Prime Wager Results.14-32 (44%) -$4.60(14-3-6) (72% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....19-58 (33%) -$4.20 (19-13-6) (66% ITM)
On Sunday, I had no prime or soft wagers.
Among my contenders only selections:
My 1st race $4 saver exacta returned $9.60,
I had the winner of the 2nd, Bagatelle Terrace, $2.80,
I had the winner of the 7th, On Tour, $2.60 (DH),
My 7th race $36 trifecta wager returned $177.60,
My 10th race $8 exacta key box returned $18.00, and
My 10th race $24 trifecta returned $34.20.
So it goes...
Tuesday’s selections at www.thetbdhandicapper.com :
1st – Contenders Only – Meganello (10) has the best fig in last and her pace numbers are reliable. Grilledham’ncheese (1) dueled and faded in last, switch to Straight sheds 12 lbs. Personal Cat (4) goes for Kathy Guciardo. Three of her ten winners in the last three seasons were layoffs (including a five month layoff). Win (10), Saver Exacta 1,4/10 and Trifectas 1,4,10/5,7/1,4,10
2nd – Contenders Only – Creative Love (5). Three of last four were good enough to put these away. Mr. Allen wins 24% on the fastback. The Allen team is 33% ITM this season. Sunset Escapade (7) has the second best figs recently. Fontana shortens up and switches jockeys and that usually means he’ll be trying. Chobe (2). Anytime you can exploit a Ness weakness, you must. He wins only 22% with shippers and he’s the second choice in the ML. It’s so infrequently that you can bet against him with any confidence and when you can, you have to make the most of it. Win (5), Saver Exacta 7/5 and Trifectas 5,7/2,3,8/5,7
3rd – Contenders Only – Dixie Pipe (4). I raved about him in last (Search Blog for Dixie Pipe) and I’m sticking with him. Dixie Pipe had to settle for 3rd , but had the best fig in the field in last. Adds riding champion Daniel Centeno. Bennett wins 33% with Route-to-Sprints. However, Dixie Pipe has no sprint wins in his 45 race career. Sam’s Delight (7) returns to a sprint where his figs say he’s a contender and Sam is in condition now. Exacta Box 4,7 and Trifectas 4,6,7/4,6,7/2,5,8
4th – Contenders Only – Trifectas 1,5/1,5,7/1,5,7 and Saver Trifectas 1,5/1,5,7/2,3 I don’t see any other logical outcome here. Wagers should be made at a ratio of about 5 to 2.
5th – A soft wager (but only if Irish Channel goes to the post at <3-1) – In first grass race at two turns, Irish Channel (7) had an eye-popping final fraction for the last five furlongs of 11.84. Delacour is 21% with turf runners this year and was 50% ITM in last two seasons at Tampa. If the $170K Long Bay Stables runner is ready she wins. Prytrania (8) goes for Proctor who was 2-3 with the Layoff + 2TT angle in the last two seasons at the Downs. Mac Speed (9) has second best final fractions and was closing gap at *1Mile in last. O’Connell/Velez are 50% ITM this year. Win (7), Saver Exactas 3,8,9/7 and Trifectas 7,8,9/2,3,6/7,8,9
6th – Contenders Only - Res ipsa loquitur (the PP’s speak for themselves). Exacta Box 3,7,12 and Trifectas 3,7,12/2,8,9/3,7,12
7th – Contenders Only – Wynn’s Wild Flower (9) had best dirt fig in the field in last and finished second in last two. Excellent work on March 18th adds value. Jolley/Allen are 55% ITM. Seattle Tapdance (10) has superior turf figs and Delacour had one winner this year that disappointed on the grass and then won a dirt sprint, but that happened only once in the last three seasons. Win (9), Saver Exactas 7,10/9 and Trifectas 1,3,8/9/7,10
8th – Contenders Only – Between Us (2) returns to 5F where she graduated in MC25 company. Drops from the $16,000 level today. Dale Bennett wins 40% with Shorten Ups and 33% with Dropdowns. Silver Truth (7) was four lengths above par in last at 6F and shortens up today. Pogo Stick (12) has two wins and two seconds in six starts and finished 2nd after a six month layoff in 2007. Raymond has one other winner after a six month layoff. Straight comes in at 108 lbs. Is Pogo Stick ready? Win (2), Saver Exactas 7,12/2 or 4,7/2 (if 12 is out) and Trifectas 2,7,12/3,4,9,10/2,7,12 or 2,4,7/3,9,10/2,4,7 (if 12 is out).
9th – Contenders Only – Scruples In (4) was going well until the final 1/8th of a mile in last against ALW NC company. Previous effort at 5F in the same company was also satisfactory. Drops down and shortens up today. Rock Lobster (5) has only sub-12 final fraction in the field, and Griffith won 60% with Layoff + Shipper + Shorten Up angle in last two seasons. Constitution River (6) is 5-5 ITM at Tampa and is Ambrosia’s star pupil. Wouldn’t be wasted going longer unless Ambrosia is convinced he can win. Go to the Sun (8) was 2-5 in 2008 and Gulick won 50% with Dirt-to-Turf angle in last two seasons at the Downs. Win (5), Saver Exactas 4,6,8/5 and Trifectas 4,6,8/4,6,8/5
10th – Contenders Only – Leon Noack (1) was close to par in last three. Scott, who is having a good season, goes to Straight to try to get it done. 10 lbs. off can’t hurt. Victory Drink (10) was above par in 5 of 7 career starts. McMullen wins 21% with MC’s and he had three layoff winners in the last two seasons at Tampa. Win (1), Saver Exacta 10/1 and Trifectas 1,10/3,5,8,9/1,10
Good luck and good racing!
Johnny B.
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2 comments:
John, you should list the $ amount bet every day, so we can do the math at the end of the day.
Cory613,
Johnny B will provide a wrap up at the end of the season. However, I don't bet all of them and I'm sure you don't either. We pick our spots of course. Additionally, I bet my primes, soft and contenders only wagers at a ratio of about 10-3-1, so the amount I wager on contenders only selections is relatively small. I want to provide my readers with well reasoned, intelligent information that enhances their handicapping ability. I hope that's what you get from the site.
Johnny B.
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