Tampa Bay Downs 2007-2008 Season Analysis #5

The CURSE of the shipper that receives heavy betting action at Tampa Bay Downs and fails to fire.

Fact or fiction?

In my next analysis, I'll be looking to determine whether or not there is any validity to the widely held belief that shippers who get lots of action at Tampa Bay Downs (especially in better races) are usually a bad bet.

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And here are the results.

Generally speaking, there's no curse. In 2007-2008, there were 151 races* in which shippers were the favorites. The maiden and claiming shippers that were the favorites won slightly less races than favorites generally (29% vs. 34%). In the races for better horses the shipping favorites won slightly more races than favorites generally (36% vs. 34%). But here's the rub. The 2$ Flat Win Bet ROI in these races was an unacceptable ($0.32). That's sixteen cents of every dollar wagered out the window. So while it may not be a curse, it's certainly a bad proposition. Of course every race is different, but as a general matter, bet a Tampa Bay Downs regular (or a longshot shipper) and you'll be cursing less often.

* - For the purposes of this analysis, the first month of racing was excluded from consideration in order to ensure an adequate number of regulars with which to compare the shippers.

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.