Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 04/02/08

Results 55-182 (30.2%) +$10.60 (55-24-25) (57.1% ITM)

In the 3rd, Lookatme Afleet won handily and paid $4.20. In the 5th, Dixieland Drummer finished second at 8-1 (paying 7.80 for the place). In the 8th, Crafty Grey was out of the money. In the 9th, Spy Story won and paid $7.40, capping a roller coaster afternoon for me that ended on the + side. In my contenders only selections, my $8 early DD wager clicked for $18.00. In the second, they finished as I had them, but the 9 was DQ'd for interference at the start. So it goes...

On Wednesday, a lot of question marks and a couple of solid wagers.

1st - DD 3,/2,3,4

2nd - Exacta box 2,3,4

3rd - A soft wager, Kin Kon (PP6). A subpar field gives Kin Kon the nod. Ascending figs for each of first three starts are 41-44-52. Today's par is 63. Posted three above par performances in April last season. Comes back in six days for Contreras (78% ITM with the FBK). Switch to Centeno a harbinger of a good race this afternoon. Awesome Allen (PP8) last three were in the 50's and beaten by 11 1/2 in last. Fontana will try if that finish in last improves Awesome Allen's odds this afternoon. I'll bet Kin Kon to win and a 6,8 exacta box.

4th - Tri key 9/2,3,8

5th - A prime wager, Gran Cesare (PP3). If you recall, I've been touting all the horses that raced with Onotheregoestokyo after he put up a 113 (I've since revised that fig down to a 105) on 2/12 and one after another they've failed to get to the winner's circle. Then on 3/29, Ono pops again at 1 3/8ths miles on the grass, paying a whopping $26.60. And who runs with him? Starlight Serenade loses to him in a photo. Starlight Serenade ran third in the race on 2/12. Now I've had my doubts about the verity of that 113 (105) on 2/12 because it was the lone turf race that day and coming up with a variant was guesswork. But the previous race day the turf was -1 and the next race day the turf was -8. So whatever the variant was on 2/12, it was most likely a negative number. After Ono's win on 3/29, I'm convinced the 2/12 fig of 113 (105) is legit. That brings us to Gran Cesare and today's race. GC posted a 91 in the 2/12 race and an 88 in his previous grass contest on 1/26. Today's par is 71. GC gave Lockhart his only winner this season. You can be sure he desperately wants another. The only threats I see are Grato Recuerdo (PP5), the classy 8yo gelding who is always in the money at the downs but who hasn't raced since December and Jaredstemper (PP8), a game SOB who posted a 76 in last on the grass. Bet Gran Cesare with confidence and make a straight 3/5,8 exacta key in hopes of improving the ROI.

6th - November Ten (PP4) Across the board. Rhone is masterful off the claim and the layoff/up in class combo is his signature move. This is NOT a soft wager. Strictly an across the board bet that will have a positive ROI.

7th - Exacta key 7/1,6,8

8th - A soft wager, Manchu Prince (PP3). Has improved in each of last three with figs of 77-81-94. Today's par is 71. Velez is arguably the best grass rider at the downs. Trainer Dale Bennett wins a lot of grass races too. Any questions? I'm betting Manchu Prince to win and straight trifectas 3/6/10 and 3/10/6.

9th - Exacta box 4,5

10th - Exacta box 3/9,10 and DD's 3,9,10/9

11th - Exacta box All/9 (Pray for something wild.)

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.