In Part 1 of this exploration of my exacta wheel theory, I found that if I had wheeled all 211 of my soft and prime selections under All, I'd have lost a whopping $2204.
In Part 2, I did the same calculations only this time I excluded those races in which my selection was the betting favorite at post time. Much to my surprise, the outlay in the second scenario was $2036 and the return only $706, for a net loss of $1328.
The good news is that I never have to be distracted by this theory ever again. I will not even let it enter my mind. Well, maybe if my selection is 20-1, I might go for a $2 All/My Selection wheel, but that's it.
This theory is busted.
Next, I be looking to validate a pattern I've documented in the previous two seasons. In the Feature and Stakes races for the two previous seasons, straight $2 exactas on the second and third betting choices has yielded a positive ROI of $0.90 and $1.90 respectively. If it held up again in 2007-2008, I'll be betting exactas in these races blindly next year.
Check in again soon for the results.
Johnny B.
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