Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 03/27/09

Prime Wager Results.14-32 (44%) -$4.60(14-3-6) (72% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....19-59 (33%) -$6.20 (19-13-7) (66% ITM)

On Tuesday, my soft wager in the 9th, Moonshine Mania, settled for 3rd at 7-1.

Among my contenders only selections:

My 1st race $4 saver exacta returned $17.40,
My 3rd race $6 saver exacta returned $23.40,
My 7th race $4 saver exacta returned $19.20, and
My 10th race $4 saver exacta returned $39.20.

So it goes...

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Friday’s selections:

1st - Contenders Only – My Espresso (4) improves with each start. One of Pierpont’s four winners in the last three seasons was a fastback type. Griffith has Reagin’s Pride (1) and he’s great with firsters, but he had none at the MC8 level in the last three seasons. Miller has Bipette (6), but he had no L4-8 winners in the last three seasons. Win (4), Saver Exactas 3,8/4 and Trifectas 4/1,2,5/3,8

2nd – Contenders Only – It’s Dom’s Turn’s (2) current form and liking for the Tampa surface have to make him my top choice here. Dom is 7-10 ITM at Tampa, including five wins. Gerry Bennett has Keynes (7) and he has won 3 of 4 with the L4-8 + S + Dropdown angle. Bennett has an incredible 50% ITM record from 140 starters this season. Western Pirate (4) has won or placed in 14 of 27 starts. Nabu Morales is a competent trainer, but I am without intel on his modus operandi. Centeno answers the call. Can’t be left out. Win (2), Saver Exacta 7/2 and Trifectas 2,4,7/2,4,7/2,3,4,6,7

3rd – Contenders Only – Rainbow Glider (2). Behrens tried to steal last one at 24-1 and had to settle for 2nd. Glider has seven seconds to his credit. Shortens up today. Primogeniture (6) has one second in five dirt routes and returns to the dirt today. It’s a mystery why Bates would send Primo south to an ALW race where he went to post at 222-1 and now drop him to rock bottom N2L but I’m concluding that this is not a negative drop. Red hot RoHo (two wins and two seconds on Tuesday) has the call. Win (2), Saver Exacta 6/2 and Trifectas 2,6/3,7,8/2,3,6,7,8

4th – Contenders Only – Ten Ten Ten (10) goes for Moises Yanez and he has only two winners at Tampa in recent memory, both of them Layoff + Shippers. On a scale of 1-10, Ten Ten Ten’s figs are a 10 among today’s starters. Tag You’re It (4) has improved in every start and had excellent work two weeks ago. Can struggling Yang get him home first? Salsbury (12) has the best fig among recent starters. Win (10), Exacta Box 4,10,12 and Trifectas 4,10,12/1,3,7,8/4,10,12

5th – Contenders Only – Sweet Paprika (11) was ITM in 11 of 17 in 2008, with 3 wins, and was up for the place in last two weeks ago, unlike the 7 & 8 who haven’t won a race since 2007. However, Wicked Sweet’s (7) trainer Robert Raymond has won with 7 layoff runners in the last couple of seasons and Centeno is up. Dual Diagnosis (8) finished close behind Sweet Paprika and may be returning to her 3 and 4 year old form. Cincy Girl (9) won at this distance last year at Tampa, but her current form is questionable. Win (11) and Saver Exactas 7,8,9/11 or Exacta Box 7,8,9 (if the 11 is out).

6th – Contenders Only – Lunar Crop (9) was 2nd in second grass start and his workout four days ago was four clicks above par for bullets at 4F. Ronnie Allen Jr. has the return call for Tom Proctor, who has seven grass winners this season. Allen has ridden half of Proctors winners this year. Awesome Charlie (1) and Sharpness (5) were both banged around after the start in last and Charlie was checked for room on the clubhouse turn. Their final fractions were acceptable. Both improve with better trips today. Win (9), Saver Exactas 1,5/9 and Trifectas 1,9/5,8,13/1,5,9

7th – Contenders Only – Lawrenceville (7) had untouchable fractions in last and his turn time was faster than his 1st Call time. If he can repeat that effort, there would have to be a big surprise for an up set to occur. It looks like the rest of the early speed will be chasing before tiring. Win (7) and Saver Exactas 4,5,8/7

8th – Contenders Only – Very Capo (4) has produced in whatever way Ness has asked and is in great form now, coming off two above par wins. Crackenthorpe (6) has satisfactory figs and his final fractions indicate reliability and a strong late run here. He is the only one of my top three whose last was at today’s distance. Champagne Brunch (12) had best final fraction in last and Centeno jumps off Very Capo. Will be very tough if he gets in. Exacta Box 4,6,12 and Trifectas 4,6,12/2,5,8,10/4,6,12

9th – Contenders Only – This Is My Game (9) and Heez for Doc (5) both have a win and a second in five starts on the dirt, but Proctor’s charge gets the nod on his 33% win (50% ITM) record with Sprint-to-Route angle. Flashy Wonder (1) had big fig in last and is ITM in 6-10 at the Downs, however Downing has no Sprint-to-Route wins in the last three seasons at Tampa. Win (9), Saver Exactas 1,3/9 and Trifectas 1,3,9/4,5,7/1,3,9

10th – Contenders Only – Tahoe Warrior (4) goes for Linda Rice who had four Layoff + Shipper winners in the last four seasons at Tampa, quite an accomplishment given the small number of starters she has here. Tahoe Warrior drops and Centeno will be in the irons. Not Acclaim (10) had monstrous 1st call fractions in last two and that was on turf course with -7 variant both days. Clocker needs to check his stopwatch after Xep for Elmer (2) went four furlongs a full second above par for bullet works at 4F twelve days ago. Win (10), Saver Exacta 4/10 and Trifecta Box 2,4,8,10

11th – Contenders Only – Rockon Rockoff (5) has best figs in the field in last two and drops a notch here. Gilded Key (8) won last and comes back fast for McCooey and he had three fastback winners in last two seasons. He also had two wins on the stretchout. Back figs say he can compete at the route. Kinfolk Moonshine (1) was up for second after going Sprint-to-Route earlier this season. Is 47% ITM at Tampa. Exacta Box 1,5,8

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.