Tuesday, December 22, 2009

Sunday, May 3, 2009

Tampa Bay Downs Results - 05/03/09

2008-2009 & 2007-2008
Prime Wager Results 80-250 (32%) +11.80 (80-34-35) (60% ITM)

2008-2009 Seasonal Recap:
307 Structured Winning Wagers
(1 of every 3 races after Scratches)

106 Winners (Average Payoff $6.00)
142 Exactas (Average Payoff $29.90)
55 Trifectas (Average Payoff $135.80)
4 Daily Doubles (Average Payoff $18.10)

On Sunday, my prime wager in the 11th, Storm Thief, was out of the money, and my soft wager in the 3rd, Fortunate Trail won and paid $3.00.

Among my contenders only selections:

My 2nd race $6 saver exacta returned $23.60,
My 3rd race $16 trifecta box returned $14.60,
I had the winner of the 5th, Make My Day, $5.00, and
I had the winner of the 10th, That's My Man, $6.40

So it goes...

As we close the door on another season, I want to take this opportunity to thank everyone for their support of the website, the email, the phone calls, etc... There is nothing more valuable to a handicapper than the ability to listen carefully to someone else's opinion. Have a great summer and fall and I'll see you in December with my redesigned, tricked out, better than ever website. Subscribers will be sent the 2009-2010 Handicapping Package, including the revised Trainer Profiles as soon as they are completed.

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

Saturday, May 2, 2009

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 05/03/09

Prime Wager Results.15-38 (40%) -$7.20 (15-4-8) (71% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....21-70 (30%) -$20.20 (21-16-9) (66% ITM)

Seasonal Recap:
302 Structured Winning Wagers
(1 of every 3 races after Scratches)

103 Winners (Average Payoff $6.00)
141 Exactas (Average Payoff $30.00)
54 Trifectas (Average Payoff $138.30)
4 Daily Doubles (Average Payoff $18.10)

Prime Wager Results 65-211(30.8%) +$20.00 (65-30-27) (57.8% ITM)

On Saturday, my prime wager in the 3rd, Three On A Match, won and paid $9.40 and my prime wager in the 5th, Doctor Carina settled for third.

Among my contenders only selections:

My 3rd race $6 exacta key returned $25.00,
I had the winner of the 6th, Celebration Dance, $8.40,
My 8th race $4 saver exacta returned $8.40,
My 10th race $4 saver exacta returned $56.40

So it goes...

There is only 1 more race day of free selections before The Tampa Bay Downs Handicapper becomes a subscription only site. Avoid the annual subscription price increase (to $99 after May 3rd) and subscribe today for $25.

Sunday’s selections at http://www.thetbdhandicapper.com/ :

1st Contenders Only (D) – Roman Scorpian (2) just missed in debut and %E is ideal for the stretchout to 8.18F. Had the best fig in the field (by my numbers) and goes for Horacio Barbaran who wins 17% with maiden claimers. Bailey’s Pepper (3) has %E that is near the upper limit for today’s distance but is still in the zone. Sheds 15 lbs. with Schorr up and Faith had two winners and four ITM in three days this week. Early Again (9) raced forwardly at the route on off tracks in last two and has virtues that are inconspicuous. Big Cash (10) has blown his cover after almost stealing one at today’s distance at 24-1 in last. Scace will be trying again today. Rice has Frazil (7) ML 9-2 but she has not won a Sprint-to-Route in L4T. Win (2), Saver Exactas 3,9,10/2 and Trifectas 2,10/1,7/2,3,9,10

2nd – Contenders Only (C) – Sweetasnails (6) goes for Chad Stewart and he wins 18% with Turf-to-Dirt runners and 18% (55%ITM) with dropdowns. Switch to #2 leading jockey Ronnie Allen Jr. adds value. Sweetasnails was ITM in first three starts and if she isn’t discouraged she’ll be right there. Win (6), Saver Exactas 1,7,12/6 and Trifectas 6,12/1,7,8,9,11/6,12

3rd – A soft wager – Fortunate Trail (8) is in rare form and is strictly the one to beat. Was above par in last three. Ziadie wins 35% (52%ITM) rightback. Leading Owner Richard Averill has 37% winners this season. Hot apprentice Faith Schorr brings him home at 106 lbs. Win (8), Saver Exactas 3,4,5/8 and Trifecta Box 3,4,5,8.

4th – Contenders Only (B) – Palace Cat (3) was gaining and just missed in Tampa grass debut and stretches out today. Was close to or above par in all four grass starts. Last fig was best among today’s field. Lerman had six turf winners in previous two seasons and is winless this year. It’s now or never. Mac Speed (4) was caught in last after chasing a slow early pace. Win (3), Saver Exactas 2,4,7/3 and Trifectas 3,4/1,2,7,10/3,4

5th – Contenders Only (C) – Make My Day (8) had best early fractions two and three back and was shown the pecking order of things in last. Drops today and should recover from bruised ego. HVG jumps from Espirit de Mar (7) to stay with Make My Day. Williams wins 17% (58% ITM) with L1-3s and 20% (40% ITM) with dropdowns. Win (8), Saver Exactas 9,10,12/8 and Trifectas 8,9,12/1,7,10/8,9,12

6th – Contenders Only (B) – Only four of O’Connell’s 56 winners in L3T were fastback types and none came back in <9 days. Jackies’s Causeway (9) has never come back fast in her 12 starts. I think K’OC is mistaken to try to squeeze another race out of Jackie’s Causeway before the meeting ends, so Jackie’s Causeway, ML 9-5, is my false favorite of the day. Mini Goal (2) goes for Robert Raymond and he had eight stretchout winners in L3T. Try Your Best (4) comes back fast for Bruce Alexander and he wins 26% with fastbacks. Stormy Drew (6) doesn’t look like much but she has some solid final fractions and may be there late. Win (2), Saver Exactas 4,6/2 and Trifectas 2/All/4,6

7th – Contenders Only (C) – Dirtkicker (8) was up for the place with a par fig in last and Gatis wins 23% (46% ITM) with stretchouts. Mike Allen has the return call and the Gatis/Allen team has 2 wins and 2 seconds in 7 starts. I’m Wealthy (3) stretches out after closing nicely in last. Drops 7 lbs. in switch to hot apprentice Michele Dehn. Devilish Mecke (9) goes for Tampa veteran Emanuel Tortora (3-6 this season) and Mecke will shake off Nightmare Alley (4) early on. Win (8), Saver Exactas 3,9/8 and Trifectas 3,8/5,6,7,9/3,8,9

8th – Contenders Only (B) – SS Seraphim (3) is simply moving through her conditions and won at today’s distance in last. Athens Two O Four (5) goes for Delacour and she had 10 layoff winners in L2T and wins 26% rightback. Will have to bring it to another level to win here. Dovita (7) has won two and had a sub-12 final fraction in last, but expectations are not high that struggling trainer Ray Tamargo Jr. will get it done here. Win (3), Saver Exactas 5,7/3 and 3,5,7/1,4/3,5,7

9th – Contenders Only (B) – Megaconfusion (3) has good early speed and takes a drop for Freddie Hyatt who goes to Ronnie Allen Jr. to bring her home. Pearl’s Unbridled (1) improved in 2nd start at Tampa and had the best dirt fig in the field in last. Switch to Millwood is not encouraging though. Win (3), Saver Exacta 1/3 and Trifectas 1,6,9/3/1,6,8,9

10th – Contenders Only (A) – That’s My Man (1) was at or above par, early and late, in two of last three and benefits from the inside post position here. Newcomer Jillian Andreasen goes to #2 leading rider Ronnie Allen Jr. Dead Red (10) surprised most as the sixth choice in the wagering last time out, just missing, with a 99 (today’s par is 86). Must overcome PP10 which is only 1-13 (7%) in Turf Sprints this season. Win (1), Saver Exactas 5,8,10/1 and 1/4 and Trifectas 1/5,8,9,10/5,8,9,10

11th – A prime wager – Storm Thief (6) takes a big drop (from a par 73 to a par 65) and Mr, Allen won 38% with Layoff + Dropdown angle in L2T. Races at this level for the first time in his career. Allen’s looking to make him eligible for the $5000 starter allowance condition and hopes that no one is watching on the last day of a long season. I expect he’ll be claimed. Thief has been ITM in 7-9 at Tampa and has a clean record and looks like a winner among these. Very Arrogant (10) just hung in last, switches to Centeno, won five races as a 4YO and is ITM 50% of the time. Represents the main threat here. I said I was off Sir Swervalot (3) the moment he dropped to this level and he’s been the beaten favorite in all four since. Don’t let him take your action today! Win (6), Saver Exactas 2,10/6 and Trifectas 6,10/2,3,5/2,3,5

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 05/02/09

Prime Wager Results.14-36 (39%) -$12.60 (14-4-7) (70% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....21-70 (30%) -$20.20 (21-16-9) (66% ITM)

2008-2009 Seasonal Recap: 297 Structured Winning Wagers
(1 out of 3 races after Scratches)

101 Winners (Average Payoff $6.00)
138 Exactas (Average Payoff $30.10)
54 Trifectas (Average Payoff $138.30)
4 Daily Doubles (Average Payoff $18.10)

Prime Wager Results 65-211(30.8%) +$20.00 (65-30-27) (57.8% ITM)

On Tuesday, my three soft wagers ran 1st, 2nd and 3rd.

Among my contenders only selections:
My 1st race $6 saver exacta returned $26.20,
My 2nd race $4 saver exacta returned $136.00, and
My 8th race $2 saver exacta returned $14.40

So it goes...

There are only 2 more race days of free selections before The Tampa Bay Downs Handicapper becomes a subscription only site. Avoid the annual subscription price increase (to $99 after May 3rd) and subscribe today for $25.

Saturday’s selections at http://www.thetbdhandicapper.com/ :

1st – Contenders Only (C) – Petit Roman (2) had %E of 51.13% on off track in debut at 6F and that is very close to today’s ideal %E for 8.5F which is 51.05%. HVG has the return call and he was ITM seven times in last three race days, as many of the leaders are moving on. I know he’ll be looking to clean up this last weekend. Bullseye Boy (9) was closest to par in last two. Unspacely (8) has %E that is outside the upper parameter for today’s distance. Win (2), Saver Exacta 9/2 and Trifectas 2,9/1,10,12/1,2,9,10,12

2nd – Contenders Only (B) – Catch a Peek (2) has been ITM in last three with Centeno up and O’Connell/Centeno team is 68% ITM this season. Catch a Peek won two of last ten, the best record among these. Deus Vult (5) had the best fig in the field in last and goes for Lynn Scace who wins 22% with fastbacks and 24% with stretchouts. Deserves another chance in second try at the N1Y level. Photo Image (11) is the wildcard here. Ness won two last year with Photo Image after claiming her for Sukharan for $25,000. She was trounced as the beaten favorite in last after racing well all winter. Ness has his best winning angle %’s going here, but this a negative drop to me. I just can’t put her on top. Win (2), Saver Exactas 5,11/2 and Trifectas 2/5,6,7,8,11,12/5,11

3rd – A prime wager – Three On a Match (3) comes back fast after having the best fig in the field in last. Also had two of the best final fractions in the field after racing into fast early paces in last two (including the last that went on a Turf course with a -12 variant). Griffin had two fastback wins in L2T. Butler is a solid 10% turf rider. Win (3), Exactas 3/1,4,5 and Trifectas 3/1,4,5/2,8,9

4th – Contenders Only (C) – Deep Silence (3) was blocked for a time in the stretch, swung wide for racing room and was up for 2nd in a photo in last. Comes back fast for Hayford who will be trying again today. Mr. Georges Dreams (6) has figs that are good enough to put these away and has HVG in the irons today. Win (3), Saver Exacta 6/3 and Trifectas 3,6/2,5,7,8,10/3,6

5th – A prime wager – Doctor Carina (1) was shuffled back for racing room in the backstretch and on the far turn, was 8th entering, got thru in the stretch and finished very strongly but was too late in last. Final fraction in that one was an untouchable 11.68. Centeno has the return call. Pink Tights (7) was covered up entering, swung wide for racing room in the stretch and was flying late to be up for 2nd in last. Tights is the main threat here. O’Connell has 9-2 ML SS Royal Endeavor (2) but she won only 9% coming rightback in L3T and only 11% with L1-3’s. Win (1), Exacta Box 1,7 and Trifectas 1/All/7 and 1/2,7/2,7

6th – Contenders Only (C) – Celebration Dance (7) just missed in first race at this level and is 8-10 ITM at Tampa now and has eight 2nds in 20 starts. Scace and Mike Allen team up for the win here. Too Much Zip (4) has powerful Ness angles going (Route-to-Sprint 50% and Fastback 32%) and Zip had solid fig in N2L win two back. Tangerine Rose (9) had two solid efforts before tiring at 7F. Shortens up today and goes for Scace who wins 24% (51% ITM) with L1-3’s. Asteria Meadow (1) had a big winning fig in last but Ubide has not won rightback in L3T. Win (7), Saver Exactas 4,9/7 and Trifectas 4,7/4,7,9/1,3,9,10

7th – Contenders Only (C) – Dennis Manning has Victory Alleged (8) and he will be ready. Victory came off a long layoff to be 2nd in last year’s Chris Thomas Turf Classic and 13 of 18 of Manning’s wins in L4T were Layoffs. Earned an honest 90 in Tampa Bay in February, running down the leader after staying close to the fast pace throughout. Sporting Art (5) likes to go long and leaves Graded Stakes company for Clement, who has been flawless this season. Centeno was up for 10 of his 12 wins. Sir Dave (3) had monstrous final fractions of 11.76 and 11.33 in last two on the grass and is on the way up. PID’s 2008 riding champion Dale V. Beckner has the call aboard Fierce Wind who is FTT today and who is to question William Phipps and his 62% win record. Win (8), Exacta Box 3,5,8 and Trifectas 3,5,8/1a,2,4/3,5,8

8th – Contenders Only (D) – Cayo Costa (5) was 2nd best in debut and stretches out for Julie Luhr here. Luhr has had several stretchout winners in L2T and I’m sure she would like to see longtime Breeder/Owner Stella F. Thayer go home happy this afternoon. Win (5), Saver Exacta 4,6/5 and Trifectas 5,6/3,4/3,4,5,6

9th – Contenders Only (C) – Therecomesatiger (2) was beaten by the heavily favored and well backed Baron Von Tap last time out and was simply outgunned in that one. Has a softer spot here. Liquid Amber (5) had sub-12 final fractions all last summer and has been working well for return. Alexander has lots of Layoff winners, and Centeno is 63% ITM with Alexander’s runners. Transit of Venus (8) is 58% ITM on the grass and drew off smartly in last two. Can’t be left out. Win (2), Saver Exactas 5,8/2 and Trifectas 2,8/2,5,8,9/2,5,8,9

10th – Contenders Only (C) – Ay Papi (8) was above par in 4 of last 6 dirt routes and has been working well for return. Alexander goes to Centeno again. 3F work from the gate on 4/21 was two clicks above par for bullet works from the gate at that distance. CJ’s Whatsinaname (1) has been at or close to par in last five starts. Dehn had 3 winners and 5 ITM in last three race days. Nomudderafleet (3) was close to CJ’s Whatsinaname in last and seems to like going long. Win (8), Saver Exactas 1,3/8 and Trifectas 8/1,3/4,5,6,7

11th – Contenders Only (C) – Fizzy Pop (8) had a great year in 2008 and drops in class here for bomb maker Bernell Rhone who wants to get Fizzy’s 2009 season finally going. Raced into moderately fast fractions throughout in 2009 grass debut. Had bullet work at 5F last week. Fizzy Pop may pop this afternoon. Win (8), Exacta Box 2,4,8 and Trifectas 2,4,8/2,4,8/3,5,10

12th – Contenders Only (B) – Bakers Eye Candy (7) goes for Lynn Scace and she wins 37% with L4-8 + types. Genuine Heart (6) was very close to par in first two tries. Gerry Bennett wins 25% (75% ITM) with 3TSs. Win (7), Exacta Box 6,7 and Trifectas 6,7/3,4,5,9/6,7

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.