DD 3/9
$15 Trifecta 3/9/4
$5 Trifecta 3/9/5
and $5 Saver Trifectas 9/3/4,5 ($10)
4th – I’m respecting Avila’s decision to move Hari to the C8 condition off the N3L Win instead of the C5N2Y which would have been the more logical and sensible move. Juan is 64 & 86 when the favorite on the Dropdown. Leon is 10 for 17 ITM with 3 Wins in February.
Conditional $50 Win 9 for 9/5 down to 7/5
Saver DD 9/3
5th – Batista was doing a lot of waiting through the far turn aboard Jamestown (8) in last, but the 5YO left a bad impression once clear through the stretch, however, when one considers that the horse still made par and that it was par in previous also, it then merits a 2nd look for Delacour, who has a 70% ITM angle here.
Pompay is 0-21 here with this angle, but she is the other most logical contender.
Avila’s Gran Yaco (1) never was close to par. Almedina looks for only 2nd lifetime win on the grass.
Exacta Key Box 8/5,7 and Trifectas 5,7,8/3/5,7,8 (6 bets)
6th – JH Delgado is 40 & 60 with 2L1-3 on the dropdown when not the favorite and he’s 31 & 50 with FBKs. PPs 10,11 & 12 are 14% Win this season courtesy of the foot of rain that inundated the track in two days last October. Has the surface been remade or can we expect things to return to normal the further away from that storm that we get.
Win 13 otherwise Trifecta Box 6,7,8,9
$1 Pick 4 – 13/4,8/8/All (20 bets), if 13 is out, then
$1 Pick 4 – 6,7,8,9/4,8/8/1,8,10 (24 bets)
7th – KOC’s SJB Express (8) went +11,+7 in last with a par Final Fraction and Kathy outperforms with her two singles here.
Pompay (4) gets another chance to get off the schneid with this angle (if she didn’t already in R5.
Trifectas 4,8/4,8/2,7 (4 bets)
8th – Style Me Royal (8) went +7,+4 three back, then Centeno appeared to have had instructions not to go for it if Golden Juan was out winging it again in next try. Centeno stuck again and they got a piece on the GOOD surface in last. Gotta figure it’s an all-out effort today for $6250. Bennett has a 27 & 58 angle.
$50 Weighted Exactas 8/3,6
$12 Trifectas 8/5/3,6 ($24)
$2 Superfectas 8/2/3,5,6/3,5,6 (6 bets)($12)
9th – Sillaman is 33% Win and Place with this angle and Dark and Fitzy (8) has been facing the toughest in his class all winter.
See R6
Mister Pick 4's Selections for 02/12/2025
Just can't catch a break ....but, never give up, said my granpop, who got me started in this wonderful game ...only wished I could be at the track, like I
used to be, daily, to relish in the experience and fresh air ....
All Plays $0.50
2) 1, 4, 5*
3) 3, 9
4) 4, 8, 9
5) 3, 8 $18.00
6) 3, 6, 7, 9
7) 2, 4, 8
8) 2, 5
9) 1, 8, 9 $36.00
Best Bet *
*****
Wednesday, February 5th
If they had a $1 Window, that’s where you’d find me all day today. Betting all nine and in for only $84.70. So it goes…
1st – Grey Princess (4) has made par in 7 of last 9. In last, she looked like an Oreo cookie, sandwiched between runners for a full 4 seconds entering the first turn. Whatever their plan was, if it involved a move in the early part of the race, well, better luck next time. Crichton has a 19 & 50% ITM angle here and he’s 37% Win when the favorite. The two leaders are without mounts here and that gives Leon (and Meneses) the 1.23 IV bump.
A serial bomber and an APD try to find their feet.
Arnett is only 3 for 24 Win when off a sharp work and Tohill has not finished ITM in 8 tries.
$1 Exacta Key Box 4/2,5 ($4)
2nd – 14 of the last 17 of these dirt sprints were won from PPs 4 or further out and on a FAST surface, the 6 & 7 have been closest to par recently.
($0.50) Trifectas 6,7/1,3/1,3,6,7 (8 bets)($4)
($0.50) Pick 3 – 6,7/2,8/6,7,8 (12 bets)($6)
3rd – Sacco’s piece did wake up near the bottom and drops today with good intentions. Sacco is 30 & 63 with Dropdowns and 78% ITM when < 7-2.
Campbell’s piece was par for TE in last two and he is 53% ITM with this angle.
Hendrik’s AEPS is 50% below par.
$0.50 Trifectas 2,8/6,7/2,6,7,8 (8 bets)($4)
4th – Ubide’s 7YO is 1 for 44, a comfortable rut indeed, but that’s how some of them earn their keep. Poseidon’s Myth (4) went three better than par in last at $104-1 and Max is 32 of 59 ITM with Plain Shortenups.
Arnett is only 8.6% Win with 1OCs, but 36% of runners claimed from KOC have won in their first 3 tries. Tohill is up again, and this one is off a sharp work too (3-24).
$3 Trifectas 6,7,8/4/5 (3 bets)($9)
$1.50 Trifectas 6,7,8/5/4 (3 bets)($4.50)
$0.30 Superfectas 1,2,3,5/6,7,8/4/6,7,8 (24 bets)($7.20)
5th – $0.50 Saver Pick 3 - 10,11,12/5,9/8,9,12 (18 bets)($9)
6th – Kadar Indy (1) went +2,+3 in first off the long layoff and Kenric (5) is out of the same race, as is Cudworth’s piece. The latter made a +9 EP before running out of gas and shortens up today.
$0.50 Pick 4 - 1,4,7/8,9,12/4,5,7/10 (27 bets)($13.50)
7th – McBurney, a Value Trainer for ITM goes to 6 & 22 Turf rider in the PE, Rosario Montanez. I like the horse’s chances, but not the rider’s.
$0.50 Trifectas 8,12/All/9 (20 bets)($10)
8th – Arriagada presents with a complicated scenario. Bounteous’s (4) last went 0,-2 over a -8,-5, the best effort of the day on Jan. 19th, but Juan is only 1-15 with Non-shipping 2L1-3s in L7T.
Simone’s piece, has a nice clean angle, 36 & 64 with Plain StRs.
The other day, I stumbled upon the stat for Allen Jr., only 6.28% Win when up for other than Bowersock, but Rarick is the exception. They are 16 & 31 when teaming up. Calzone (6) could wake up today.
$0.50 Trifectas 4,5,7/1,2,3,6/4,5,7 (24 bets)($12)
9th – The 1 & 10 are by 3rd Crop Leaders on the Grass but Aranciata (10) went +6,+5 over a -10,-6 Variant, a huge effort and Jorge Delgado has a 50 & 91 angle if the favorite in this race.
Best Bet – Win 10
$1 Trifectas 10/1,8,9/1,8,9 (6 bets)($6)
*********
IT'S FREE PLAY WEDNESDAY - Jan. 29th at Tampa
A tough card. Hats off to Kevin and all you players who try to make multi-race exotics out of this kind. So it goes…
1st – Mazza enters Cruising Derek (1) in the first C25 N2L for older horses at the meeting and that says a lot about what he thinks of this 5YO with only 1 Win. I’ll give him a chance…
$25 Win 1
$25 DD 1/1
2nd – Bris helps us out by not having pars for this race, but the Quirins are 90-90 and Rice’s piece maiden made a 93 in maiden win on Opening Day and a 96-94 in the Sandpiper. The 3 & 6 failed to make par in their attempts.
Rivelli is 86% ITM if the top choice and he’s 24 & 52 on the Rightback but Dr. No giveth and Dr. No taketh away. They are 4 for 8 ITM with only 2 Wins in L5T.
Sometimes, we try to prove one thing but accidentally prove another instead. I looked at Allen Jr.’s record when up for Bowersock anticipating revealing their game playing and found out instead that he is only 6.3 & 28 when up for others going back years. That is what we call a nugget.
$25 Win 1 and Saver Exacta 5/1 if alive in the DD to cover
3rd – Manchan’s Electric Runner (5) was up close to the final 100 yards after a hand ride by Hess at 60-1 in which they were boxed in late. Switches to Ferrer today. If that was Rosemary Jr. in the irons they would have taken it down. Does Manchan take another bite at the apple or reset the clock to bomb on another day? They may not have a chance today. On the 15th, this one went -18,-13, while the other went -8,+1. Our eyes can deceive us…
There is no par for Float On By’s (1) last, but projecting, Delacour’s piece went -4,-4 while fading late.
Trifecta Box 1,4,5,9
4th – Arriagada get the SOLITARY bump here (IV 1.53) and is 45% & 77 if the top choice under these circumstances.
Grand Daniel (1) had no business being in that SALW8 after DQ win in first try. Next went in the SLOP. Daniel is still is in over his head, but Orantes may just have been looking for a spot on the FBK after no C8 N3Ls at the route have been offered since.
May play this one, depending on the odds of the 1. Watch for a late email.
$12 Trifectas 8/4,5/1 ($24)
$6 Trifectas 4,5/1,8/1,8 ($24)
Saver Exacta Box 1,8 to cover
5th – Trifecta Box 4,5,7,8
6th – KOC will take the money, but without justification.
Dobber went par in last but he is 0-61 with FBKs.
Tohill has not hit the board in 4 tries. A rider change might get me interested in Arnett’s 2L4-8 (17 & 35).
PASS
7th – Cascallares has 5 bomb angles going with Tourist Style (3), but that one comes out of the same race as Manchan’s Electric Runner in R3.
Exacta Key Box 4/2,5 and Trifectas 2,4,5/3,7/2,4,5 (12 bets)
8th - KOC is now 60% Win when the favorite on the Rightback, while Arriagada is 58% Win with same and Juan is also 38 & 70 with Plain RtSs.
DDs 5,8/9
9th – Dr. No is 12 & 26 in L8T when up for KOC/Windylea making for a good BET AGAINST here.
Dini is 52% ITM with the StR + FTT move and is 12 for 26 ITM with the 7F to T Mi move specifically and at good odds. Gets a piece.
Saver Trifectas 2,4,8,12,13/9/2,3,4,8,12,13 (up to 25 bets)
**********
Wednesday, Jan. 22nd
The late money after the bell is the bane of the horse racing gambler. All I can say is thank God it cuts both ways. In the 2nd on Sunday, Wheelingndealing (my top choice) went from 9/2 to 5/2 after the gate opened and in the 8th on Saturday, Bennett’s Prettyn’ Awesome (with a huge angle when the favorite) went from 3-1 to the 9/5 favorite after the bell and finished 3rd.
I've been daydreaming lately about how to fix this problem and I have an idea. There should be two pools. For ITW players, you could choose the price at one minute to post or the final price from 1 minute to post to wherever the prices finally settle once the 2nd pool (including the late money that is added in after the bell) are calculated. At 1MTP the ITW betting would cease and a cleared digital toteboard would replace the earlier one to accommodate only the late bets. On site players would always get what we would call the 1MTP to post price, which in actuality, would be the odds when the gate opens (plus those final crumbs that come in when the last on track bets are made). The on site bets made in the final minute would be de minimis and folks at the track would not even see the 2nd pool action.
You're laughing? Well I got the goddamn red light cameras eliminated in my county after many years of operation, so stop laughing and start taking action.
So it goes…
1st – OFF THE TURF – The mere action of Bennett going on the dirt and not the turf increases his strike rate by 64%. Gerry has a 13 (2-3-2) angle and is Neutral in OSTs.
Lopez has a 10 & 32 angle and has won on the dirt.
Bowersock was close to par in 8.18F Win, however she has a Neutral rating and is 0-2 with 1OC’s in Dirt Routes.
Air Force Blue was a turf specialist across the pond and I suspect his son will scratch but Clement is 2 for 3 ITM in OSTs and Sacco is 68% Win when the favorite in this spot.
Win 6
2nd – Mia’s Angel (6) beat most of these while making the best Quirin in the field. VanWinkle is 11 of 22 ITM with 2 Wins with today’s angle and it just may be good enough.
Win 6
3rd – Rodriguez is 4 for 7 ITM at $7.60-1 and he’s 30 & 60 with TtoDs and has his first of the meeting here. Darien is also almost 50% Win when the favorite in this situation.
Thank the Academy (6) was close to par in last three, but these races are won by fillies and mares that are < 1BL at the 2nd Call.
$15 DD 5/2
4th – Calendula (5) bombed as a Layoff + Shipper on a GOOD TRACK for Mendieta last year here. Look at that sharp work just a week ago.
Wright is 15 of 30 ITM with 9 Wins with the L1-3 + Dropdown and he has an average Win price of $6.50-1 in L2T.
$30 Weighted Exacta Box 2,5
$5 Trifectas 2/3,4,6,7/5 (4 bets)($20)
$2.50 Trifectas 5/3,4,6,7/2 (4 bets) ($10)
5th – OFF THE TURF – Rigattieri is 30 & 80 is OSTs and 23 & 55 with Plain Stretchouts.
E.M.’s Treasuregirl’s (3) numbers have declined in 3 consecutive starts from 98 to 94 to 90. Today’s OST par is 97-96. I note that she has had a Win at 8.18F in an OST.
Tiki Bar (7) also has a Win at 8.18F in an OST.
$25 DD 2/5 and Exactas 5,7/2 to cover
6th – Jorge Delgado has a lot going on here. He’s 40% Win with the Non-layoff Dropdown angle, 38% Win with PTBs when the favorite and 8 for 8 ITM with 2 Wins with PTBs on the Dropdown. The Sioux (5) were known for their strong warrior culture. Let’s hope this colt was named with that thought in mind.
On an OFF TRACK Jorge Delgado must have strong action, say shorter than the ML of 2-1
$50 Weighted Exacta Key Box 5/4,8 and
$5 Trifectas 5/3/4,8 (2 bets)($10)
$5 Pick 4 – 5/5/2/4,6 (2 bets)($10)
7th – Campbell presents with competing angles. He’s 0-13 with Non-shipping 2L1-3s and 31 & 62 with the Dropdown + Shortenup. The Weakest Link theory usually prevails.
Arnett is 36 & 64 with the 2L1-3 + Shortenup and 53 & 75 with 2L1-3s when the favorite. Tohill’s plane hasn’t gotten off the ground. Is Arnett just jerking us?
Exacta Key Box 5/3,6 and Trifectas 3,5,6/4,8/3,5,6 (12 bets)
8th – Delgado is 36 & 82 with UCEs with amazing 25% strike rate with both runners. Last year’s Leading Sire Not This Time had 30% Winners and is 0-14 at the current meeting. He’s still #10 in North America. Pacific Rose (2) has a 50 & 79 angle and Jorge is 3 for 4 ITM with Gil up.
Exacta Key Box 2/1,3,5
9th – Style Me Royal (4) went +5,+3 two back and Mr. Bennett has a 47% Win angle here (and tries it for the first time at the meeting).
Arriagada is 30 & 61 with StRs and 20 & 59 in 2OCs.
Exacta Box 4,6 and Saver Trifectas 4,6/1/4,6 (2 bets)
****
Wednesday, Jan. 15th
On Sunday, Bunny Hop missed the Win by a length at 15-1. Right horse, wrong bet. The $0.50 trifecta paid $435 (ouch)! So it goes…
1st – Dini is 50% ITM with TtoDs and he is 6 for 14 ITM with 3 Wins with Castanon up.
KOC is 47% ITM with TtoDs and she is 6 for 11 ITM with 3 Wins with Ferrer up.
Trifectas 1,3,4,9/5,6/1,3,4,9 (24 bets)
2nd – Quirky shit happens. PPs 7-12, historically with an IV of 0.46 in these dashes, have won 6 of 10 at the current meeting. The law of large numbers says no, and so do I.
Fisher is 5 for 11 with 3 Win with No Change types.
Rodriguez is 27 & 49 with FTSs Lifetime and 12 (2-0-2) here in Oldsmar. Khozan had 17% Winners at the meeting before Rarick’s 29-1 bomb on Sunday. What better way to get off the schneid…
Exacta Key Box 6/2,3 and Trifectas 2,3,6/7,9,10/2,3,6 (18 bets)
3rd – Arnett is 27 & 64 with UCEs. He is 11 for 16 with 5 Wins with 1OC + FBK types and the Shortenup is his most productive distance change angle, 23 & 55. Ken Tohill moves his tack from Turf Paradise, which is about a click better than Rillito. I’m guessing that Tohill and Arnett have done some business at Prairie Meadows. Good luck to him. The other, Simmering (6) has a 15 & 42 angle.
Runners claimed from Simone have won 25%, with only 1 dud among the 16 claimed. Goodwin makes 8th lifetime start, so I’m in wait and see mode with Nik.
Exacta Box 5,6,7
4th – Hardesty is 20 & 45 with her angle and she was near the top of our Value Trainers’ list for ITM last year. The Factor has 4 winners at the meeting, but all were on the grass.
Torres is 31% Win and Place with this angle and Captivating Sound (10) has made par several times.
Win 10 and Saver Trifectas 1,4,5/10/1,4,5 (6 bets)
5th – Flash Frozen (3) won debut with a -1 Final Fraction. Nationally ranked sire Frosted has a 19% strike rate here. KOC is 17 & 47 with Rightbacks. Dr. No adds a wrinkle.
With a %E of 50.78 in last, Machado’s Sinetic (4) looks right for the 8F distance (%E 50.38).
Terranova is 31% Win with Non-layoff Rightbacks. His piece made a -5 Final Fraction in Tampa debut victory.
Exacta Box 3,4 and Trifecta Box 3,4/1,2,6/3,4 (6 bets)
6th – This is a great speculative betting race. I’d like to encourage a handful of players to all make different bets and I suspect someone could make a big score. I’ll offer a few versions and hope for the best…
Last name A-G take bet 1, H-N take bet 2, 0-Z bet 3
PP1 is 0-10 in these dirt dashes, but 19.2% in other dirt sprints. How do ya play that stat?
Simone has a UCE here. He bombed 7 times with the 1OC + FBK + CC + DC. RUFKM? The 6, John’s Promise has bomb angles too, but the 9YO has a competing 1 for 19 Win angle.
Mr. Bennett is 20% With this angle in 285 tries. Crichton has a 19 & 40 angle, while Arnett is 20 & 50 with Dropdowns and 23 & 65 with Shortenups.
Bet 1 – Exacta Key Box 8/3,5,7 (6 bets)
Bet 2 – Trifectas 3-8/3,5,8/3,5,7,8 (36 bets)
Bet 3 – Trifectas 3,5/All/7,8 (24 bets)
The no regrets alternative play: 8 ATB
$2 Pick 3 – 3,5,8/1,4/2,7,8 (18 bets)($36)
7th – Riga, has Takechargesmiling (4), a runner who is right where he belongs as far as class goes. John is 21 & 49 with PTBs and 23 & 55 with Plain Shortenups.
Ochoa is 45% ITM at $13.40-1 when moving UIC and he bombs with Plain starters and DCs.
San Constantino (3) an APD, goes for Bowersock, 20 & 44 with FBKs and 50 & 80 with same if the favorite.
Arriagada has only two tries with the 1OC + FBK move twice in 3 years and did not win.
Rivelli is 2 for 8 Win with Dr. No up in L7T (both favorites). Fit to Fly (8) stayed in the OST in last which was a $24K event for N4Ls/N2YTs. The Ind win was an N4L/N1Y for $30K. Idk…I’m not feeling it.
$60 Weighted Exacta Box 1,4 ($60)
$5 Trifectas 1,4/3,5/1,4 (4 bets)($20)
$0.50 Superfectas 1,4/7,8/1,3,4,5/1,3,4,5 (24 bets)($12)
8th – Arnett has another UCE here 27 & 64. The one with the angle is the 7, Itwasthisbig, 43 & 75 with the 2L1-3 + Shortenup angle.
Litigant (2) is an SOB. This oldtimer rarely makes par, but Ochoa gets a piece 46% of the time with Plain Shortenups at 17-1.
Exacta Key Box 8/2,7 and Saver Trifectas 8/1,4,6,9,10/2,7 (10 bets)
9th – Amaya is 9 (1-1-1) here with this type. This daughter of top 10 Turf sire English Channel, made a par final fraction in last and a close to par fig. Jockey change would increase my interest. Lugo is only 9 for 331 on the grass in the PE.
Trifectas 1,2,10/6,8/1,2,6,8,10 (18 bets) or Pass
*****
Wednesday, January 8th at Tampa
On Sunday, we bet 9 races and went home even, but we got a lot of excitement out of those beer money plays. So it goes…
Today my antennas are colder than the Arctic Blast were presently experiencing. I got nothing…
1st – Wocka Wocka (1) has my confidence again today. VanWinkle has a 33% Win and Place angle and WW finished up close for the Place at 6F over the Summer. PP1 was shutout on Sunday. It’s hard to keep a good Post Position (or a man) down.
Cajun Venom (6) was sold to Sacco after last and Sacco is 37 & 62 with L4-8s and 29 & 48 with Class Change NOSs. Greg also happens to be 3 for 3 Win when the favorite in this scenario.
DDs 1,6/1,5,7 (6 bets) and Saver Trifectas 2,5,7/1,6/1,2,5,6,7 (18 bets)
2nd – Simone is now 0-20 with UCEs but with ½ of them ITM. The 2 has an 0-11 angle, while the 5 has two solid angles, the Plain FBK 25 & 57 and the RtS 74% ITM. Viking Queen was par in last.
Agostini has a 52% ITM angle and goes from PP1.
Ferraro is 11 & 41 with Rightbacks. This UC move only asks for only 1 click more and Lady Quinn (7) was par in last.
Exacta Box 1,5,7
3rd – Bold Baby (7) was par for TE (Total Energy) in 1st of the claim for Juan Arraigada and appears to be the likely favorite in this race, but Juan is only 5 for 15 Win when the favorite at the meeting (while historically 41% Win) and he is 76% ITM with 2OCs when the favorite. Baby did make par after breaking thru the gate pre-race and she has to get extra points for overcoming that.
Iorio beat me by a neck on Sunday aboard Richey in a well ridden race. Cheeks drops from an N3L here and like Arnett, sends this one from a lower rated track but one with the same Average Purse Value as Tampa.
Guciardo is on fire, with 7 of 8 ITM at average odd of 8-1. She is 10 & 45 with Plain Shortenups.
Delgado has all > 50% ITM angles.
Trifectas 2,4,5,9/7/2,4,5,9 (12 bets)
4th – Aguayo is 20 & 60 with his angle, while Hernandez Jr. has all above par singles. Owner Amaty is 7 (3-2-0) at the meeting. Ochoa is 65% ITM with any distance change and Money Song (6) zipped at 6F with a par fig last winter. Arnett is 20 & 50 with Dropdowns and Owner Nielsen is 11 (3-4-0) at the current meeting.
Alexandra Sherman makes 2nd Lifetime Start today and also rides. This one, was claimed by another family member who has a 4% Win Record and an AEPS of $969. Ringo Starr wrote It Don’t Come Easy but he also wrote Don’t Pass Me By. Flip a coin…
Trifecta Box 2,4,6,9
5th – Bethany Baumgardner was an aspiring apprentice rider and she worked as an Assistant Trainer to Proctor at Delmar before the pandemic altered her course so to speak. She’s now representing Glenn Hill in Florida and they have been solid in the PE with a 17.5% Win rate and a $7800 AEPS. You know I love these trainers that are out there riding in the morning. They have the inside track (another poorly chosen pun). Proctor was 4 for 5 Win with Morales up in L3T.
Brown has a 30 & 62 angle and he is 70% ITM with the 3TS + FTT move, while Delgado is 19 & 61 with Plain Shortenups.
Trifecta Box 2,4,6,8
6th – Sincerito (10) was par two back at today’s distance and Lopez has bombed with the T Mi to 7F Dirt move in the past.
Dobber bombed twice in last 3 starts and the figs were legit. Sometimes ya gotta take things at face value.
Pick 4 – 10/1,5,8/7,8,10/3,4,6,9 (36 bets)
Saver Trifectas All/10/2,3,6 (30 bets)
7th – Here we have a condition that is rarer than a Blue Moon and is without any historical context. A real shitshow…
Trifectas 1,5,8/11,12/1,5,8
8th – Cox is masterful with FTSs. He is 25% Win in 432 tries with an AEPs of $15K.
Wolochuck is 12 of 32 with same, while Vinson has a 6 of 14 Win record with them in L3T. Watch the scratches come down…
Exacta Box 7,8,10
9th – Res ipsa loquitur.
Trifecta Box 3,4,6,9
*****
Wednesday, January 1st at Tampa
I’ve missed much of the action this past holiday week, but it’s back to business now and a Happy New Year to you! I did happen to notice a $92.30 Exacta that I picked on my birthday (for $4) but I failed to hit the BOLD TYPE button on that one. I hope some depraved action junkie had it. So it goes…
1st – Arnett has been 29 & 40 with the L1-3 + Shipper angle at the meeting and he has had good luck with Camacho for three meetings now. The contradiction that exists between these lower rated tracks that happen to have better purse values than Tampa leaves me ambivalent, but Arnett seems to have figured it out.
Posadas has a 50% ITM angle here and he presents with several bomb angles. Pedro has the #1 rider from the chute up and these Plain Starters do have an IV of 1.2. A deep dive reveals that Posadas was 8 for 9 ITM here with Mean Tweets, just before the foray into Pennsylvania and West Virginia began under surrogates last May. In the last omitted race from the PP, Mean Tweets won at 7F with a Par Quirin here.
Aguayo is one of our Top10 Value Leaders for ITM with a 15 & 46 record with this angle and his owner, Sterling, was in the top 20 last season with an 11 & 42 record.
$25 Weighted Exacta Key Box 7/1,8 and
$0.50 Trifecta Box 1,4,7,8 (24 bets)($12)
2nd – Terranova is 38 & 69 with the Shipper + Shortenup in 29 tries and his Owners, Curragh have an AEPS of $5800 and that’s 70% better than our locally based conditioners. John is also 23 & 80 off of a sharp work.
Clement is 0-10 with only 3 ITM with CC NOSs.
KOC has no angle and she is 2 for 15 with Iorio up, but has had better luck with Diaz Jr and Ferrer.
Sacco is 60 & 90 when the top choice in this scenario but otherwise appears ordinary.
Win 1 and Saver Trifectas 3/1/4,6 (2 bets)
3rd – KOC is 42% ITM with here angle and Kathy and Diaz Jr are 10 of 12 ITM with 4 Wins at the current meeting.
Simone is 0-14 with 2 ITM with the Non-1st 3 OC + UC angle.
Exacta Key Box 9/1,2,3,4
4th – Last year’s leading Tampa sire, Not This Time (30% Win), still looks for first winner at this meeting and Gallardo (and Camacho) won only 11% when up for Non-profiled/Less than Top 100 trainers. Tabor Time went -3,-6 in last. Still, Dr. No is an SOB and he can spoil any party on a whim.
Trifectas 3,5,7,8 and Saver Trifectas 3,5,7,8/2/3,5,7,8 (12 bets)
5th – Sanchez is 14 (5-2-2) with his angle and Amador was our #3 leading Value Conditioner for ITM last season
Yanez can still bomb with Plain Shortenups, but it’s been a long road for Lizqueen since two Tampa wins 20 months ago. If she pops, you’ll be witnessing a genuine coup of the grandest proportion.
Win 9 and Trifectas All/9/1,2,5,10 (32 bets)
$0.50 Pick 5 – 9/3,6,7/6,7,10/1,3,5,6/6,9 (72 bets)($36)
6th – If favoritism is to Avila’s Spunforfun (2) on the Rightback, he is 71 & 88. Juan is also 23 & 42 with FBKs. Juan is better than 23% Win here with all starters in L3T. Avila/Marin are 5 for 6 ITM with 3 Wins at the meeting.
If 2 is the favorite, then Exacta Key Box 2/3,6,7 otherwise
Trifectas 3,6,7/3,6,7/2 (6 bets)
If alive after R5, then $1 Pick 4 – 2/6,7,10/1,3,5,6/6,9 (24 bets)($24)
7th – Delgado is 43 & 75 when the favorite with 1PTBs, but he is still 32 & 72 when not the top choice in the same situation.
Stewart is 15 & 33 with FTTs and 22 & 33 off sharp works. In the Weeds (7) was par for T/E in off track debut.
Johnny Collins has evolved. The singing preacher man from Ocala was once an afterthought here in Oldsmar, but recently he’s 27 (5-5-3) with his angle. Goodness gracious, great balls of fire!
Exacta Box 6,7,10
8th – Guciardo was par in first off the layoff but she is 0-47 with FBKs while Simone is just 3 for 40 with his angle. I just can’t go there.
Trifecta Box 1,3,5,6
9th – Dear Santa (4) leaves Mark Grier who is 20% Win in the PE. The 6YO has only 9 starts and maybe that’s the rub. First try went -1,-3. But check it out, Juan is 0 for 13 off a sharp work. However, Arriagada/Camacho are 5 for 11 Win.
Delgado is 28% Win with the Plain Dropdown when not the favorite. Justintimeforwine (6) went +19,-3 and +11,-1 in last two.
Dark and Fitzy (8) was an APD at 8.5F last season.
Skipperini (9) still tugs on my heartstrings. Acclaimed was 50% ITM last season and Rodriguez has a big goose egg going this season (0-11). Darien has a 59% ITM angle. There has been a win and 3 2nds by runners out of that race on Nov. 29th. Will Dr. No go for the upset?
$2 Saver Trifectas 4,5,8/6,9/4,5,6,8,9 (18 bets)($36) if still alive
******
Tuesday, Dec. 24th at Tampa
After 15 racing days, I’m down $43.50 after wagering
$963.50. So it goes…
1st
– A quick search yields a 28 & 73 result with UCEs for McBurney in 2024. In
a 6 horse field, I say…
Trifectas 3,6/All/4,5 (16 bets)
2nd – Mr. Bennett is 19% Win with firsters in
sprints. Leading rider Marin is up. Scratches would help chances as PP7 has a 0.46
IV in these dashes.
Bahamian Native has only 5 winners from 123 starts here,
putting me off Ward’s piece.
Win 7 and Saver Exacta 2/7
3rd – Constitution is a 20% Sire here and Granitz
is 10 (3-2-0) with this type.
Not This Time sired 30% Winners last season, but is 0-8
this season. Oliver is only 6% Win with Stretchouts but she’s also 11 of 14 ITM
when < 5-2.
If favoritism is to Madam Mitole (6), Mr. Bennett is 60% Win
in 25 tries.
Hamm has an 18% Win angle here and is 24 & 55 with UCEs.
Razor sharp works earlier could provide a hint that Tim has been waiting for a
spot.
$7.50 Exacta Box 4,7 ($15) and $1.50 Trifectas 4,7/All/4,7
(10 bets)($15)
4th – Arriagada is 47% Win when Shipping and the
top betting choice and Camacho is a leader from the chute. Delaware shippers
have an IV of 1.2.
Arnett has a 33 & 67 angle, but first went -15,-9 and there
is only one track lower than FanDuel on our track class hierarchy.
Riga is 21 & 53 with Plain UC types and 12 of 14 ITM
when favored in the same situation. N1X win went 4 over par, but that’s still
the best fig in the field.
Exacta Key Box 8/4,6
5th – Thelastbulletismine (5) stays with Orseno
and Joe is 2 for 5 Win on the grass here recently. Vinson is an 18% surrogate
and he is 61% ITM with the Shipper + RtS move. 15-1 more than generous.
Dini has a 55% ITM angle.
Ironically, Richards is 0-10 with runners that are off
sharp works, with only 3 ITM.
$25 Weighted Exacta Key Box 5/4,8 and
$2 Saver Trifectas 4,5,8/7/4,5,8 (6 bets)($12)
6th – Cordero has four bomb angles going here:
Lightly Raced, Class Change, PTB and Showed Nothing in last. He had 19% bombs
last season and they all had these characteristics. PP8 hurts chances.
$5 Place and Show 8 ($10)
7th – Delgado’s Sonic Speed (2) went +6,+1 in
last and comes back fast (31 & 50). Jose is also 23 & 55 with
Stretchouts. If the favorite, he’s 43 of 57 TM with 39% Winners and if not, he’s
still 28% Win in this scenario.
Best Bet - Win 2 and Exactas 2/3,4,14
$3 Pick 3 – 2/1,3,5,6/4,10 (8 bets)($24)
8th – Wright is 19 & 34 with RBs and 50% ITM
with Stretchouts.
$0.50 Trifectas All/5/1,3,6 (27 bets)($13.50)
9th – Here we have two UCEs. Hamm is 24 & 55
and Delacour 41 & 81.
Hamm’s Why Not Me (4) went +3,+5 in last. Tim is only 9%
Win with Dropdowns, so I’m liking the 4 over the 1.
Team Valor has a 10K AEPS while Erdenheim has only a $4K
AEPS in 2024 and Centeno is 31 & 56 when up for Delacour in L3T.
See R7
Merry Christmas to all!
*****
Wednesday, Dec. 18th at Tampa
A couple of scratches on Saturday left me with nothing to do but decorate the tree. So it goes…
1st – Arriagada is 17 & 59 with 1OCs and you’ll recall that Marin will have an edge here (IV 1.5) with Camacho & Gallardo mountless.
DD 1/7 and Saver Exacta Wheel 2-7/1
2nd – Oddly enough, Arnett is 1-16 when racing off a sharp work and he’s 0-6 with 3TSs here. Camacho and Arnett are only 1 for 8 at the meeting when teamed up. It may be pizza time, but it may not be cashing time for Jon & Company.
Dini has all solid singles in this one and has been winning with 2YOs in recent years. We note that Dini as Owner has won 21% in L2T, while his employer Ballybrit is < 2% Win. Perhaps Marin gets the early double.
Win 7
3rd – The Portable Rail adjustment was changed four times in six days, leaving me wondering why. When you consider the ongoing slump for PPs 1-3 (IV of 0.62), it me leaves me begging for an explanation…
Dini has an 8 for 10 ITM angle here and his piece went evenly, while two clicks below par in 1st start since Laurel campaign.
Exacta Key Box 7/3,4,5 and Saver Trifectas 7/1,2/3,4,5
4th – Chem Major (2) has several above par duels under her belt. Missed the break in the SLOP while stretching her legs off the layoff. How convenient? Horses claimed from Jenny Hayford have a 44 & 78 record here at Tampa. There isn’t a damn difference between the $8K & $10K condition here either. Watch her go for it!
Richards has a 25 & 61 angle and Salagadoola (3) went better than par in last.
Delgado’s piece was sharp, as I suspected, off the long layoff going in a par effort. Moves up 3 classes today. He does outperform with RBs (29%) and FBKs (31%).
Trifectas All/2,3/2,3,4,6 (30 bets)
5th – Perhaps Tonight (6) has only one or two starts left in the SALW25 condition before the clock runs out. Gotta figure they will be trying while shielded. Wright is our #2 Value Trainer for Win. He is 23 & 44 here in L3T.
Joseph Jr is 45 & 63 with Camacho up in L2T and he has a 50% Win and Place angle. Beach Ready (5) is by Leading Florida Turf Sire, Treasure Beach.
Delgado is 32 & 72 with PTBs and he is 10 for 11 ITM when favored in this scenario.
KOC is 24 & 53 with Dropdowns here and gets the home field advantage.
$100 Weighted Exacta Key Box 6/3,7
$10 Saver Trifectas 6/2,5/3,7 (4 bets)($40)
6th – Simone UCE has nothing going for it, but the rest are OK.
Pass
7th - Riga has a new angle here 22 of 41 ITM with 10 Wins with PTBs. This one stays in the family so the PTB angle might not apply, but Grouchy (5) went +4,+5 off the long layoff, Morales stays up. Also note, Riga is 2-4 ITM with 1 Win with the 7F Dirt to T 1Mi move.
KOC has a very solid 45 & 60 three characteristic angle here and must get a play, Dr. No or no Dr. No. Kathy is 29 & 71 with UCEs.
In the race within the race, Intolerable (4) was much closer than appearances after Jades Jay opened up 5 lengths on the field in the backstretch before being spent. The 4 didn’t have much room behind a wall leaving the far turn, then had to angle out for room, but might have been going best at the finish. His Quirins were +11,+3, but his final fraction was a painfully slow -7.
Pick 3 - 5,8/2,5,6,7/2,9 (16 bets)
8th – D’Angelo is 1 for 10 with Long Layoffs but he was 30 & 64 with Dr, No up last season. I suspect it’s just Jose’s M.O. but Gallardo plays by his own rules.
Trifecta Box 2,5,6,7
9th – Jorge Delgado is 36 and 82 with UCEs.
Delgado is now 54 & 72 with L4-8s and he’s 31 for 34 ITM when odds-on. Add in a 70% angle with the Shipper + Dropdown and you have the ingredients for a tasty stew here. The other half of the UCE has a lot of the same angles and Jorge is also 40 & 80 with Non-layoff Dropdowns.
See R7
****
Wednesday, Dec. 11th
I’ve been treading water, with a $25 profit from only $275 in wagers. It’s time to get going.
Since Thanksgiving, 77% of the dirt races have been won from < 1 BL at the 2nd Call. When I look at the Track Profile, that looks about right. Perhaps they are on the lead or a bit closer than usual, but by less than 1/2 to 3/4 of a BL.
The turf course continues to disappoint from PPs 1-3 with just 5 Winners in 23 races and that’s less than ½ as many as we would expect to see.
1st - Centeya (10) goes for Rodriguez, 25% Win with 2YOs here and 8-12 ITM with 2YO + Turf angle lifetime. Dr. No might have played it straight for Darien last year. They were 8 of 21 ITM with 4 Wins and 4-4 ITM with 2 Wins when the favorite. He rarely enters two but is 4 of 5 ITM when doing so with 1 Win. (The 1 has an 0-14 angle).
Dini is 26 & 53 with the StR + FTT move and tries it for the first time here. He is 20% win with 2YOs at Tampa.
KOC has a UCE 30 & 70 and Kathy is 24% Win with 2YOs here. Neither have an angle, but Misspent (3) went better than par in 2nd career start, but 1st 3 T types are not a strength for O’Connell.
DDs 7,10/3,4,5 (6 bets)
2nd – Since Thanksgiving, Arnett has 4 wins and a 2nd in 8 starts with Dr No up on one of them. Charlie (3) went +10,+2 in first try and that’s good, but the 3YO maiden has failed when the favorite four times.
Mithridates (7) stayed close to Charlie in last before running out of gas late after Santos went to the stick again and again. Nope.
Exacta Box 3,4,5 (6 bets)
3rd – McBurney is 8-17 ITM with this type and he is a top 10 Value Trainer for finishing ITM.
Trifectas All/2,5/4 (10 bets)
4th – Arriagada has solid singles all around here, he has won 2 of 4 with Camacho up and 2 of 3 claimed from Moysey have won here.
East Wing (6) has hit the board in 7 of 15 sprints lifetime with 4 Wins. She went +4 early at 8.18F in last. Drops in class today.
Lusk bombed in 9 of first 12 Starts in P2T and is 0-4 so far at this meeting.
Woods Hole (3) was an APD at 7F in 22-23 and has won 3 of 7 sprints here. She’s still zipping along early. Rock bottom looks like the place they will be trying.
$15 Exacta Box 3,6 ($30) and $2 Trifectas 3,6/7,8/3,6,7,8 (8 bets) ($16) and $0.50 Supers 3,6,8/3,6/2,4,7/3,6,7,8 (20 bets)($10) ($56 Total)
5th – Over the past 16 years and in 16 tries, Manning has maintained a 44 & 63 record with the L1-3 + S + DtoT + angle. First off the layoff was an OST and Dennis has no record to speak of with those. Manning/Bracho were 54% ITM (14 of 28) at the last meeting. Would have liked there to have been a couple of more 4YO starts for sure, but with a 12 to 1 ML this is not the time to be a Doubting Thomas.
$25 Win and Place 3 ($50), if < 6-1 double the W & P Wager
and $2 Saver Trifectas 7,8,9,10/7,8,9,10/3 (12 bets)($24) ($74 Total)
6th – Nothing says betting coup like a Trainer who sleeps with her only jockey. Look at that big wakeup at 12-1 last Spring here. Allen Jr. is the all-time leader from the chute with an IV of 1.66 and San Constantino (3) was an APD here at 7F in 22-23.
Osprey (4) was supposed to win at 9-2 in last but Batista lost his irons and a lot of ground early after which they ultimately just missed in a two over par effort.
$25 Win 4, $5 Exacta Box 3,4 ($10) and $2 Trifectas 4/All/3 (6 bets) ($12) (Total $47)
DDs 4/4,10
7th – Arriagada has a quirky angle here, the Stretchout + 1PTB, 45% Win in 20 tries. Silver Style (2) was beaten by an N4L and two N3Ls in last, dampening my spirits a bit.
Aquayo had 22% Bombs last season and with three of Awesome Prince’s (3) angles here. Batista is tops from the chute.
Arnett’s piece missed in an game effort with a 1 over par effort in first try. Also see Arnett/Dr. No comments in R2.
Runners claimed from Simone are 26 & 44 here. Comes Rightback for Ramirez who makes 1st start in the PE. He hails from the southwest desert circuit, with an AEPS of $528.
Win 4 and Saver Trifectas 10/4/2,6,9
8th – Simone missed with some of his solid angles in 1st 3 OC and then again in first over the track with a -5,-4. I don’t think I will Indulge (7).
Crichton has a 20% Win angle but PP10 has won only ½ of its fair share of the sprints from this outside post in L3T. Exceptions have been heavily bet favorites.
D’Angelo has been all about Marin so far and Marin is up for Arriagada for the first time here.
Trifecta Box 3,4,5,8
9th – Pletcher is 55 & 87 with UCEs here and that begs the question, how many of these will scratch?
KOC is 28 & 47 with FTSs for a 31% profit and that is easy money, just maybe not in this race.
Hamm and Arnett look ok too.
Pass
****
Wednesday, Dec. 4th
On Saturday Mr. Pick Four and I both made some beer money.
We’re still sizing up this ever-changing landscape, where ½ of the races to
date have been won by unprofiled trainers. The rubber band hasn’t come off the
bankroll just yet. So it goes…
A chalky Wednesday is not my cup of tea. Good luck to all
who enter here!
1st – Li’l Miss Camille (1) won or finished up
close in almost all starts that she took strong action (and for several different
conditioners). Mendieta (15% Win angle) drops her in class and sticks with the
hot apprentice, Sara Hess. PP1 is 21% Win presently.
KOC has no angle unless the top choice, then she Wins 47%
of the time in this situation. She did claim Charlee (4) back for a nickel (or
virtually for free) but I don’t know. Sassy Charlee’s sire Speightster has 20%
Winners here in Oldsmar and Charlee has gone better than par here in the past.
The wisdom of the crowd dictates in R1…
???
2nd – In R2 we have two APDs facing off. Pretty’n
Awesome (6) did it at 6F last year and Ritabook at 7F. If Mr. Bennett is the
favorite, he is 77 & 100 (in 10 tries) with this angle. Mr. Rigattieri has
all sub-par singles. Faced with a dueling situation, today may not be the day
for Rita.
Cazares is 1-44 with Shippers.
Win 6
3rd – Afilada (6) means Sharp in Spanish and I
suspect Delgado will have her “afilada” today. Jorge is 63 & 75 with L4-8s and
38 & 69 off the claim. At odds-on, Delgado is 91% ITM. Pilot David Egan was
up for Delgado at GP last Sunday and I take that as a good sign (it’s a long
trip from Hallandale).
Win 6 and DDs 6/2,4
4th – Midnight Onyx (2) weakened late in last as
the favorite with Dr. No up (what a surprise!) and Yates makes the switch
today. Michael is 21% Win with his angle. Another leader is up on the RtS move.
Catalina Express (4) was par for T/E in maiden win here
last Spring and was up close for a $30K purse two back. Today there is 50% less
in prize money on the table. Rodriguez has a respectable 13 & 44 record
with this angle.
See R3
5th – Post Positions 1, 2 & 3 are only 1-14
on the grass so far! Coincidence? Maybe, but this place was under water just 4
weeks ago…
Dini 2.0 outperforms with Dropdowns and DtoT types. His
piece made career best number in last on the grass. This filly was really slow
to get the hang of it. Mike may just pull the pin again today. Watch the board.
Ward was MIA in 2024 and he has a PTB here. An 18 & 45
conditioner in P3T, Dennis is sub-par with this type (13% Win).
Tourist Style (9) remains with Elmer Gonzalez and McGoey
put a good many over in the past with Posadas as surrogate. Camacho is up. Ya
never know.
Win 5 and Saver Exacta 9/5
6th – The bajan is our #2 Elite Value
Conditioner and he as a 37% Win angle here. His 3YO made a big fig in debut, then
was distracted in next. Maybe God’s Timing (4) will be better today, but only
God knows.
Arriagada has preferred Batista and others recently, but a
quick check says that he and Castanon were 50% ITM in L2T. On paper, Conspiracy
Fact (3), entered for $16K in this condition that is for almost all comers,
should get a piece.
DDs 3,4/3
7th – KOC is currently 0-11 but with 7 ITM with
the L1-3 + S angle and Iorio is 0-5 when up for Kathy. It’s hard to keep good
women down. Spanish Noble (3) is by a leading N.A. Turf Sire.
See R6 and Saver Trifectas 2,7,10,13/3/2,7,10,13 (12 bets)
8th – Adios Babe (1) goes for red hot JC Avila
who is 50 & 83 when favored on the Rightback.
Dini is historically 50% ITM with the TtoD + RtS move and
specifically, he is 17 & 58 with the T 1Mi to 7F Dirt move.
Exacta Box 1,3 and Trifectas 1,3/1,3,4,6/1,3,4,6 (12 bets)
9th – Dr. No is as slippery as an eel in heat.
Three years ago, he was 5-12 when up for Casse, but since then he’s 3-24. To
his credit, he screws almost everybody over (not just the little guys).
Mr. Bennett has another weakness angle here, now 1-25 with
the RB + DtoT, but hold your horses! Goddess Minerva (10) went +11,+6 in MSW
win and could just be that outlier.
Rose View (11) went 17 clicks better than the bullet par at
Palm Meadows recently. I don’t leave that kind off my ticket.
Dini is 50% ITM with UCEs.
**********
Wednesday, Nov 27th – Day 3
A couple of scratches put the dud on Saturday’s selections leaving me down $40 for the day. In the 7th, Kevin’s choice beat mine in a photo, giving him his first Pick 4 of the meeting for $63.85. So it goes…
Happy Thanksgiving to all!
1st – Orantes picks up Play Maker from Buff Bradley after the breeder /salesman had this one long enough to decide to cut his losses. Descends to Tampa today for this Sophomore conditioner who already had a winner at the meeting. Derby Gonz makes first career start. Why not?
Win 7
2nd – Mr. Bennett is 23% Win with 2TSs. Took solid action first time out. Another chance.
Lightner was our #1 Value Trainer in 23-24 and she was 3 for 4 ITM with 2 Wins with Gallardo up. 5YO FTS gives me the willies.
Exacta Box 1,2,8
3rd – Romero is usually trying with firsters 10 (2-0-2). The Great Oscar is by Tapiture (13.5% Winners here). Last work at Williston Mile was 3 better than the bullet par and was from the gate.
Agostini is 10 for 21 ITM in Dirt Sprints here.
Sacco has solid singles all around.
Tough going for Bowersock in this dash from PP8 (IV0.46). Maria is only 6% Win with shippers too. Maybe next time.
Exacta Key Box 3/1,5,8
4th – Russian Hammer (3) has been consistent, and Posadas is 12 & 42 with his angle. He goes to #1 from the chute Batista.
Simone is 25 & 57 with FBKs and 6 of 12 ITM with Shippers but with no wins.
McBurney is 7 for 15 ITM with his angle and Mr. Penny Pincher has made some solid figs at 6F.
Exacta Box 1,3,9
5th – Terranova II is 100% ITM (8-8) with Non-layoff Shippers and his Owner, Curragh Stables, has an AEPS or $8400. John is 29 & 59 with Dropdowns and can pop with 2TTs. Ships from NYRA circuit (IV 2.0).
Sacco is 75 & 88 when the favorite in this scenario. He’s 30 & 63 with Dropdowns and is logical choice after making par Final Fraction in last. Camacho/Sacco are 23 & 73 as a team.
$25 Exacta Box 5,7 ($50) and
$3 Saver Trifectas 5,7/2,4,10/5,7 (6 bets)($18)
6th – Canegata is a sophomore with a 22 & 52 record and a close to par AEPS. No Angel (4) made one of the fastest pre-season works after the late backside opening. The 6YO has finished up close going two turns and that is encouraging.
Mean Tweets (6) has been working hard for a win after leaving the N3L ranks. Had to go to Mountaineer for the next one. JGW and Allen were 10-17 ITM last season. Allen often pops for a piece.
Exacta 4/6 and Trifectas All/4/6 (9 bets)
7th – Mr. Bennett has a 1-24 bet against going here: Rightback + DtoT. Ya can’t argue with failure.
$5 Saver Pick 3s – 6,7/1,5/1 ($20)
8th – Arriagada UCE looks good. He doesn’t go there too often but has won 2 of 4 recently.
$50 Weighted DDs 6,9/1 if alive in the Pick 3 after R7
9th – Wright Jr. is 24 & 50 in L2 after a long break from the game. The majority of these Turf Dashes are won from off the pace and PP1 was 15% Win for the past two meetings.
Saver Trifectas All/1/7,9 if still alive to cover
****************************************
November 20th – Opening Day
Long time subscribers know that I don’t play any other tracks. It's peculiar being wedded to something only 1/2 the time, but after 18 years, I have learned to embrace it when the day arrives and then let go of it on the first Saturday of May.
This year, there are New Trainer Profiles for Campbell, D'Angelo, McGaughey and Simone, to complement the existing 83, as well as a 5000-race study of Place and Show Prices (when the Winner's Odds are X).
Mr. Pick Four has survived the Florida hurricanes and we are thrilled to see he is back after making a nice profit at last year's meeting.
1st - Mr. Bennett has an IV of 0.77 with MSWs and can’t be the top choice under these circumstances.
David Wolochuk has a 29 & 58 record at MVR and TDN with this type in 158 tries in L5. However, Heavenly Dancer (6) doesn’t show even one sharp work and debut was sub-par. Additionally, before Christmas, TDN shippers have an IV of 0.73.
Damen’s piece, Amata (1) worked very sharply on Sept. 28th and Diaz Jr. sticks and must be given a chance after SLOPPY debut.
The NYRA circuit veteran from Hoosick Falls, Gary Contessa, has curtailed operations in the PE but is still solid and he was usually trying here at Tampa in L5T (10 & 45 in 29 tries).
Arnett is 8 of 16 ITM with this angle and Union Rags is a 15.7% Sire here in Oldsmar. Arnett was 16 & 48 in L3T, even though this fish usually swims in a smaller pond. Dr. No commences his sleight of hand tricks for another meeting in this one.
McBurney had a solid first meeting and is bound to improve as he gets his sea legs. He had a 4.13 ITM Value Index rating last season, putting him in the Top 5.
DDs 3,5/5,6
2nd – We have three trainers with Weaknesses here. Arnett is 2 for 30 with his angle, Arriagada is 14% with his angle (29 tries) and Delgado is 2 for 20 with his angle.
D’Angelo has a Win Value Index (VI) of 1.38, Ships from Del, IV 1.47 before Christmas (B4C) and Compa’s (5) sire is 16% Win here in 818 tries over the years. Owners Global are better than 50% ITM Lifetime. D’Angelo is 15 & 47 with this angle.
Sacco goes to the new undisputed leader from the chute, Jose Batista here. If it takes solid action, it may be trying after vying early at 8F in last. Laurel shippers have an IV of 1.47 B4C and if the favorite, Greg is 75% win with this angle in 16 tries.
Saver DDs 5,6/5,8 to cover
3rd – Whistlewhileyoumow (4) won with a 1 over par effort here last winter and drops for the first time since the last day of the meeting. Gets extra points as a Mth shipper (IV 1.23). McBurnery is 14 (2-1-3) with this angle.
Litigant (8), a hardcore Tampa veteran can pop on demand for Ochoa, but he has no angle here.
Simone has a 1-18 weakness angle here (Non 1st 3OC + Class Change) and missed at 1 to 5 in last in WV.
Sovereign of Speed (3) has a 22.4% Sire here, Lord Nelson, but McGoey is represented down South. Why the move to Jehaludi? Appears to have gone wrong.
$25 Win 4 for 3-1 or <, otherwise $10 ATB 4
4th – Scooter Davis has been all business here. He’s 14 (5-3-2) in L5T with this angle and was close to par in last two.
Arriagada’s Shivaree (1) drops in class off the claim, after odds say the 7YO was outmatched in last. Batista is his regular boy (28 & 62). Juan has all solid singles in this one.
Simone has the same 1-18 weakness angle here (Non 1st 3OC + Class Change) with the 2, giving the other ½ of this UCE a leg up on the other. Owner Deckert Jr is 21 & 53, hinting that two unproductive starts in the same race appear to be unlikely.
Posadas has a respectable 13 & 46 angle here and assignment of Ferrer (IV 1.4 from the chute) generates some interest on the dropdown from Delaware (IV 1.2)
$1 Trifecta Box 1,3,6,8 ($24)
5th – Ryan has an Aqu shipper (IV 2.40 B4C) that is on the FBK (8 & 38). Two of every three of Derek’s wins are on the Shortenup or Stretchout. He is 54% Win and 71% ITM if the favorite when Shipping. Violets Smile (4) was fractious in the gate but battled to the final furlong in last and shaves 660 feet from her obligation today.
Similarly, Arriagada is 46 & 79 if the favorite when Shipping, but Batista is not up and Juan also has a 4-29 angle here (L1-3 + 1OC). It’s a tough call.
Arnett is off Dr. No here, switching to Camcho (they are a 24 & 46 team) but Jon has three sub-par singles in this one.
Win 4
6th – Applying the desirable 3+3 test to this N1X (see the Other Observations doc) Rigattieri and Campbell get the nods.
John’s last start was at Tampa and he hasn’t had a starter at another track in the past year, so it’s safe to say that Arriagada has acted as surrogate only and Takeschargesmiling (4) is now coming home. Riga has a 17 & 44 angle.
Michael’s piece is 100% ITM (5-5) with 3 Wins if the favorite in this spot, Ice Man loves this surface and is by Frosted, Tampa’s #3 leading sire with 18.9% Wins.
Everdoit (2) was in top condition for a while last winter but hasn’t gotten his mojo back ever since. Was beaten by N3Ls in last two. Rice is 1-34 with Non-layoff Shippers.
Mr. Bennett figures for a piece here and may even surprise.
Exacta Box 4,5,7
7th – Mr. Bennett has conflicting angles here. He is 61 & 89 when 2L1-3 + the Favorite, but 11% Win (14 of 125) with 2L1-3 + No Class Change types. Of course, 11% for others wouldn’t be too shabby.
Rodriguez is 10-21 W & Pl with his angle, while Lopez is 9 of 19 W & Pl with his.
My stats on Gallardo (as well Camacho for that matter) indicate only 11% and 12% strike rates respectively when up for trainers that were not in the top100 or Profiled (by me). Enter Mr. Yates who is only 3 for 20 in L5T.
$2 Trifectas 1,7,10/4,6/1,4,6,7,10 (18 bets) ($36)
Saver DDs 4,6/3 to cover
8th – Arriagada is 5 of 6 ITM with 4 Wins with L9ups and we’ve seen this dropdown move before. In last before the long layoff, Practicality (3) was beaten by Athena’s Wisdom 14 (5-3-0) and Ritabook 26 (3-8-1). The 5YO should put these away if all four legs are sound.
Exacta Key 3/4,7,9 (7 to 5 would be more than fair for the Win)
9th – In these dashes, anything outside PP7 has an IV of 0.46.
KOC is 24% Win with 2YOs and 17 & 44 with 2TSs here.
Wolochuk kills it with FTSs on the Dirt (33% Win in 66 tries) and 2YOs (28% Win).
Mr. Bennett is 20 & 44 with FTSs and he goes to the leading rider here. Come on man, Gimme Some Luck (5)!
Exacta Box 3,5,8
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