Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 05/02/09

Prime Wager Results.14-36 (39%) -$12.60 (14-4-7) (70% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....21-70 (30%) -$20.20 (21-16-9) (66% ITM)

2008-2009 Seasonal Recap: 297 Structured Winning Wagers
(1 out of 3 races after Scratches)

101 Winners (Average Payoff $6.00)
138 Exactas (Average Payoff $30.10)
54 Trifectas (Average Payoff $138.30)
4 Daily Doubles (Average Payoff $18.10)

Prime Wager Results 65-211(30.8%) +$20.00 (65-30-27) (57.8% ITM)

On Tuesday, my three soft wagers ran 1st, 2nd and 3rd.

Among my contenders only selections:
My 1st race $6 saver exacta returned $26.20,
My 2nd race $4 saver exacta returned $136.00, and
My 8th race $2 saver exacta returned $14.40

So it goes...

There are only 2 more race days of free selections before The Tampa Bay Downs Handicapper becomes a subscription only site. Avoid the annual subscription price increase (to $99 after May 3rd) and subscribe today for $25.

Saturday’s selections at http://www.thetbdhandicapper.com/ :

1st – Contenders Only (C) – Petit Roman (2) had %E of 51.13% on off track in debut at 6F and that is very close to today’s ideal %E for 8.5F which is 51.05%. HVG has the return call and he was ITM seven times in last three race days, as many of the leaders are moving on. I know he’ll be looking to clean up this last weekend. Bullseye Boy (9) was closest to par in last two. Unspacely (8) has %E that is outside the upper parameter for today’s distance. Win (2), Saver Exacta 9/2 and Trifectas 2,9/1,10,12/1,2,9,10,12

2nd – Contenders Only (B) – Catch a Peek (2) has been ITM in last three with Centeno up and O’Connell/Centeno team is 68% ITM this season. Catch a Peek won two of last ten, the best record among these. Deus Vult (5) had the best fig in the field in last and goes for Lynn Scace who wins 22% with fastbacks and 24% with stretchouts. Deserves another chance in second try at the N1Y level. Photo Image (11) is the wildcard here. Ness won two last year with Photo Image after claiming her for Sukharan for $25,000. She was trounced as the beaten favorite in last after racing well all winter. Ness has his best winning angle %’s going here, but this a negative drop to me. I just can’t put her on top. Win (2), Saver Exactas 5,11/2 and Trifectas 2/5,6,7,8,11,12/5,11

3rd – A prime wager – Three On a Match (3) comes back fast after having the best fig in the field in last. Also had two of the best final fractions in the field after racing into fast early paces in last two (including the last that went on a Turf course with a -12 variant). Griffin had two fastback wins in L2T. Butler is a solid 10% turf rider. Win (3), Exactas 3/1,4,5 and Trifectas 3/1,4,5/2,8,9

4th – Contenders Only (C) – Deep Silence (3) was blocked for a time in the stretch, swung wide for racing room and was up for 2nd in a photo in last. Comes back fast for Hayford who will be trying again today. Mr. Georges Dreams (6) has figs that are good enough to put these away and has HVG in the irons today. Win (3), Saver Exacta 6/3 and Trifectas 3,6/2,5,7,8,10/3,6

5th – A prime wager – Doctor Carina (1) was shuffled back for racing room in the backstretch and on the far turn, was 8th entering, got thru in the stretch and finished very strongly but was too late in last. Final fraction in that one was an untouchable 11.68. Centeno has the return call. Pink Tights (7) was covered up entering, swung wide for racing room in the stretch and was flying late to be up for 2nd in last. Tights is the main threat here. O’Connell has 9-2 ML SS Royal Endeavor (2) but she won only 9% coming rightback in L3T and only 11% with L1-3’s. Win (1), Exacta Box 1,7 and Trifectas 1/All/7 and 1/2,7/2,7

6th – Contenders Only (C) – Celebration Dance (7) just missed in first race at this level and is 8-10 ITM at Tampa now and has eight 2nds in 20 starts. Scace and Mike Allen team up for the win here. Too Much Zip (4) has powerful Ness angles going (Route-to-Sprint 50% and Fastback 32%) and Zip had solid fig in N2L win two back. Tangerine Rose (9) had two solid efforts before tiring at 7F. Shortens up today and goes for Scace who wins 24% (51% ITM) with L1-3’s. Asteria Meadow (1) had a big winning fig in last but Ubide has not won rightback in L3T. Win (7), Saver Exactas 4,9/7 and Trifectas 4,7/4,7,9/1,3,9,10

7th – Contenders Only (C) – Dennis Manning has Victory Alleged (8) and he will be ready. Victory came off a long layoff to be 2nd in last year’s Chris Thomas Turf Classic and 13 of 18 of Manning’s wins in L4T were Layoffs. Earned an honest 90 in Tampa Bay in February, running down the leader after staying close to the fast pace throughout. Sporting Art (5) likes to go long and leaves Graded Stakes company for Clement, who has been flawless this season. Centeno was up for 10 of his 12 wins. Sir Dave (3) had monstrous final fractions of 11.76 and 11.33 in last two on the grass and is on the way up. PID’s 2008 riding champion Dale V. Beckner has the call aboard Fierce Wind who is FTT today and who is to question William Phipps and his 62% win record. Win (8), Exacta Box 3,5,8 and Trifectas 3,5,8/1a,2,4/3,5,8

8th – Contenders Only (D) – Cayo Costa (5) was 2nd best in debut and stretches out for Julie Luhr here. Luhr has had several stretchout winners in L2T and I’m sure she would like to see longtime Breeder/Owner Stella F. Thayer go home happy this afternoon. Win (5), Saver Exacta 4,6/5 and Trifectas 5,6/3,4/3,4,5,6

9th – Contenders Only (C) – Therecomesatiger (2) was beaten by the heavily favored and well backed Baron Von Tap last time out and was simply outgunned in that one. Has a softer spot here. Liquid Amber (5) had sub-12 final fractions all last summer and has been working well for return. Alexander has lots of Layoff winners, and Centeno is 63% ITM with Alexander’s runners. Transit of Venus (8) is 58% ITM on the grass and drew off smartly in last two. Can’t be left out. Win (2), Saver Exactas 5,8/2 and Trifectas 2,8/2,5,8,9/2,5,8,9

10th – Contenders Only (C) – Ay Papi (8) was above par in 4 of last 6 dirt routes and has been working well for return. Alexander goes to Centeno again. 3F work from the gate on 4/21 was two clicks above par for bullet works from the gate at that distance. CJ’s Whatsinaname (1) has been at or close to par in last five starts. Dehn had 3 winners and 5 ITM in last three race days. Nomudderafleet (3) was close to CJ’s Whatsinaname in last and seems to like going long. Win (8), Saver Exactas 1,3/8 and Trifectas 8/1,3/4,5,6,7

11th – Contenders Only (C) – Fizzy Pop (8) had a great year in 2008 and drops in class here for bomb maker Bernell Rhone who wants to get Fizzy’s 2009 season finally going. Raced into moderately fast fractions throughout in 2009 grass debut. Had bullet work at 5F last week. Fizzy Pop may pop this afternoon. Win (8), Exacta Box 2,4,8 and Trifectas 2,4,8/2,4,8/3,5,10

12th – Contenders Only (B) – Bakers Eye Candy (7) goes for Lynn Scace and she wins 37% with L4-8 + types. Genuine Heart (6) was very close to par in first two tries. Gerry Bennett wins 25% (75% ITM) with 3TSs. Win (7), Exacta Box 6,7 and Trifectas 6,7/3,4,5,9/6,7

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

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