Results 8-22 +$12.20 (8-2-0)
On Sunday, Yes Its True Shery won the 5th in a photo. Longshot Lite Dreams (11-1) managed to get up for fourth, lightening my wallet somewhat for the day. This is a tough game.
For the most part, today will be a day of probabilities. The entire off-season of data crunching, looking for trainers with successful angles and statistics regarding the kinds of horses that win specific kinds of races.
In the third, Stack Blues (PP5) wins on his merits. Consistently racing above par, Stack Blues gets the nod in the third race. Barbara McBride shortens up Stack Blues a 1/16th of a mile after besting the rest in the same company last time out. Figures to improve today. Carlos Montalvo will ride again.
In race six, the trainer angle comes into play. Sam Cronk's strongest winning attribute is the fastback, sprint to route, second time out. I'm betting Sas See Fras Play (PP2) with conviction and the blind faith that Cronk can just do what he already does best. Joe Rocco will bring it home, despite his poor start. I'm hoping Sunday's win will mark the end of his slump.
In the eigth, my selection comes with a caveat. In sprints on the dirt, the optional claimers win 50% of the time whenever they're the favorite going to the post. This has been true for the past three seasons. I can't argue with the facts. So, if Miltos Express (PP7) is the favorite in the eigth, I'll play her to win (and in the exacta with Sage's Dream (PP6) for second). If she's not the favorite at post time, then Sages Dream becomes my selection (with Miltos Express completing the exacta). These two figure anyway. The statistics are simply working in my favor.
Good luck and good racing!
Johnny B.

Sunday, January 6, 2008
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