My Optional Claiming race analysis for the 2007-2008 season is complete and for the third consecutive season the Optional Claimers continue to win at least 50% of the sprints on the dirt when they are the betting favorite at post time. This past season the OC's went to the post as the favorite in 11 races and won 6. This is a powerful result and I'll exploit it again next season.
In 2007-2008, the conditioned entrants in OC sprints on the dirt won less than their fair share of the races, winning only 8 of 24, while 10.32 wins would have been expected. In the previous two seasons the conditioned entrants won more than twice their fare share of such races and have won 62% of all Optional Claiming sprints on the dirt run in the past three seasons at Tampa Bay Downs. However this trend is downward with the conditioned entries winning 22 in 05-06, 13 in 06-07 and only 8 in 07-08. I'm not drawing any conclusions from these results.
No other extraordinary results were observed for the rest of the OC races including sprints on the grass, or routes dirt or grass.
Next, I'll be looking at the ROI's for trainers who made claims in 2007-2008 at Tampa Bay Downs. Be sure to check in for those results.
Johnny B.
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