Avoiding Jamie Ness (if you can)!

He's got a 32% Win and 62% ITM record over the past two seasons, an absolutely incredible record.

Last year he had starts in about 20% of all the races run at Tampa Bay Downs.

So what's the problem? Generally speaking, unless you are a wizard, you can't make money betting Ness.

Here are the numbers (and this is based on the first hundred races that Ness had a starter last season, and representing half his starts at Tampa and a more than adequate sampling):

While he had 39 winners out of the first 100 races (39%), if you bet him to win you lost $2.80 (his average win payoff was $5.06).

While he was in the money in 51 of the first 100 races (51%), if you bet him across the board you lost $55.00.

But here's the best one of all. While he was a part of 49 of the first 100 exactas he had a starter in last year, if you boxed him in the exacta with two other horses (a $12 wager) in those first 100 races and you had it right every time, you collected 49% of your wagers, but lost $12.00. (Now I've excluded eight winning exacta combinations that involved Ness and winners or placers that were >20-1, but let's face it, most of us mortal men wouldn't have had them anyway).

Ladies and gentlemen, the old cliche, "if you can't beat'em, join 'em" does not work with Jamie Ness.

The axiom should be "If you can't hook up Ness with a longshot in the exacta, pass the race!"

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.