Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 01/02/09

Prime Wager Results.6-15 (40%) -$2.40 (6-2-3) (73% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....3-8 (38%) +$1.80 (3-2-0) (63% ITM)

On Wednesday, I had no prime selections. My soft wager in the 4th, Bello Papa scratched and my soft wager in the 8th, Repenter won the duel he found himself in, but had to settle for second behind the late running On Deck. In that race, my $2 saver exacta returned an incredible $13.60, more than adequately covering the lost win wager. For the first time in this young season, my contenders only selections came up empty. I blew the call in the 3rd, when Kenny Run (who was sore in the post parade of last two) won going away and which serves as a practical reminder that if you drop a horse low enough, he could win on three legs. So it goes...

It has occurred to me that readers need and deserve an explanation as to the relative weighting of my selections. The ratio of my wagering on Prime, Soft and Contenders Only selections is about 10-3-1 respectively. Contenders Only play accounts for only about 20% of my action. Sometimes I pop for big payoffs in Contenders Only races, but I don't have regrets. I back my strong opinions strongly and enjoy the action the other plays provide.

Friday's selections:

1st - A soft wager, Darby Lee (4). Posted a 66 (today's par is 55) two weeks ago at TAM and was gaining late. Drops a notch against a weak field today. Ness is 33% with 2L1-3+2S+ Dropdown. Ronnie Allen Jr. returns to ride for the win. Win, Exacta 4,7 and Trifectas 4/2,6/7.

2nd - A soft wager, Pompano Beach Rose (4). This one is right out of my trainer profile for Ness. Layoff + Dropdown+ RtS + Turf to Dirt = 78% Win rate (7-9). Win, Exacta Key 4/6,8 and Trifectas 2,3,9/4/6,8.

3rd - Contenders Only - Exacta Box 2,4,10 and Trifectas 3/2,4,10/2,4,10.

4th - Contenders Only - Exacta Key Box - 2/8,11

5th - A soft wager, La Corredora (3). Averaged 12 sec/panel in final 4 1/2 furlongs in last (after dueling throughout), a huge effort. Have not seen that from any NW2LT lately. O'Connell was 2nd leading trainer on the grass last year and was 40% (2-5) with L4-8s. Leyva has had a great start at Tampa this season and is competent on the turf. Win, Exactas 3/1,4 and Trifectas 7,10/3/1,4.

6th - Contenders Only - Exacta Key Box 1/5,8

7th - Contenders Only - Exacta Box 6,7,8

8th - A soft wager, Greeley's Voice (5). Put up an 86 (today's par is 78) two weeks ago and was slowly gaining late. Fast pace wipes out others, moderate pace leaves GV with lots of energy for the finish. Cronk wins 30% on the stretchout. Wondering why RoHo jumps for another Cronk runner in the same race. Win, Exacta Box 5/7,9 and Trifectas 4/5/7,9.

9th - Contenders Only - Exacta Key Box 9/7,10 and Trifectas 1,2,6/9/7,10.

10th - Contenders Only - Exacta Box 2,3,7 and Trifecta 9/2,3,7/2,3,7.

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.