Saturday, May 2, 2009

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 05/03/09

Prime Wager Results.15-38 (40%) -$7.20 (15-4-8) (71% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....21-70 (30%) -$20.20 (21-16-9) (66% ITM)

Seasonal Recap:
302 Structured Winning Wagers
(1 of every 3 races after Scratches)

103 Winners (Average Payoff $6.00)
141 Exactas (Average Payoff $30.00)
54 Trifectas (Average Payoff $138.30)
4 Daily Doubles (Average Payoff $18.10)

Prime Wager Results 65-211(30.8%) +$20.00 (65-30-27) (57.8% ITM)

On Saturday, my prime wager in the 3rd, Three On A Match, won and paid $9.40 and my prime wager in the 5th, Doctor Carina settled for third.

Among my contenders only selections:

My 3rd race $6 exacta key returned $25.00,
I had the winner of the 6th, Celebration Dance, $8.40,
My 8th race $4 saver exacta returned $8.40,
My 10th race $4 saver exacta returned $56.40

So it goes...

There is only 1 more race day of free selections before The Tampa Bay Downs Handicapper becomes a subscription only site. Avoid the annual subscription price increase (to $99 after May 3rd) and subscribe today for $25.

Sunday’s selections at :

1st Contenders Only (D) – Roman Scorpian (2) just missed in debut and %E is ideal for the stretchout to 8.18F. Had the best fig in the field (by my numbers) and goes for Horacio Barbaran who wins 17% with maiden claimers. Bailey’s Pepper (3) has %E that is near the upper limit for today’s distance but is still in the zone. Sheds 15 lbs. with Schorr up and Faith had two winners and four ITM in three days this week. Early Again (9) raced forwardly at the route on off tracks in last two and has virtues that are inconspicuous. Big Cash (10) has blown his cover after almost stealing one at today’s distance at 24-1 in last. Scace will be trying again today. Rice has Frazil (7) ML 9-2 but she has not won a Sprint-to-Route in L4T. Win (2), Saver Exactas 3,9,10/2 and Trifectas 2,10/1,7/2,3,9,10

2nd – Contenders Only (C) – Sweetasnails (6) goes for Chad Stewart and he wins 18% with Turf-to-Dirt runners and 18% (55%ITM) with dropdowns. Switch to #2 leading jockey Ronnie Allen Jr. adds value. Sweetasnails was ITM in first three starts and if she isn’t discouraged she’ll be right there. Win (6), Saver Exactas 1,7,12/6 and Trifectas 6,12/1,7,8,9,11/6,12

3rd – A soft wager – Fortunate Trail (8) is in rare form and is strictly the one to beat. Was above par in last three. Ziadie wins 35% (52%ITM) rightback. Leading Owner Richard Averill has 37% winners this season. Hot apprentice Faith Schorr brings him home at 106 lbs. Win (8), Saver Exactas 3,4,5/8 and Trifecta Box 3,4,5,8.

4th – Contenders Only (B) – Palace Cat (3) was gaining and just missed in Tampa grass debut and stretches out today. Was close to or above par in all four grass starts. Last fig was best among today’s field. Lerman had six turf winners in previous two seasons and is winless this year. It’s now or never. Mac Speed (4) was caught in last after chasing a slow early pace. Win (3), Saver Exactas 2,4,7/3 and Trifectas 3,4/1,2,7,10/3,4

5th – Contenders Only (C) – Make My Day (8) had best early fractions two and three back and was shown the pecking order of things in last. Drops today and should recover from bruised ego. HVG jumps from Espirit de Mar (7) to stay with Make My Day. Williams wins 17% (58% ITM) with L1-3s and 20% (40% ITM) with dropdowns. Win (8), Saver Exactas 9,10,12/8 and Trifectas 8,9,12/1,7,10/8,9,12

6th – Contenders Only (B) – Only four of O’Connell’s 56 winners in L3T were fastback types and none came back in <9 days. Jackies’s Causeway (9) has never come back fast in her 12 starts. I think K’OC is mistaken to try to squeeze another race out of Jackie’s Causeway before the meeting ends, so Jackie’s Causeway, ML 9-5, is my false favorite of the day. Mini Goal (2) goes for Robert Raymond and he had eight stretchout winners in L3T. Try Your Best (4) comes back fast for Bruce Alexander and he wins 26% with fastbacks. Stormy Drew (6) doesn’t look like much but she has some solid final fractions and may be there late. Win (2), Saver Exactas 4,6/2 and Trifectas 2/All/4,6

7th – Contenders Only (C) – Dirtkicker (8) was up for the place with a par fig in last and Gatis wins 23% (46% ITM) with stretchouts. Mike Allen has the return call and the Gatis/Allen team has 2 wins and 2 seconds in 7 starts. I’m Wealthy (3) stretches out after closing nicely in last. Drops 7 lbs. in switch to hot apprentice Michele Dehn. Devilish Mecke (9) goes for Tampa veteran Emanuel Tortora (3-6 this season) and Mecke will shake off Nightmare Alley (4) early on. Win (8), Saver Exactas 3,9/8 and Trifectas 3,8/5,6,7,9/3,8,9

8th – Contenders Only (B) – SS Seraphim (3) is simply moving through her conditions and won at today’s distance in last. Athens Two O Four (5) goes for Delacour and she had 10 layoff winners in L2T and wins 26% rightback. Will have to bring it to another level to win here. Dovita (7) has won two and had a sub-12 final fraction in last, but expectations are not high that struggling trainer Ray Tamargo Jr. will get it done here. Win (3), Saver Exactas 5,7/3 and 3,5,7/1,4/3,5,7

9th – Contenders Only (B) – Megaconfusion (3) has good early speed and takes a drop for Freddie Hyatt who goes to Ronnie Allen Jr. to bring her home. Pearl’s Unbridled (1) improved in 2nd start at Tampa and had the best dirt fig in the field in last. Switch to Millwood is not encouraging though. Win (3), Saver Exacta 1/3 and Trifectas 1,6,9/3/1,6,8,9

10th – Contenders Only (A) – That’s My Man (1) was at or above par, early and late, in two of last three and benefits from the inside post position here. Newcomer Jillian Andreasen goes to #2 leading rider Ronnie Allen Jr. Dead Red (10) surprised most as the sixth choice in the wagering last time out, just missing, with a 99 (today’s par is 86). Must overcome PP10 which is only 1-13 (7%) in Turf Sprints this season. Win (1), Saver Exactas 5,8,10/1 and 1/4 and Trifectas 1/5,8,9,10/5,8,9,10

11th – A prime wager – Storm Thief (6) takes a big drop (from a par 73 to a par 65) and Mr, Allen won 38% with Layoff + Dropdown angle in L2T. Races at this level for the first time in his career. Allen’s looking to make him eligible for the $5000 starter allowance condition and hopes that no one is watching on the last day of a long season. I expect he’ll be claimed. Thief has been ITM in 7-9 at Tampa and has a clean record and looks like a winner among these. Very Arrogant (10) just hung in last, switches to Centeno, won five races as a 4YO and is ITM 50% of the time. Represents the main threat here. I said I was off Sir Swervalot (3) the moment he dropped to this level and he’s been the beaten favorite in all four since. Don’t let him take your action today! Win (6), Saver Exactas 2,10/6 and Trifectas 6,10/2,3,5/2,3,5

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

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