Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 04/18/09

Prime Wager Results.14-33 (42%) -$6.60(14-3-6) (67% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....20-64 (31%) -$12.40 (20-14-7) (64% ITM)

Seasonal Recap: 279 Winning Wagers

91 Winners (Average Payoff $5.90)
132 Exactas (Average Payoff $29.30)
52 Trifectas (Average Payoff $140.30)
4 Daily Doubles (Average Payoff $18.10)

On Tuesday, my soft wager in the 10th, Supply Guy, was out of the money.

Among my contenders only selections:

I had the winner of the 1st, Lil Skeletol, $5.40,
My 4th race $12 exacta box returned $19.60,
I had the winner of the 5th, Courting Cat, $6.20,
My 5th race $16 trifecta returned $109.20,
I had the winner of the 6th, Polarity, $4.00,
My 8th race $4 saver exacta returned $17.80,
I had the winner of the 9th, Ixtabentun, $3.60, and
One of my contenders only wagers scratched today.

So it goes...

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Saturday’s selections at http://www.thetbdhandicapper.com/ :

1st – Contenders Only (B) – Winblaiseandshow (6) has %E that is in the zone for the stretchout and was ITM in 9 of 17. HVG has been hot recently and HVG has the return call for Eddie Clark, sticking with Winblaiseandshow over Wynns Message (8) who just hung in last at today’s distance. Dawns Fearless Son (7) had the best fig in the field in last and shortens up after weakening in the final furlong in that one. Dawn has shown good early speed at the route in last three and has had only six starts. Sneaky Guy (3), the 5-2 ML favorite, was the beaten favorite in two of last three, had disappointing figs in last two, and O’Connell goes to low % apprentice Michele Dehn. O’Connell wins 0% with fastbacks and only 14% with the Sprint-to-Route angle. Time to lay against. Win (6), Exacta Box 6,7,8 and Trifectas 3,6/3,6,7,8/3,6,7,8

2nd – Contenders Only (C) – Sarkozy (9) was above par in last in a game effort and shortens up for Ray Tamargo Jr. Allen sticks. St. Patrick’s Jet (8) has %E that is in the target zone and has been improving. Call On Joshua (11) was close at today’s distance eight weeks ago and Fontana has his successful Distance Change + Jockey Change angle going here. Bullseye Boy (10) was above par in last on WF surface but has had 23 tries. Win (9), Exacta Box 8,9,11 or Saver Exactas 6,8,10/9 (if 11 doesn’t go) and Trifectas 9/1,2,7/6,8,10,11

3rd – Contenders Only – (C) – First we’ll deal with the favorites. Voodoomon (2) goes for McMullen and he had no L9 & up winners in L2T. Had a great work on 3/14 and has Centeno up, but no horse should be 9-5 after a 16 month layoff. Sir Swervalot (6). We know he had a physical problem when Ness opted for the class drop three back but the horse has heart and he keeps trying. If the problem was fixed Ness would move him back up, but he doesn’t. Could win but I think Ness is hoping to lose him. Bello Pappa (10) is a dueler who seems to have gotten discouraged after failing to have it his own way up front recently. Today, Very Arrogant (3) goes with him to add insult to injury. Now Florida Boy (4) on the other hand, had a decent (albeit sub-par) fig in last and has been ITM in two of last three and Camilo is always dangerous for a price. Win (4), Exacta Box 2,4,6 and Trifectas 2,6/1,3,5,8/2,4,6

4th – Contenders Only – (B) – Gato Paso (2) surprised in debut at the route on the grass and had the best fig in the field among the grass runners here and she was three clicks above par for bullet works at 4F a week ago. Cynthia’s Secret (3) goes for KO’C and she won 50% (67%ITM) with FTT angle in L2T, however, Secret’s %E is well outside the upper parameter for 8.5F on the grass. She figures to argue the early pace with Canadian Jade (6) but CJ is very competitive and will get a piece. Moonshine Mania (1) was rallying late in last and will benefit from the extra 110 yards. Awesome Charlie (7) won in a race with a slow pace and a slow finish and there was nothing awesome about it. Win (2), Saver Exactas 1,3,6/2 and Trifectas 1,2,6/3,4,5,7/1,2,6

5th – Contenders Only – (B) – I’m Wealthy (2) was close to par in last and was the only horse of the five here that went in that one to hang on for a piece in a race with a blistering fast early pace. Faces those five again and should find the pace more comfortable today. Little Richie (3) faced several winners of two in open company last time out and those have been racing well since. Richie was at or above par in six of last ten. Andrew Hall (5) goes for the master bomb maker Fontana and was trounced in last after racing at or above par in six of eight lifetime. Looks like a setup. Win (2), Exacta Box 2,3,5 and Trifectas 2,3,5/7,9,10,11/2,3,5

6th – A soft wager – Mac Speed (5) has the best final fractions in the field and was rallying late after being 17 back early in last. KO’C drops her a notch and adds Centeno today. Bon Bon (4) has very reliable final fractions and the GP shipper faces softer today for Garcia who had four winning shippers in L3T. Rice has Topo Gigio (9) but she had no FTS winners on the turf in L3T.Win (5), Saver Exacta 4/5 and Trifectas 4,5/3,10/3,4,5,9,10

7th – A soft wager– Grimaldi (7) goes for Wilson who brings the 3YO back to earth after going long on the grass after impressive maiden win at the Jersey shore last summer. Wilson had an L4-8 winner last year and curiously enough, he had an off-the-claim winner that dropped in class and shortened up last year too. Grimaldi had a monster work at four panels two weeks ago and looks ready. Win (7), Saver Exactas 10,11/7 and Trifectas 7,10,11/3,4,6,9/7,10,11

8th – A prime wager – Luckman (2) was above par in last three and my figs give him an 89-108-77 in those. Today’s par is 76. He stayed with the fast early pace in last but the tank was empty late. By comparison, Luckman and his cousin Flymambo (6) went the same day (on March 28th) and Flymambo just missed with a 65. This is why I make my own figs and I’ve got to stick with them. On April 3rd, I said Lord Louis’ (10) final fractions have been getting softer and softer since the fall and that I was not expecting much from him. Walder scratched him that day and again on the 11th. I’m sticking by my assessment. Win (2), Exacta Box 2,6,8 and Trifectas 2/6,8,10/6,8,10

9th - Contenders Only (D) – Magna Heart (6) was above par in last and was above par in six of last ten. If there is class among trainers, Derek Ryan has it here. Dini and Jeffries both have firsters going but neither has won with a FTS in L4T. Win (6), Saver Exactas 4,10/6 and Trifectas 6/All/4,10

10th – Contenders Only (C) – Loose Goose (1) had the only sub-12 final fraction in last and that was into a moderately fast pace. Bramante surprises often. Haitian (3) has obvious virtues. Been Awhile (5) won last and is 4-7 ITM now. Is He Proud (7) was close up in all four on the grass and Passero often wins with Dirt-to-Turf angle. Vail is a good turf rider. Win (1), Saver Exactas 3,5,7/1, Trifectas 1,3/4,7,8,9,11/1,3,5

11th – Contenders Only (B) – Regent Star (8) was closest to par in last and races at this level for only the 2nd time while shortening up today. The Star is now 9-21 ITM lifetime. Win (8), Saver Exactas 3,4,10/8 and Trifecta Box 3,4,8,10

12th – Contenders Only (C) – Multicard (6) is 5-5 ITM and was gaining slowly in last. Stretches out today. Ottasea (5) and Stepaside Girls (7) are sub-par but fairly reliable. Miami Mood (8) has %E that says no to the stretchout and Switzer has no Sprint-to-Route wins at Tampa. La Corredora (1) takes a negative drop and so does Strike Jak (10) but the latter makes some sense. Sweetsouthernstar (12) comes back fast for Wasiluk and he has at least 12 fastback winners in L3T. Win (6), Saver Exactas 5,7,10,12/6 and Trifectas 1,10/6/5,7,8,12

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.