Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 01/03/07

Results 5-14 +$13.00 (5-2-0)

On Sunday, Hurry Up Hilliard came through in the fifth wiring the field and winning handily, improving the Beaver's winning percentage to 35% after 11 days at Tampa Bay Downs. Only 86 days to go.

It's 45 degrees as I write this morning from Florida and 10 degrees colder with the wind chill. Brrrrrrrrr!!!!! Today's selections will factor in the thermal and wind factors because this is no ordinary day for the ponies in the Sunshine State. The winds will favor front runners at the Downs and the cold will favor any horse that has raced up north in the past month or so. This situation is as real as your New Year's Day hangover. So watch the horses body language in the paddock and going to the post. If your horses teeth are chattering, his eyes are half closed, his ears are flopped, his head is down and/or he starts slapping his tail in annoyance when his rider mounts.........get off him (I don't care if he's 1-5 on the board)!

This afternoon, in the fifth its Barney Smith (PP6). Consistently an above par performer, Barney comes back fast after posting a respectable par 67 eight days ago at 7F for competent trainer Michael V. Simone (11-43 in 2007). Today, Barney shortens up an 1/8th mile to 6F and drops from C6250 to C5 (a drop in class, albeit a marginal one). Veteran rider JS Rocco Jr will be looking for his first win at the meeting aboard Barney Smith. While I think the track will be speed favoring today, there is so much speed in this race, there may not be one speedster left standing in the stretch run. Barney raced up north at Pen and Med last month, adding value to this play.

In the tenth, I've got Brittany's Honour (PP9) on top. Fontana has been hot with his putovers and I'm playing with some of his money, so I'll back him again. When a horse shows any sign of life before finishing poorly, Fontana has tipped his hand. Brittany races on 13 days rest after dueling in the stretch, finishing 6th by seven lengths in her last, and shortens up while moving up a click in class (three additional Fontana putover indicators). Brittany also raced up north at Suffolk last month giving her extra credit. Veteran jockey PL Cotto Jr. rides.

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.